The cause and effect that determines national actions comes from three elements: interests, security and honor. Interests are the driving force of action, safety is the feedback of motivation, and honor is the projection of interests and security among the people.

When I was taking politics class in high school, my excellent politics teacher said this to me!

determines the cause and effect of national actions from three elements: interests, security and honor.

Interests are the driving force of action, security is the feedback of motivation, and honor is the projection of interests and security among the people.

Interests and security are issues that the state considers.

But the reason why the state exists is because the common consciousness is based on the influence of individuals, and the projection of this influence is honor.

The sense of honor is inevitable to bond people's hearts.

The so-called public opinion may be like this.

(sense of honor)

Thinking back today, I still thought of this, and my admiration arises naturally.

Later, I read more and more books. When I was reading the biography of Bismarck, I read another sentence.

Bismarck believes that the main factor that determines the relationship between countries is that "the common ideology and the target of foreign policy is that the real interests."

Two more keywords are said here!

The first is : a common ideology.

The second is : real interests. How do you understand

?

If the German leaders understood this today, they might not have followed the United States and became a vassal, right?

But everything has its own attribution , and the ideological and realistic interests are in line with the political teacher’s three elements of national action, “interests, security, and honor”. What are the benefits of

? Based on the core concerns of reality. What is the security of

? Perhaps it is some kind of correctness, that is, ideology.

As for honor? It is a collection of some correct ideas. The collection of ideas of

has given the public a consensus and is likely to force out irrational actions of the ruling people.

So where is the value of "common ideology" in diplomacy? Is it still unchanged?

Here we need to look at the Bismarck story, and there is still a war response, and continue to think about it.

(Bismar)

In Bismarck's "Thinking and Memories: Bismarck's Memoirs", there is a passage:

849, Austrian Empire was in a hurry, and Tsar Nikola sent 150,000 troops to support her, helping her rebuild the power of the monarch. If you raise any interests and compensation, you will not mention the Eastern issue and the Polish issue that has huge disputes between the two countries...

This kind of unpaid friendship has exceeded the scope of interest politics, and can only be explained based on the shared principle of monarchy...

This war took place after the Napoleonic War . At that time, there was also some correctness in the European monarchy countries.

That is to maintain the European monarchy, prevent the revolutionary ideals spread by the French Revolution in Europe, and put Europe in a pattern of balance of power.

(Napoleon era)

Based on this, Holy Alliance appeared.

815 At the beginning of the establishment of the Holy Alliance, the only countries participating were Tsarist Russia, Austria , and Prussia . The following year, Britain felt that the alliance was very good. Although it was a constitutional monarchy country, it also clamored to join. A few years after Britain joined, the restoration of the French Bourbon dynasty also chose to join.

Finally, this sacred alliance became the strongest national organization covering the five major European powers.

So what is connected to the sacred alliance bond?

Let’s look at the content they started: The three kingdoms belong to the “three branches of the same family” under God’s rule. The monarchs of the three kingdoms “rescue each other” with “brothers and solemns”. Guide subjects and soldiers to defend religion, peace and justice, and require the people to abide by their doctrines and perform their duties. Does this high-end language,

, have the flavor of today?

This is some kind of correctness, the earliest interpretation in Europe.

(the European territory at that time)

Specifically Tsarist Russian interferes with Austria's war.

The Austrian Empire was a multi-ethnic monarchy in Europe at that time, because the imperial royal family was a famous territorial stitching monster, marriage expert Habsburg family . This has always caused the empire to be divided, especially after the Great Revolution spread new ideas, which made it even bigger.

maintains the dominance of the Habsburg family, which is gradually outdated under the impact of thought trends. An empire like

is actually inconsistent with Tsarist Russia, a country with a habit of collecting land.

is too loose, and there is a possibility of splitting once you fool it.

From this perspective, we can see that the Austrian Empire is particularly vigilant about Tsarist Russia, which is also the historical root of the two countries fighting in the Balkans before the first battle of and finally triggering World War I.

