Omickron variant has become so powerful that it surpasses measles and becomes the most contagious virus known to humans. It should be said that this variant is directly fatal to be lower than the wild type, alpha and delta variants, but because the Omickron variants are extremely diverse and complex, in the case of coexistence, Omickron becomes a long-term flesh-and-blood mill, repeatedly infecting people, and the consequences are very complicated.
We can see that the Omickron epidemic had a large wave of infection peaks and deaths at the beginning of 2022, and then it decreased, which seemed to be hovering at a low level. Of course, this has something to do with the fact that many countries have not specifically tested deaths. Therefore, it is more reliable to see excess death.
7-day average death toll
However, if you look at the scale of excess deaths, the scale of excess deaths during the Omickron epidemic reached a maximum value at the beginning of 2022, and then the growth rate remained stable.
In terms of excess mortality rate, the overall performance of Omickron strain during the epidemic period was not much lower. In the Omickron infection tsunami at the beginning of 2022, the excess mortality rates in the United States, France and Germany were all close to those at the beginning of 2021. In other words, in terms of excess mortality rate, the lethality of the Omickron strain in winter is not inferior to that of the wild type or alpha variants, and the death numbers brought by the Omickron are almost the same.
022 and 2021 at the beginning of 2021 are not much different than the excess mortality rate
What is more anxious is that this curve that has begun to rise again in Europe may very likely mean that there will be another bloody storm during the infection period this winter. This winter is definitely not a good time to let go of coexistence, and we need to observe how many numbers will be.
But it can be said clearly that Omickron is not gentle at all. The stable excess mortality rate shows that Omickron has no lower death scale than any previous strain.
At the same time, another hidden lethality of Omickron lies in repeated infections and sequelae. According to a report released by the UK's National Office for Statistics (ONS) on October 3, there are currently 2.3 million people in the UK, accounting for 3.5% of the total population, who report themselves to have symptoms of "long Covid", of which 72% report that it has "impact" on daily life, and 15% report that the sequelae have "severe restrictions" on daily life. Among them, 29% of people occurred during the wild-type strain in 2020, 11% occurred during the alpha epidemic, 19% was during the Delta period, and 36% were in the Omickron. According to data from the United States, among the 120 million new coronary infections aged 18-64, 34.87 million people have at least one symptom lasts for more than 3 months, and the incidence rate of sequelae (long-term new coronary ) is about 29%. Or in other words, , the cumulative incidence of sequelae in the U.S. , the cumulative incidence of sequelae in the entire population has exceeded 10%, although the epidemic period of Omickron is relatively close, it can also be considered that the risk of sequelae brought by the Omickron strain is no less than any previous strain.
At present, the Omickron variant has differentiated into several large families, each of which has extremely immune escape ability. The consequences of repeated infections may gradually emerge, so we can pay attention to the excess death data this winter. If the excess death data in Europe and the United States has increased significantly, and the COVID-19 mortality rate remains relatively unchanged, then we can guess that it is closely related to repeated infections. If this happens, it also means that repeated infections may indeed lead to a reduction in overall population immunity.
So, that's a big part of reality. Omickron is not "gentle" at all. The so-called "gentle" is just a milder ratio, but behind this is the infection problem that is more difficult to prevent. Many overseas Chinese were cautious in the past two years, defending the wild type and defending Delta, but they were hit for the first time when Omickron was popular. The reason why Omickron's "moderate" statement appears is that he does not understand this variant very well. It is a saying that he hastily concluded by looking at the mortality data alone. Naturally, there are foreign desire thinking after being bored with the epidemic, and perhaps the interests of related industries.
Yes, this is how humans are. They can consciously or unconsciously cover up a lot of things in the face of major disasters.
China has the only choice at the moment, but the appearance of Omickron gave many people the illusion that Omickron is gentle, but the actual effect remains to be seen. In short, reducing the number of infections as much as possible, reducing the occurrence of deaths, and reducing the impact on social order are still the goals that epidemic prevention needs to be pursued, and are also the result that dynamically clears . But if you say that Omickron is not dead, it will be better to relax the economy. This is a serious simplification of the interaction mechanism between the complex system of society and the external structure. A simplified understanding is by no means a responsible decision.
If Omickron's destructive power is underestimated, then naturally, if it is relaxed, it will also face a situation of medical runs and large-scale deaths. If Omickron is regarded as a "scientific judgment", a large number of problems can only be attributed to problems in government governance and completely ignoring the skillful woman can't cook without rice. Thinking with such simple and even a little childish presuppositions will only respond to the problems that occur childishly, and the mentality will not be rational and peaceful. In the end, we can only be a traditional solution of "looking for the government if you have something to do", but at that time the government lacks resources, it will definitely not be able to solve it.
Therefore, underestimating the destructive power of Omickron is actually very harmful. We should be more careful. Only by fully estimating the situation can we reduce possible losses, no matter when we choose to let go.
