There is not much time in 2022. Looking back on this year, many people have had a particularly difficult time, and some people lament that it would be good to be alive! The bankruptcy of enterprises, the decline in income, the loss of jobs, the repeated epidemics, the continuous sluggish housing prices, and the rising prices. It has to be said that 2022 is really difficult. As 2022 is about to pass, 2023 is ushering in. So what will happen in 2023? Are you still looking forward to it? To be honest, I hope it will get better, but we have to accept the facts, that is, 2023 may be more "hard" and the three reasons are very real. Please respond in advance.
The first reason is that unemployment may be more serious! The number of unemployed people in 2022 has exceeded many people's imagination, and 2023 may be worse. On the one hand, it is because of the repeated epidemics and the economy cannot improve. Moreover, we are in the late stage of industrialization and the early stages of anti-urbanization. The development of science and technology no longer leads more industries with dense populations to enter cities, but the development of high-tech, automation, and intelligence of post-industrial and information ages with dense technology. At the same time, the environmental problems caused by the industrialization of dense populations are led to ecological inward suppression, and the idleness of urban industrial entities has led to a large number of unemployed people.
Otherwise, the number of graduates in 2023 will hit a new high, 820,000 more than the 10.76 million in 2022. However, many graduates cannot find jobs this year, and it is even more difficult next year. Everyone must deal with it well.
The second reason is that the birth population has decreased, the marriage rate has decreased, and the demographic dividend industry will be seriously affected. According to the current population birth data, it is expected that the domestic population will experience negative growth in the next five to ten years, and the birth rate of newborns will decline in avalanche. In fact, the decline in the incidence of newborns is somewhat closely related to our young people's unwillingness to get married and not wanting to have children, because compared with 2021, the year-on-year decrease of 20% in 2022. At the same time, the total number of marriage registrations in the first half of this year has decreased by 10%. This is mainly because raising a child is too difficult and the cost is too high. In addition, the change in the concept of young people has caused a decrease in the birth rate of newborns.
The decline in population has a relatively large impact on many industries that were previously driven by demographic dividends, such as real estate companies, who can take over the property market in the future?
1 The third reason is that interest rate hikes in may not be stopped next year, because according to the plan of Federal , the current interest rate hikes in the United States only reached 4%, and they have not reached their target yet. They expect to raise interest rates to 6%. They have raised interest rates five times this year. I believe everyone has seen the result of interest rate hikes. The continuous decline in global stock markets, rising prices, and economic downturns, mainly because interest rate hikes will lead to capital outflows, and the RMB will depreciate accordingly. The money in everyone's hands is even less valuable. If this continues next year, the overall environment may be worse.
In short, everyone must respond well, and the author’s personal suggestions are necessary measures and still need to be taken. First, we must reduce the impact of epidemic prevention and control on the economy and allow the economy to recover quickly; second-hand housing should be normalized, and through incentive policies such as credit and tax incentives, so that second-hand housing can be circulated smoothly. Without selling the old, where can we get money to buy new ones to improve the quality of life? Real estate development can promote the development of industries such as employment, building materials, decoration, and home appliances. Anyway, the real economy should be vigorously developed, including real estate and other related industrial chain .