But at that moment, Tsarist Russia could not afford any reward, and using the national army to help the Austrian Empire was undoubtedly something worth thinking about.

(Sacred King Alexander I)

To understand this, we must look at the general background of Europe at that time, and then reflect on the present.

The background is the turbulent trend of revolutionary thoughts, and various movements swept across Europe. The trend of

has become an existence that transcends national interests and has also become the biggest threat to shake the European monarchy. Compared with the actual national interests, the security of the monarchy is undoubtedly more important.

Therefore, Austria and Tsarist Russia have given up their national interests.

Before the Napoleonic War, the most powerful Austrian diplomat, Menett, could not ignore national interests and participate in the anti-French alliance and attack Napoleon, so that a greater threat to Tsarist Russia would become its ally. Tsarist Russia was able to give up its territorial demands, and after Austria encountered a crisis, it was the case that it sent troops to quell the rebellion.

At that moment, Tsarist Russia and Austria were typical allies that were aggregated together based on ideology. They had a common goal and some correctness, stifling the revolutionary movement in Europe, maintaining the monarchy, and allowing Europe to balance the power and balance.

(Crimean War)

So why is this special relationship based on the sacred alliance so alienated so much that it becomes enemies?

The answer is that the growth and decline of national strength and the common goals have changed after time precipitation.

This is a measurement problem!

When national interests exceed their own security needs, the relationship between the two parties will be reversed.

Based on this, Tsarist Russia suffered a crushing defeat in the Crimean War in 1956.

After Tsarist Russia was a European gendarmerie for decades, there were many domestic problems. Seeing that domestic conflicts were not diverted and if they did not expand, problems would arise. Therefore, Tsarist Russia, who was accustomed to war, chose to attack Ottoman Turkey.

's move was like poking a hornet's nest.

Because Tsarist Russia this time is preparing to directly expand its influence to Mediterranean and Balkan , which appeals to the core interests of Britain, France and Austria.

This also makes the foundation of the existence of the Holy Alliance.

checks and balance patterns have been destroyed!

Tsarist Russia has become a game-breaker, which has also made the maintenance of the monarchy a certain correctness, which has lost its effectiveness.

National interests become more important than collective security, because if collective security is accommodated, it means that Tsarist Russia will become bigger, causing Europe to lose its balance of power, and eventually the threat will become greater.

Therefore, under the joint attack of Britain, France and Austria, Tsarist Russia became a tragic loser.

(dimensionality reduction strike)

A dimensionality reduction strike at the technological level made Tsarist Russia understand that it was lagging behind the times. A crushing defeat in the West also made Tsarist Russia look at the attacking eyes on the East. Qing suffered, and even more, Tsarist Russia, which learned from the pain, started the era of serfdom reform and began the rhythm of catching up.

After reading this history, German Prime Minister Bismarck clearly realized that the boundary between national interests and collective security is the grasp of this degree that tests the wisdom of politicians.

's reflection later guided Bismarck's actions, and then a brilliant diplomatic plan was released.

(Bismar)

That is to take the chestnut from the fire, and play Franco-Prussian War in a way that is a textbook.

The rise of Germany is a major event that affects Europe.

With the rise of Germany, France, the former European hegemony, gradually lost its glory as it used to be.

can be seen from the data comparing the strength of both parties.

Not long after the end of the Napoleonic War in 1820, the population of Prussia was only one-third of that of France. However, in 1870 when the French-Prussian War broke out, the population of the North German Federation of (Prussia) that completed the two dynasties had reached about 80% of France. After the population comparison of

, Prussia's steel production surpassed France in 1870.

This made Prussia, which is known for its bravery, have an army that surpasses France with a smaller population.

For a moment, the French exclaimed, why did their former small lord become a behemoth?

and The queen of talked more than once, fearing herself, "was still a French when she fell asleep, but when she woke up, she became a Prussian ".

How to say this situation is equivalent to the European overlord France suffering from "university-phobia", and even the queen is a patient.

