Beijing time on October 4th, the world officially entered the 2021 Nobel Prize "drawing time".
After giving out the Physiology or Medicine Prize , the Physics Prize, the Chemistry Prize, the Three Natural Science Prizes, the Literature Prize and the Peace Prize, according to the plan, the Nobel Prize Jury Committee of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences will be held in Beijing time. On October 11, the winners of the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics were announced.
It has always been difficult to predict the new Nobel Prize winners every year. But looking back at history may help you to explore the awards ideas of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences-who have been awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in the past 5 years?
2016, keywords: contract theory
In 2016, Oliver Hart and Bent Helmstrom won the Nobel Prize in Economics for their "contributions to contract theory." But in the forecast that year, World Bank chief economist Paul Romer , and former IMF chief economist Oliver Blanchard had the highest voice. Therefore, when the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced the list of awards, the economists who everyone jokingly called "forgotten" won the Nobel Prize.
The so-called "contract theory" provides a general method for contract design. The first main goal of this theory is to explain why contracts have multiple forms and design methods. The second main goal is to help us design better contracts to form a better system in society. For example, should schools and hospitals be publicly owned or privately owned, and to what extent can managers get paid from bonus plans or stock options.
Fudan University School of Economics Dean Zhang Jun once told the Jiefang Daily·Shangguan reporter that Oliver Hart’s theory had many practical impacts on China in the 1990s, such as promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises and innovating corporate incentive mechanisms. Wait. "At this point in 2016, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to two economists who studied the theory of corporate contracts.It is a retrospective recognition of his achievements, not a prescription for current economic problems. "
2017, keywords: behavioral economics
In 2017, due to his contribution to "behavioral economics", professor Richard Taylor won the Nobel Economics for his contribution to "behavioral economics" Academic Award.
Richard Taylor is known as the "Father of Behavioral Economics" and an important pioneer in the field of modern behavioral economics and behavioral finance. The 2002 Nobel Prize winner in economics and a well-known behavioral economist card Neiman once attributed his award to Taylor, saying that he was "the first scholar who introduced psychology into economics and created behavioral economics."
However, for a long time, Taylor was the most controversial in the world One of the economists in, the focus of the controversy stems from his tendency to emphasize the inconsistency between facts and authoritative traditional economic theories. In fact, the economic research methods advocated by Taylor have a long history, such as Marshall and Keynes Economists often reflect on the economic theories at that time from the perspective of people’s daily behavior.
After World War II, economists emphasized mathematical results and research conclusions under idealized assumptions, but in fact many economic phenomena and facts are not In this way. Therefore, Taylor calls on economists from the perspective of psychology to free themselves from the idealization hypothesis, and continue the traditional economics that began with Adam Smith.
Taylor has studied many real economic worlds. However, he clarified that the purpose of research is not to subvert traditional economic theories, but to hope that scholars will have a cognition of abnormalities and use this to promote the continuous improvement of traditional economic theories. Taylor’s thinking on abnormal phenomena has also aroused people Thinking about economic theory, that is, when the existing economic theories cannot guide decision-making well, people begin to pay more attention to human behavior, constantly questioning and thinking, to make up for the shortcomings of existing economic theories.
2018,Keywords: Macroeconomics
In 2018, , which has always been loudly called, New York University Stern School of Business Professor Paul Romer finally and Yale University Professor William Nordhaus Introduced "technological innovation" and "climate change" into the long-term macroeconomic analysis framework and won the Nobel Prize in Economics.
Why is the Nobel Prize in Economics awarded to William Nordhaus and Paul Romer in recent years? "Because the research results of the two of them have pointed out a direction that can maintain sustained and stable growth for today's stagnant world economy." The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Nobel Prize Jury replied.
All domestic economists sighed after learning of the award-winning results. Although Paul Romer's " endogenous growth theory" was born nearly 30 years ago, its theoretical model can fully guide the structure that China was advancing at that time Sexual reform and "mass entrepreneurship and innovation." "Paul Romer’s model shows that if enough knowledge is to be produced and to exert positive externalities, it is necessary to protect and encourage the motivation to produce knowledge. This also tells us that while conducting R&D and technological innovation, we must improve The protection system of intellectual property rights is equally important."
