has three natural enemies in human history: war, famine, and plague. However, at the end of 2019, the sudden outbreak of the new crown epidemic broke out, which is the widest coverage and the most serious impact of social incident .
"Youth is only a few years, and the epidemic takes up three years." This sentence is widely circulated on the Internet, and netizens expressed their feelings in the face of the long-lasting COVID-19 epidemic. So, when will the new coronavirus disappear?
In the context of global fight against the epidemic, the emergence of the new mutant strain Omickron has undoubtedly exacerbated the pressure on various countries to fight the epidemic. Compared with the original new coronavirus, Omickron is more contagious and harms humans more.
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First of all, let’s understand why the new coronavirus is so difficult to prevent?
. The virus mutation speed is too fast
The structure of the virus is very simple - the protein shell wraps the genetic material, and the genetic material is only DNA or RNA. Once it enters the cell, the virus's DNA or RNA begins to replicate in large quantities. During the tens of thousands to hundreds of millions of replications, the virus will randomly experience replication errors, that is, mutations occur.
Generally speaking, RNA viruses are prone to mutate because they are single-stranded viruses. If there is a problem during the replication process, there is no other chain to correct it, so the mutation rate is relatively high. These viruses include coronavirus, influenza virus and hepatitis C virus, which is also one of the reasons why new coronavirus pneumonia is prone to mutate.
. High liquidity of personnel and goods
Professor of Nanjing University School of Social Sciences Chen Youhua said that the current degree of globalization is unprecedented in human history. The frequent flow of personnel and goods, as well as the differences in epidemic prevention strategies, concepts and abilities of different countries, have brought difficulties to epidemic prevention and control.
Although people can greatly reduce the spread of the disease and the number of deaths by strengthening personal protection, effective isolation and vaccination, the social and psychological impact of this epidemic has not weakened.
. The new coronavirus has strong infectivity
On Epidemiological , the basic infection number (R0) is an important indicator to measure the virus's infectious ability. The larger the R0 value, the stronger the virus's contagiousness. Currently, the new generation of delta mutant strain R0 has such strong transmission ability, as fast as chickenpox and smallpox.
strong transmission ability is a factor that makes it difficult for to eliminate the new coronavirus . In addition, there are many ways to transmit the new coronavirus, including food, frozen products, and respiratory transmission, making it more difficult to absolutely prevent the new coronavirus.
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At the time when will the new crown epidemic end? Experts have made a proposal, which is worthy of attention.
. Regarding the end time of the new crown epidemic that is of common concern to the global public, Chris Murray, Institute of Health Indicators and Assessment of the University of Washington, pointed out that the global COVID-19 pandemic is likely to end soon, marking the time point in March 2022. This move has attracted the attention of the Chinese people.
However, it is now the end of October 2022, and infection cases are still frequent in many places around the world. This cannot help but people lose confidence. Is the new crown epidemic really going to continue?
In this regard, my country's Lanzhou University Huang Jianping's team published an article "Is the Omickron epidemic about to end" in the "Xinchuang" newspaper, and predicted that the new crown pandemic will end around November 2023.
This prediction system is a prediction made by analyzing epidemic data from more than 180 countries and repeatedly optimizing the data.
However, this prediction result is just an approximate estimate given by experts. In addition, each country has different measures and methods for the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic. Everyone has a different attitude towards the new crown virus, so it will affect the end time of the new crown virus.
No matter when the new coronavirus ends, we should take personal protection. This is not only for ourselves, but also for the country.
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winter is coming, will the low temperature make the new coronavirus more easily spread?
There is a saying about the spread and survival of the new coronavirus: the new coronavirus is naturally cold, and the lower the temperature, the longer it will survive. So, will the cold winter become a new "hotbed" of the new coronavirus?
First of all, we need to know that the new coronavirus does like cold, but its infectivity will also be affected. The low temperature of will indeed prolong the survival time of the new coronavirus in the environment, but it does not mean that it is a "hotbed".
There is a shell of protein on the outermost part of the new coronavirus. The protein will denaturate in high temperatures, alcohol , ether , and strong acid environments, thus preventing the possibility of viral membrane proteins fusion with cell membrane , causing the virus to soon lose its biological activity.
Epidemiology chief expert Wu Zunyou, a researcher, once said that the survival time of the new coronavirus in a frozen environment depends on the amount of pollution and the temperature. Generally speaking, at minus 1-10 degrees Celsius, the new coronavirus, a type of virus can survive for several weeks to several months.
However, any living organism has its own tolerant temperature. Although viruses can tolerate low temperatures, their ability to replicate and reproductive will gradually decline, but these abilities will not disappear, and the same is true for the new coronavirus.
The large-scale and continuous low temperature in winter can indeed prolong the survival time of the new coronavirus in the environment. Its effect is like a natural cold chain, but as the ambient temperature drops, its infectivity will inevitably decrease.
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In the current epidemic situation, improving immunity is the key
. Balanced diet
Under the epidemic, we should pay more attention to diet adjustments. We should try to ensure that we consume enough fresh fruits and vegetables every day; eat more high-quality protein foods, such as milk, eggs, soy products, fish, shrimp, etc. For children, adequate intake of high-quality protein is an important factor in improving children's immunity.
. Ensure adequate sleep
Long-term lack of sleep will increase the risk of suffering from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases , depression , diabetes and obesity, while also damaging memory and immune system. Therefore, it is advisable to pay attention to sleep, ensure sufficient sleep for at least 7 hours a day, and you also need to rest for about 30 minutes at noon to keep your body a normal biological clock.
. Appropriate exercise
Exercise can promote the body's blood circulation, improve metabolism, and help enhance individual immune function. However, due to the outbreak of the epidemic, home stays are highly restricted. But the longer you stay at home, the more you should exercise. When you sit at home for a long time on weekdays, you might as well stand up and walk around. You can also do some aerobics , which are beneficial to improving the body's immunity.
Of course, it is also important to keep a calm mind, optimistic and cheerful!
Avoid anxiety and view the new crown epidemic correctly. There is no need to panic too much. You can choose listening to music, reading, playing chess, calligraphy, painting, planting flowers and plants based on your personal hobbies and conditions. We should learn to relax and reduce stress.
Follow the authoritative media to publish information, do not believe in rumors, do not spread rumors, and reduce panic and worry. Use modern communication methods to connect with relatives and friends and maintain communication with society.