(Napoleon III)

Based on this, the confidence of the elder Moltke, the Chief of the General Staff of the Prussian General.

He said to Bismarck : Lao Bi, don’t worry, I have calculated that as long as the war starts, I can defeat the French 100% sure.

When Bismarck heard this, he felt confident.

But Bismarck, who is well versed in the story of the Holy Alliance and understands the rules of balance between continental power and balance, understands that this matter cannot be too hasty, leave a handle for other major powers, and cannot let his country become a victim because of some correctness.

is a kind of correct thing, that is, Europe cannot have a superpower that dominates one side.

The country that once wanted to do this was France, so he was attacked one after another and became a bear in the era of Napoleon III.

The country that wanted to do this later was Tsarist Russia, so a Crimean War made Tsarist Russia the target of European public criticism. How to do

? Bismarck thought for a moment and found a solution.

is not advisable to take the initiative to attack, which is equivalent to openly announces one's ambitions, and is also vulnerable to interference from other powerful countries, and eventually leads to Germany being beaten up in groups.

So, isn’t it enough to use the method of overcoming honor to make the French unable to resist the attack?

(similar story)

has said before that the three elements that determine national actions are "interests, security, and honor".

interests are personal concerns, and this security includes two meanings: national security and some correctness. As for honor, it is a force based on a collection of public opinion and aggregation.

What would have happened if Bismarck at that time had ignored it and initiated a war?

's answer is that he may reap the national interests he needs and complete the unification of Germany, but the greater possibility is that he will encounter a group fight led by other European powers, especially Britain, based on the balance of power in Europe. If he is defeated in such a situation, how can he talk about honor?

Prussia is like this, what will happen if France takes the initiative to attack?

As a European established country, France is actually in a particularly embarrassing state. If it does not curb the development of Prussia, France will sink step by step, but whether the containment policy is effective is the French Emperor Napoleon III.

The proud Frenchman looked down on the nouveau riche Prussia because of his long-term European overlord's illusion and innate pride. This is equivalent to a sense of honor and is easily provoked.

Public opinion is prone to being provoked, so Bismarck avoids being the first to be the first, which triggers some correctness and makes France beat people together. Therefore, a diplomatic action that has been very calculating and triggers public opinion between Germany and France is released.

(French-Prussian War)

1870, King Napoleon III of France sent an envoy to meet King Prussia William III .

asked William I to promise : Prussian Prince Leopold to give up the Spanish throne.

It was Spain's story again, reminding me of the famous Spanish war on the succession of the throne. The only difference between

is that the Conservative Kingdom at that time was the Habsburg family, and the Engagement Kingdom was the King of France Louis XIV .

When he saw this request, William I verbally agreed to the French's request in order to avoid the war, but rejected the rude request of the French to make a written promise in black and white.

After doing all this, William I sent a telegram to Bismarck, passed the message, and then gave him the right to publish the content to the public. Why do

do this? Because William I knew that his wise prime minister would make good use of this document.

As expected, after Bismarck got the electric board, he carried out a round of castration, using the method of hiding keywords, making the entire telegram look particularly arrogant, just like he rejected Napoleon III's request.

After doing all this, he informed the French media of the telegram content through channels. After the incident of

was exposed, it really ignited the anger of the French. After countless media reports, the French, who were originally worried about the strong rise of Prussia, started to make a fuss.

says that France has suffered humiliation, which is absolutely unacceptable.

But the truth is that William I pays special attention to diplomatic etiquette, and the telegram text has been carefully and modified, without any arrogance.

But public opinion has never been rational, especially the French who are good at making noise. When they shouted and taught a lesson to the barbaric Prussia, Napoleon III was also confused.

He knew the French army's background and knew that the French army was not prepared enough, but the surging public opinion forced him to react.

(Bismark)

So the French hurriedly declared war on Prussia on July 19, 1870.

This is Bismarck's calculation. With a few words, he used the French people's will to gain strategic and tactical advantages in defensive counterattack.