2019, keyword: poverty alleviation
In 2019, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced that it would award the Nobel Prize in Economics to reward "experimental practices in reducing global poverty." Awarded to Abigail Banerkin, Esther Dufro and Michael Kleiman. Among them, Abigail Banerkin and Esther Dubrov are a couple, and Esther Dubrov also became the youngest Nobel Prize winner in economics so far.
Prior to 2019, the Nobel Prize in Economics was called the "elderly" award by economics circles because the winners were all very old, with an average age of nearly 70 years old. "The previous winners are older because their research results need time to test." Esther Duflo also said during the award line.However, the three economists who won the Nobel Prize in 2019 changed development economics in just two decades through experimental methods and brought it into a stage of vigorous development.
From the observation of human development experience since the 20th century, only with globalization can developed economies and developing economies go hand in hand; but at the same time, globalization does often go hand in hand with the deepening of poverty within an economy. The wealth gap is associated with it, and this has led to the current increasingly serious trade protectionism, which in turn endangers global development. Domestic economists said that from the inequality issue that Nobel Prize judges began to pay attention to in 2015 to the poverty issue that is further concerned today, it shows that the judges have been paying attention to the very important social issues although they "study the minority".
2020, keyword: auction theory
In 2020, Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson shared the Nobel Prize for "improving auction theory and inventing new auction formats" Economics Prize, this is the second time that the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has awarded the prize to "Auction Theory".
In 1996, American economist William Vickrey won the Nobel Prize for the first time for auction theory. William Vickery’s theory focuses on “private value auctions”, where each buyer’s evaluation of the product has nothing to do with the opinions of others. In popular words, it is an auction of "everyone loves radish and green vegetables".
Electricity price paid by enterprises, 5G spectrum use rights, real estate market, financial market price discovery...In real life, auctions are ubiquitous and have become one of the most common resource allocation methods in the market economy, affecting people at all times life. "Because auctions are so important, how to design auction formats is critical." The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences stated in the award speech that Robert Wilson and Paul Milgrom's research helped people design better in complex scenarios. The auction mechanism will benefit the entire society.
Robert Wilson and Paul Milgrom developed William Vickery’s auction theory. They proposed the "common value auction" in the 1980s.That is, due to the resale value of the subject matter, the bid of each bidder depends on the value of other bidders. "Such auctions are more common and closer to reality, such as financial markets, real estate markets, etc. Therefore, the innovative auction theories of the two economists have quickly been applied to many fields around the world." Economics researchers commented.
In China, the auction theory of Robert Wilson and Paul Milgrom has also been applied to research by related scholars. Economics researcher Huang Shaoqing once introduced that he and his collaborator Xu Xiaoshu and others used auction theory to study the relationship between politics and business in China's transition phase, and obtained some interesting discoveries. "Thanks to the research findings of these two winners, we have theoretical tools in the applied research of the Chinese economy. At the same time, it also allows us to see our own shortcomings-compared with the frontier scholars of international economics, there are theoretical research Gap."
2021, keyword: Can Asian economists win the prize?
Who will receive the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2021?
Many national economic researchers believe that it may only be a matter of time before the Japanese economist Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Nobuhiro Kiyotaki) won the award.
The model proposed by Nobuhiro Kiyotaki provides a microeconomic foundation for macroeconomic research and plays an important role in the new Keynesian macroeconomics. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki also worked with Oliver Blanchard to find that there is a deviation between private and social incentives, partly because of the external effect of aggregate demand: a company that lowers the price of its products will increase its real currency balance. Stimulate demand for all corporate products.
Another professional pointed out that if Shinhiro Kiyotaki wins the Nobel Prize in Economics, he is most likely to share this award with London School of Economics (LSE) Professor John Moore, because the two jointly established The “Kiyotaki-Moore” model named after it describes “how a small impact on the economy can lead to a decline in the value of collateral and a limited credit environment.Thus stepping into the downward cycle of output".
column editor: Xu Meng Text editor: Zhang Yu Title image source: Xinhua News Agency Picture editor: Su Wei
source: author: Zhang Yu
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