Since there are no authoritative statistics, we don’t know how many people are currently infected. We also don’t know how many people are asymptomatic, how many have mild symptoms, and how many have severe symptoms after infection.
Judging from the current situation, many people have obvious symptoms after infection. It takes about a week from infection to recovery. The main symptom is high fever, followed by cough. If the elderly, frail patients or people with underlying diseases are infected, the risk is greatly increased. This is completely different from the understanding we generally got from Fangcang Hospital or the quarantined people before the relaxation. Since the symptoms are so obvious, why not slowly let go after the Spring Festival? Or there are three reasons.
01, virus is much less lethal and more contagious
We have been fighting the epidemic for three years, and have become accustomed to 24-hour nucleic acid testing every day. We prepare the nucleic acid test results in advance when going to other places, check whether the health code is normal, and whether the itinerary card has records of medium and high-risk areas. Although it is troublesome, it improves everyone's health protection. If any region does not conduct inspections carefully and conscientiously, it may even be complained that the epidemic prevention is not done well.
At present, the virus has mutated many times, and most people have received three shots of the new crown vaccine , which makes them more resistant to the virus. Although they are still uncomfortable after infection, the lethality of the virus has been greatly reduced.
At the same time, the contagiousness of the virus has greatly increased. Some people have described it as having "super-spreading power." I think it is really appropriate. Looking at the people around me, one after another has a fever. Although I don't know whether it is a "sheep", I can make a guess, at least there is a 99% probability. Because the contagion is too strong, the original prevention and control methods used in various places have failed to achieve the expected results. Moreover, isolation requires a large amount of manpower, material and financial resources.
In addition, foreign countries have already experienced liberalization, and some experts have also said that we must be prepared to coexist with the virus. If this virus continues, it is not an option to continue to control it like this. Although some people are opposed to letting go, maybe there is no other way to let go, otherwise letting go would not come so suddenly.
02. If the economy wants to develop, the finances may not be able to sustain it.
To be honest, although the three years of control have protected the health of the vast majority of people, especially the weak. But at the same time, economic development has been very slow in the past three years, and it is also difficult to achieve the 5.5% economic growth target in 2022. In the past three years, due to the strict control, many people have lost their jobs, lost their income, and have fallen into trouble in their lives. If the strict control is implemented for a few months, everyone may support it. If the strict control is implemented for one year, everyone can overcome the difficulties and get through it. But after three years of strict control, many people can no longer afford to pay off their mortgages and car loans. It is not ruled out that some people will go to extremes. In the long run, social costs will increase.
When the economy develops hard, the government will be short of money. Although it is not clear how much money each locality has spent on epidemic control, it is certainly not a small amount. In most areas, the cost of isolation, isolation warehouse construction, and frequent nucleic acid testing are ultimately paid by the local finance. With fiscal revenue reduced, a lot of money has to be spent on epidemic control, and the finance may not be able to bear it.
Especially the mutated strain, the spread is too strong. Before the release, various places were increasing investment in establishing Fangcang hospitals and isolation points. However, the prevention of the virus did not achieve the expected effect, and the number of infections in various places continued to increase.
If we liberalize now, although the number of infections will increase significantly, experts predict that the infection rate in the first wave will even exceed 80%. The impact on economic development may be greater within 3 months after liberalization. However, after 3 months, the weather will gradually get warmer, and the first quarter of 2023 will not end. This will create conditions for economic development in 2023.
Vietnam’s liberalization experience can also provide reference. After two years of strict control, Vietnam's economy hit bottom and was forced to relax at the beginning of this year. According to data, Vietnam's economic growth reached 7.7% in the second quarter and 13.6% in the third quarter.
03. The peak of urban infections is basically December, and the end date is before the Spring Festival in January 2023. Normal life can basically start.
According to the real-time data on December 24 provided by the "Pulse Data Group", many cities including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Chongqing and other cities have passed the peak of the first round of infections, and the end date of the first round of infections is basically before the Spring Festival in 2023. After the Spring Festival, the most difficult stage after the liberalization has basically passed, and the basic lives of the people will gradually be restored. Academician Zhong Nanshan also made the latest prediction that the epidemic will return to a stable stage in early March next year and return to pre-epidemic levels in the first half of next year. If the prediction is accurate, the second half of next year will usher in great economic development. According to the principle of low base effect, the growth rate in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 will be very fast, which will help achieve the economic growth target in 2023. In reality, and Baoding , which were released earlier, have basically returned to normal life. Although there is still some distance from the prosperity of the past, it is just around the corner.
Therefore, whether from a realistic perspective or a future perspective, there are still many benefits to liberalizing now rather than slowly liberalizing next year. It is the lesser of two evils and the greater of two benefits. After all, liberalization is an inevitable choice. At the same time, any method of epidemic prevention cannot satisfy everyone 100%. Some people are opposed to letting go, which is normal. We have been dealing with the epidemic for three years and hope it will end as soon as possible.
The above are purely personal opinions and are expressed based on feelings. You are welcome to like, follow, collect and comment so that ordinary people can understand the opinions of ordinary people.
