It has been nearly three years since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020. With the emergence of delta , Omickron and Omickron mutant, the mutated new coronavirus has repeatedly aggravated the spread of the epidemic. The pandemic has had too much impact on the world, with the COVID-19 pandemic leading to the largest global recession since the Great Depression, the second largest global recession in recent history. The service industry's business declined during the COVID-19 lockdown, and supply chain disruptions caused widespread supply shortages, including food or goods shortages. Many educational institutions and public places have been partially or entirely closed, and many activities have been cancelled or postponed. The COVID-19 pandemic has also changed the lifestyle of many people, such as wearing masks when going out, going to crowded places, and doing nucleic acid. In short, the impact of this new crown epidemic on people is really too great. I believe many people want to know when the new crown epidemic will end?
Chinese scientists predict the end time of the COVID-19 pandemic
Lanzhou University published a entitled "Is the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 about to end? 》 article. Researchers used the global forecasting system model of the COVID-19 pandemic to predict the development of the new crown pandemic. The forecast results show that by November 2023, the number of COVID-19 cases around the world will drop to about 3,000 per day. As more countries announce easing restrictions and restoring social life, it can be said that the COVID-19 pandemic will come to an end in November 2023.
"Is the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 about to end? 》Article screenshot
"Is the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 about to end? 》Article screenshot
The article also stated that although the forecast results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic will end in November 2023, it cannot be overemphasized that this result is based on the latest developments in the COVID-19 pandemic, and more specifically, the result focuses on the possible consequences caused by the Omicron variant. If more propagated variants appear, the results need to be adjusted accordingly. , so everyone should know here that one of the main variables that affect the future development of the epidemic is whether there will be stronger new crown variants in the future. Why does
virus mutate?
virus is an infectious microorganism, composed of a segment of nucleic acid (DNA or RNA) surrounded by the shell of protein . The virus cannot replicate alone, it must infect the cells and use components of the host cell to replicate itself. Usually, the virus ends up killing the host cell in the process, causing damage to the host organism. Viruses that cause human diseases include AIDS , measles and smallpox. Viruses exist in almost every ecosystem on Earth and are the largest number of biological entities.
There are still different opinions in the scientific community about whether a virus is a life form or an organic structure that interacts with living organisms. Viruses are generally described as "organisms at the edge of life" because they are similar to organisms because they possess genes, evolve through natural selection, and reproduce by self-assembly creating multiple copies of themselves. Although they have genes, they do not have cellular structure , which is often regarded as the basic unit of life. Viruses do not have their own metabolism and require host cells to make new products. Therefore, they cannot reproduce naturally outside the host cell, although some bacteria, such as Rickettsia and Chlamydia ( rickettsia is a class of strictly intracellular parasitic prokaryotic microorganisms ), despite the same limitations, are still considered living organisms. The recognized life form uses cell division to reproduce, while the virus is spontaneously assembled in the cell. They are different from the autonomous growth of crystal because they inherit gene mutations while being affected by natural selection.
Although viruses may cause diseases and even death to organisms, some viruses have accelerated the evolution of organisms. studies have found that an antiviral protein in humans and other primates triggers an outbreak of gene mutations, which may accelerate the evolution of our species. Human genome contains billions of information and about 22,000 genes, but strictly speaking, not all genes are human. 8% of our DNA consists of residues of ancient viruses, and another 40% consists of repeated strings of genetic letters, which are also believed to have viral origins.
Virus mutation —Mutations are normal phenomena of viruses. When the genetic material that constitutes the virus changes, viral mutations will occur. The way viruses survive is to copy more copies of themselves over time, so the error in how these copies are made is part of the process. While most mutations are “meaningless,” there are some that can give the virus an advantage.
The RNA virus mutation speed is generally much faster than that of DNA viruses. DNA is a molecule that is more stable than RNA, and DNA viruses will undergo proofreading during their reproduction. If a virus makes an error while replicating DNA, the host cell can usually correct the error. Therefore, DNA viruses generally do not undergo much change or mutation. However, RNA is an unstable molecule, and RNA virus does not have built-in proofreading steps during its replication. Errors in replicating RNA often occur and host cells do not correct these errors. The current new coronavirus is an RNA virus. Although its mutation rate is lower than that of influenza virus, it is indeed higher than that of DNA virus.
So if there is a stronger mutation in the new coronavirus in the future, it may affect the end time of the new coronavirus pandemic. However, with the popularity of vaccines around the world and the emergence of special drugs, I believe that the COVID-19 pandemic will eventually end in the near future. The above is what we have today. I am Huo Zongjun, see you next time. #Taiwan added 28,847 new confirmed cases and 53 deaths#