This is the famous "Ems Telegram Incident" in history. After the telegram incident, the Prussian army, who had been preparing for a long time, took only more than a month to surround the main force of the French army.

On September 2, 100,000 French troops were besieged by Napoleon III surrender.

On September 4, a revolution broke out in Paris, and the second French empire was destroyed.

Then Prussia occupied Paris and suppressed the revolution.

William I, who walked through Arc de Triomphe, was crowned emperor in Palace of Versailles, and established the Second German Empire.

As for France, after being humiliated, she was forced to ced Alsace and Lorraine and paid a large amount of compensation. The victory of the war in

laid the foundation for Germany that has changed Europe for more than 70 years and also allowed Europe to usher in a new hegemony.

(the crown of Versailles)

So when it comes to this matter, where is Bismarck Gaoming? It can also be explained thoroughly by syllogism.

Interests: Prussia defeated France is the core national interest. Only by defeating France can we clear the final obstacles to the rise of Prussia and the reunification of Germany.

security: At that time, the security pattern in Europe could not be the only one. Based on this, the highest calculation was that the two strong men competed for the two losses and both sides suffered losses. Whoever won was the rule breaker. This is also the reason why Bismarck is unwilling to declare war and encourages the French. So how to inspire!

is related to honor.

Honor: Bismarck cleverly incited the French people's sense of national pride, achieved the purpose of coercively controlling French foreign policy, forced the government to act with public opinion, and finally did absurd things.

In other words, Bismarck, who is well versed in history, has really gained benefits with his erratic diplomatic wisdom, broken consensus, and made his opponent make mistakes.

There are few that have been penetrated one after another, so there is some correctness and public opinion.

This situation is similar to the Tsarist Russia in the Crimean War, but the result is completely different.

The key role of this is the wishes of the people.How important is public opinion? Referring to the invincible French army in the Napoleonic War, refer to , after the defeat in the Battle of Jena, , all European countries began to reform the country of honor.

(Rise of a great power)

This is also in the same way as today's world situation.

is now rising, powerful, and later catching up with, developing countries, from Europe to Asia, without exception, are countries with a strong sense of honor.

But how good it is when many things are used is also unbearable when they are backfired.

This is the double-edged sword effect, which can also verify today's situation.

Because the defending country and the backward country are both countries with the most sensitive national sentiment.

The people who remained true to the people will become restless and become sensitive because of their fear of decline.

For example, France in the French-Prussian War.

The people of backward countries will become fanatical and sensitive because of their expectations for rise.

At this time, you must be alert to opponents like Bismarck, use reverse output methods to perform conspiracies and tricks, and finally make enthusiasm a bad thing.

learns from history and looks at today's situation reminds me of the words of a German netizen.

A German netizen in "Are we the idiotic country?" 》 wrote: We closed all nuclear power plants, closed coal-fired power plants, no longer invest in renewable energy, built natural gas power plants, built Nord Stream 2, then closed it, and stopped importing Russian natural gas....

What is all for? The answer is to follow the so-called correctness, to use this method to maintain collective security that you cannot maintain, to use it as a bargaining chip, and to let yourself be led by the nose.

Then, two pipelines were blown up a few days ago, and the chips were suddenly gone, and there was no way to restart them.

may have room for maneuver when there is a pipeline, but not to mention the room for maneuver now. The huge energy gap has also caused the most profitable industrial production in Germany to suffer a fatal blow.

The high-priced energy imported by Germany from the United States and other countries will soar electricity bills and greatly increase German industrial costs.

electricity bills account for about 10% of industrial costs. A double price increase equals a 20% increase in cost. What should I do if the price increase is three to five times? Can a company survive?

So what is this situation? The answer is that it touched Germany's core interests.

Behind this concern is the article by German netizens: "Are we the idiotic country? 》 gradually became a consensus among the Chinese people.

Then, it's something that tests wisdom.

for some reason, I admire the former Merkel at this time. At this point, do readers think more deeply? If there is any, don’t say more, do more...