The National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration recently organized a national climate trend conference this autumn (September to November 2022). After analysis and judgment, the main prediction conclusions were formed: It is expected that this autumn, easte

The National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration recently organized a national climate trend conference this autumn (September to November 2022). After analysis and judgment, the main prediction conclusions were formed: It is expected that this autumn, eastern Tibet, western and northern Southwest China, Eastern part of Northwest China, North China, Precipitation in southern and northwest Northeast China, northern Northeastern China, northwestern Central China, eastern Inner Mongolia, and southern South China is more than normal. The autumn rain in West China is generally stronger, but the spatial distribution is different. The remaining areas have close to normal to less precipitation, including Xinjiang. , central and southern China, and most of eastern China are 20% to 50% lower than normal, and there may be consecutive droughts in summer and autumn. It is expected that the temperature in most areas of my country will be close to normal to high, with temperatures in southern Qinghai, western Sichuan, Tibet and other places being 1 to 2°C higher, with large temperature variations within the season. In most parts of the north, the first frost date is later than usual. There are 8 to 10 typhoons generated in the northwest Pacific and the South China Sea, 2 to 3 of which will make landfall or significantly affect our country.

The specific predictions are as follows:

Xinjiang, central and southern China, and most of East China will have significantly less precipitation

It is expected that in the autumn of 2022, precipitation will be higher than normal in eastern Tibet, western and northern Southwest China, eastern Northwest China, North China, southern and northwestern Northeast China, northern Northeast China, northwestern Central China, eastern Inner Mongolia, and southern South China. Among them, West China Autumn rain is generally stronger, but the spatial distribution is different. Compared with the same period in normal years, the northeastern and southwestern Inner Mongolia, western Heilongjiang, southern Liaoning, most of Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shandong, northern Henan, northwest Hubei, northwest Chongqing, northern and western Sichuan, Qinghai The precipitation in eastern China, eastern Gansu, Ningxia, southern Guangdong, southeastern Guangxi, western Yunnan and eastern Tibet was higher than normal for the same period of the year. Among them, northwest Henan, Shaanxi and other places had more precipitation than the same period of the year. Most of western China, southern Ningxia, southeastern Gansu, eastern Qinghai, northern Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, southern Guangdong, southeastern Guangxi, Hainan and other places have an excess of 20% to 50%; the rest of the country has close to normal to less precipitation for the same period of the year, among which The number in eastern Hubei, southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, eastern Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, northern Fujian, northeastern Guangxi, and most of Xinjiang is 20% to 50% lower.

Temperatures in most parts of the country are expected to be close to normal to higher than normal for the same period of the year

This autumn, temperatures are expected to be close to normal to higher than normal for the same period of the year, with temperatures in southern Qinghai, western Sichuan, Tibet and other places being 1 to 2°C higher.

The date of first frost in most areas of northern my country is later than normal

Currently, most areas in northern my country have not yet experienced first frost. The estimated dates for the first frost in various northern regions are roughly: early September in northwest Heilongjiang and northeastern Inner Mongolia; mid-to-late September in northwest Heilongjiang, central-eastern Inner Mongolia, and northern Xinjiang; southern Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Beijing, and Tianjin, northern Hebei, most of Shanxi, northern Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, central and southern Xinjiang are in October; the rest of the north is after November.

Compared with normal years, except for northern Heilongjiang and northeastern Inner Mongolia, the first frost onset date is 1 to 3 days earlier. In most other areas of northern my country, the first frost start date is close to normal or later, including western Inner Mongolia, western Shanxi, northern Shaanxi, and Ningxia. , eastern Gansu, central and southern Xinjiang, northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu and other places are 3 to 5 days later.

There may be 2 to 3 typhoons making landfall or significantly affecting my country.

It is expected that 8 to 10 typhoons (central wind force ≥ 8) will be generated in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea this autumn, which is less than the same period in normal years (11); among them 2 to 3 landfalls may significantly affect my country, which is close to the same period of the year (2.3). The intensity of the typhoon is generally weak, and the main affected areas are the southern and eastern coastal areas.

source Beijing Daily client | reporter Luo Qianwen

editor Cai Wenqing

process editor Liu Weili