From the "poverty alleviation" in 2019 to the "auction theory" in 2020, Nobel Prize in Economics , this previously only far-sighted award is becoming more and more universal.
In the current period of repeated plagues by the new crown epidemic, the recovery of the world economy is slow and uneven. After more than a year of "release", the global debt risk is even more looming. This also made the selection committee this year’s economic award winners The choice, there are more references.
Popular candidates
So far, except for economics, all other prizes of the 2021 Nobel Prize have been announced, and they are commonly known as the Nobel Prize in Economics. Sweden Central Bank Memorial Alfred Nobel Prize in Economics will announce the winners of 2021 as early as October 11, Beijing time.
In fact, the award is not in Nobel’s will. It is an additional award set up by the Swedish National Bank in 1968 to commemorate Nobel. The bonus also originated from the Swedish central bank’s contribution to Nobel on the 300th anniversary of its founding. Donation from the foundation . Because the selection process and award ceremony are similar to the Nobel Prize in other natural sciences, the outside world also habitually calls it the "Nobel Prize in Economics."
In predicting the winners, an economics researcher told a reporter from Beijing Business Daily that the Nobel Economics Prize in the past 10 years tends to be more frequent in institutional economics and information economics. In 2018, Paul Romer , Nordhaus began to pay attention to the field of macro growth. The global economic turmoil in the past two years has hindered globalization and economic development. This year's Nobel Prize may be awarded to macroeconomics master Robert Barlow or John Taylor , Or Phillips, an econometric economist.
In terms of institutional platforms, the most authoritative source of forecasts is currently recognized as the "Citation Laureate Award" issued by Thomson Reuters .The award is based on the number of citations in the paper, and the accuracy of quantitative predictions of Nobel Prize winners has always been trusted. From 2002 to 2020, among the more than 300 winners of the Citation Laureate Award, 59 have won the Nobel Prize.
The 2021 Citation Laureate Award was officially announced on September 22. The economics awards were awarded to five economists, and they are therefore considered to be popular candidates for the Nobel Prize in Economics this year.
First of all, economists David Andrech and David Tees won the award for their "groundbreaking research on entrepreneurship, innovation, and competition." At the same time, economics and historian Joel Mokire also won awards for his "historical and cultural studies of technological progress and its economic consequences."
In addition, the 2021 Economic Citation Laureate Award was awarded to economists Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff in recognition of their “contributions to the international macro economy and to the global debt and financial crisis. Insights".
In addition to scholars from the United States, an Asian economist has also received much attention. Many national economic researchers believe that it may only be a matter of time before the Japanese economist Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Nobuhiro Kiyotaki) won the award.
Other professionals pointed out that if Nobel Kiyotaki wins the Nobel Prize in Economics, he is likely to share this award with John Moore, professor of London School of Economics (LSE), because the two jointly established The “Kiyotaki-Moore” model named after it describes how “a small shock to the economy can lead to a decline in the value of collateral, a restricted credit environment, and a downward cycle of output”.
Focus on global debt
Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff have attracted much attention in the multi-person selection of predictions because of their unique insights into global debt and financial crises. Carmen Reinhart was born in Cuba and is now Harvard Professor of International Financial System at the Kennedy School of Political Science, and is also the chief economist of World Bank .Kenneth Rogoff is a professor of financial economics at Harvard University and served as the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.
In fact, both Reinhardt and Rogoff were witnesses and reflectors of the 2008 financial crisis. The investment bank of Bear Stearns, where Reinhardt once worked, went bankrupt during the financial crisis and was eventually sold to Morgan. Chase. The two co-published the book "This Time Is Different: Financial Stupidity in Eight Centuries", which studied the similarities between the great booms and the Great Depressions in the history of human finance, and was highly praised by the academic circles and the industry.
