After this war is over, it will definitely lead to a lot of thinking. The most practical feedback to China is how to deal with the Taiwan Strait issue. While we are watching the Russia-Ukraine war, we are also optimizing and upgrading our Taiwan policy.
Before the war started, Russia focused its main energy on how to deal with European and American sanctions after the war. It did not make too many assumptions about the course of the war because everyone generally believed that it was a fast and one-sided war.
At that time, Putin's 's calculation was this. After quickly conquering Ukraine, European countries would continue to maintain an appeasement attitude, and the symbolic sanctions would end hastily. Russia can survive this wave of sanctions by relying on its existing U.S. dollar reserves and energy constraints on Europe.
After the sanctions are over, Ukraine will be Russia's territory, and European and American countries will abandon Ukraine just like they gave up Crimea . If Russia can quickly capture Ukraine, the entire war process may follow Putin's ideas, at least it will not fall into the current passive situation.
It is a pity that there are traitors in the Russian army (let’s call them that for the time being). Before the war started, the United States had obtained intelligence in advance and concluded that "Russia will definitely attack Ukraine", and the time given for the war to start was almost the same as the time for the Russian army to take action. The person who knows such confidential information must be within the Russian army, and his level will not be low.
This series of actions can bring enough inspiration to China. We must take strict precautions in obtaining and protecting intelligence, and we must not make mistakes like Russia's. But how to protect and prevent it is a big problem, because there must be spies from the other side within us.
Not long ago, two weeks before my country officially announced the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control, the United States reminded the public to prepare medicines in advance. This is just a side confirmation. Judging from the intelligence performance of the United States in the Russia-Ukraine war, this time it is definitely eye-catching. It can accurately predict the next move of the Russian army almost every time. There are technical factors, and the greater role comes from the information provided by the other party.
Intelligence is the eyes in war. If you can know the opponent's next move in advance, it means taking the absolute initiative. Once the information is obtained by the other party, it means every step will be difficult. Whether and how the intelligence can be defended is what needs to be paid attention to.
If one day China will use force to resolve the Taiwan Strait issue, there is no need to worry about its performance on the battlefield. It will not turn blitzkrieg against into a tug-of-war like Russia did, and end up in a quagmire. What we should really worry about is European and American sanctions.
Once Europe and the United States impose all-round sanctions on China, the consequences will be very difficult. At that time, we will face all-round shortages in technology, food, energy, etc. All we can guarantee ourselves are food rations for food and clothing, and it will be difficult to guarantee other material supplies. Even if it can be guaranteed, the quality and quantity cannot be compared with the past. How
breaks out in the face of sanctions has become particularly important. Who can we count on then? It is difficult for Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries to stand on our side. India will definitely take the opportunity to ignite the situation. It is unknown whether our good brother Pakistan will waver. Even if it does not waver, it will be difficult to provide basic help.
At this time, some people will think of Russia. At that time, the powerful fighting nation will stand with us to jointly resist the European and American blockade. Because once China falls, Europe and the United States will focus on dealing with Russia. This is the "lips are dead and teeth are cold" theory shouted by Chinese netizens. We can always be sympathetic to Russia, but once China encounters difficulties, will Russia support us with the banner of "death and toothache"?
This possibility is not high. Judging from the character and past performance of polar bear , it is lucky that it does not take the opportunity to bite us. We cannot expect it to fight head-on for us and Europe and the United States.
So the key is whether it can withstand the comprehensive blockade in Europe and the United States, and how to find a breakthrough after enduring the blockade. This also determines whether Wanwan can be defended for a long time after taking it.
In addition, it is questionable whether the domestic people can unswervingly support this war.Most people's impression of war only remains at the level of "fighting, fighting", and they know little about the underlying logic. Many people think that even if they use force on the Taiwan Strait issue, it will not affect them.
Based on this mentality, the vast majority of Chinese people are in favor of using force to solve problems, because they do not know the various situations they will encounter later.
It is easy to go from frugality to luxury, but it is difficult to go from luxury to frugality. If China is still stuck in the poverty-stricken stage of the past, people will support it without hesitation. But the Chinese people have become affluent, and many people have never experienced the hard days of the past. Whether they are willing to live such a life and how long they can persist is debatable.
This is the inspiration brought by the Russia-Ukraine war to the Taiwan Strait issue, and it is also the price brought by the use of force.
Therefore, the Taiwan Strait issue is where the United States manipulates us, and it is also a bargaining chip for negotiating conditions with China on many international issues. It has almost always failed.
The Taiwan Strait issue will definitely be resolved. The specific method of resolution is a difficult problem left to think tanks. It is also the key to whether China can make further progress.