And right now, the world is facing the risk of a return to the debt crisis. According to a report released by the International Financial Research Association, in the second quarter of 2021, the total global debt reached 296 trillion US dollars, approaching the 300 trillion US dollar mark, compared with the global debt of 230 trillion US dollars in 2017, a rapid increase of 28.7%. At the same time, the proportion of total global debt in GDP in 2020 has risen to 355%, far exceeding the 2008 financial crisis, and the first quarter of 2021 set a record of 362%.
For such high data, China Institute of Modern International Relations American Research Institute Associate Researcher Sun Lipeng analyzed that since the outbreak, many economies in the world have continuously cut interest rates, and the currency has been released. Turn into the corresponding debt problem.
In the 1980s and the beginning of the 21st century, the economies of developing countries in Central America and developed countries in Europe encountered extremely serious debt system crises. Awareness of economic development.
For example, the debt crisis in Greece is still vivid. In December 2009, Greece announced that the government’s fiscal deficit in 2009 is expected to reach 12.7% of GDP, far exceeding the upper limit set by the European Union. The world’s three major credit rating agencies downgraded the sovereign credit rating of Greece’s , Greek debt The crisis broke out,It also detonated the European debt crisis, and Greece even saw a bank run in 2012.
The United States swells the soup to stop boiling
At the time when the undercurrent of the global debt crisis is surging, the United States has just experienced a roller coaster of debt default. Just last week, the US Senate Majority Leader Schumer announced that legislators have reached an agreement on raising the short-term debt ceiling, extending the debt ceiling until early December.
Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has repeatedly warned that October 18 this year is the deadline for repayment. If Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling in time before October 18, the U.S. government will happen. The first debt default in history had disastrous consequences.
The so-called debt ceiling is the maximum amount of debt set by the US Congress for the US federal government. Once the line is crossed, it means that the US government's borrowing authorization has been exhausted. If the authorization is exhausted, the debt and interest owed will not be repaid, the US government will default, ranging from the shutdown of the government to the US financial crisis , spreading to the world.
Because of the debt ceiling, the Carter administration has shut down five times, and the Reagan administration has been forced to shut down eight times. Even the Clinton administration, which is the most responsible government in borrowing, also closed twice in 1995 because of the debt ceiling.
Although the Republican Party finally made concessions, allowing the United States to temporarily tide over the debt crisis, for the United States, this may be just a temporary solution rather than a permanent cure. Sun Lipeng pointed out that the agreement did not bridge the differences between the two parties in the United States on broader issues, and the impasse over raising the debt ceiling may be protracted. In December, the United States will face another catastrophic breach of contract.
Once the US debt defaults, it may cause a chain reaction in the US. Some analysts said that there may be a greater financial crisis than in 2008. It is estimated that this will cause US$15 trillion in wealth to evaporate and 6 million people will lose their jobs.
In addition, the purchasing power of many overseas people who use the U.S. dollar as a reliable store of value will also decline. Wu Jiu, founder of Ruizi Investment Club, said,Assuming that the US debt has a technical default and it is difficult to solve the debt ceiling problem for a long time, the US can carry out debt restructuring and the US dollar may depreciate significantly. For countries that hold U.S. debt, they face a write-down of foreign exchange assets and an appreciation of the local currency.
IPG China Chief Economist Bai Wenxi pointed out that if the United States defaults on debt, it will cause the price of U.S. Treasuries to fall sharply and cause the foreign exchange assets of these foreign governments or institutions that hold U.S. Treasury assets to be substantially devalued, which will lead to these The balance sheets of foreign governments or institutions are unbalanced and trigger a liquidity crisis, which in turn triggers systemic risks in the fiscal and financial systems of these countries, which will lead to chaos in the world's financial markets, and may trigger a worldwide financial crisis and even an economic crisis.
Wells Fargo also wrote in the report that investors underestimated the impact of the debt ceiling crisis, and the market may fall into the turmoil of 2011. It is worth mentioning that it was the debt ceiling crisis that year that caused Standard & Poor's to downgrade the sovereign credit rating of the United States, which caused the global financial market to fall into a hedging mode. Beijing Commercial Daily reporter Tao Feng and Zhao Tianshu
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