Cheng Mo: Ukraine elite gathers in Bachmut, the war is about to begin [Attached to my family’s anti-epidemic diary]
Original Cheng Mo Visionary Talking 2022-12-19 16:13
Morning mist / Repost
Content summary and important tips: This account introduces the latest situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as well as the profound impact of this war on the future international landscape. My stock trading diary moved to the "Sighted Vision" account above and posted it, click to follow. The direction of the Russian-Ukrainian war is not based on your and my will. I am just making an objective comment! At the end of the article, "My Family's Xi Yangyang - A Diary of Rehabilitation of the New Coronavirus Cold".
Yesterday's article was sentenced to violation and was deleted. This made me feel disheartened and lost my mood today, without any passion and interest in writing.
The reason why this article was deleted is guessable, that is, someone has made too many associations, similar to the sin of "Qingfeng cannot read, why do you flip books randomly". I never complain. It’s useless, and it’s not because someone complains. The platform has its own review rules and standards, and any complaint is self-inflicted. Whether it is deleting articles or banning accounts, letting go, forgetting, and being patient, this is my way of dealing with it, but I lack cultivation and my emotions are always turbulent.
[Chenwu Note] Mr. Cheng Mo was deleted on December 18, and can also be read on the Chenwu platform, but the background prompts " contains content that is not suitable for publishing ". Article link
(Ukrainian soldiers stationed in the front line of Bachmut)
Recently, we need to pay close attention to the gathering of heavy troops in the Ukrainian army towards Bachmut. It is very likely that the highest level of the Ukrainian army is planning a devastating blow to the Russian Wagner mercenaries who have been attacking Bachmut for more than three months.
public information shows that in the past two weeks, the 24th Aircraft Infantry, the 28th Aircraft Infantry, the 57th Aircraft Infantry, the 60th Aircraft Infantry, the 63rd Aircraft Infantry, the 65th Mechanized Brigade, the 18th Marine Brigade, the 35th Marine Brigade, the 46th Aircraft Infantry, the 77th Aircraft Infantry, the 71st Independent Hunting Brigade, the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade and the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade, as well as the affiliated artillery troops, have successively rushed to Bachmut and deployed to surrounding areas. The reinforcements are as high as 25,000-30,000. Most of them came from Khlsong Prefecture, Nikolayev Prefecture and Odessa Prefecture; some troops who received NATO training and returned to China, as well as members of international teams with more than 2,000 people, quickly deployed to the Bachmut front.
At the same time, the 93rd and 58th Aircraft Brigades, the two powerful troops who were originally guarding Bachmut, and some other troops, have been rotated to the rear for rest after a long period of battle; among them, the 93rd Aircraft Brigade is the most elite of the Ukrainian army. It is by no means that the two troops propaganda propaganda were defeated by the Russian army, but that they took turns to avoid excessive fatigue in combat. There are about 5-6,000 troops evacuated and rested from the front line. Previously, there were about 15,000 Ukraine troops in Bachmut and surrounding areas.
(Russian army invaded the eastern suburbs of Bachmut)
Reinforcement troops minus the number of troops evacuated and rested. At present, the Ukrainian army has concentrated about 35,000-40,000 troops and a large number of heavy equipment within 150 square kilometers of Bachmut and its surrounding area (30 kilometers wide and 5 kilometers deep). This is an extremely rare gathering of high-density forces and equipment.
In the past month, the Russian army has mainly Wagner mercenaries, Donbas separating the armed forces and Chechen troops as supplemented, and continues to launch human charges in the east and south of Bachmut. Although the Ukrainian army gave major damage to the Russian army, the Russian army, which was originally close to Bachmut, advanced to the eastern suburbs of Bachmut, and the Russian army attacking in the south also seized several villages defended by the Ukrainian army.
Although Bachmut is not a military location and has no special political significance, after a series of crushing defeats, the Russian army led to the two separate armed leaders of Chechen Kadyrov , who are very close to Putin himself, the boss behind the Wagner Group and the catering oligarch , Prigozin, the well-known Russian "God of War" Gilkin and Donbas , who are very close to , and the two leaders of the separated armed forces, publicly ridicule and criticize.In this case, on the one hand, President Putin urgently needs a victory to encourage the morale of the Russian military and civilians, while Wagner Group, Donbas and Chechen armed forces need victory on the battlefield to prove that they are indeed stronger than the Russian Wehrmacht. In addition, occupying the entire Donbass region is the most core war target of the Russian army. These factors combined together make Bachmut the main target of attack by the Russian army in the past three months.
(Ukrainian soldiers in the trenches of Bachmut)
Because the Ukrainian army built a tight defensive fortress around Bachmut, the Russian army suffered heavy losses some time ago to drive prison soldiers and mobilized soldiers to launch human charges, so many prison soldiers and mobilized soldiers refused to fight. Seen from a large number of videos, pictures and texts posted on international social media that Wagner's troops have frequently executed deserters and those who refuse to fight recently, especially those recruited from prisons .
The Ukrainian army gathered a huge number of elite troops and heavy equipment here, which is obviously not a bluff. In today's highly developed information technology, such a large-scale military mobilization is of course under the control of the Russian army's satellite and other reconnaissance methods.
In fact, this kind of offensive and defensive battle on the Ukrainian Plain competes with the number of personnel, morale, weapons and equipment and comprehensive strength of flexible combat, and there is no possibility of taking advantage of tricks.
Tactically speaking, the Russian army now mainly relies on existing highways and railway lines to arrange defensive positions. In order to avoid falling into the Russian crossfire network and heavy equipment is delayed by the large number of trenches set up by the Russian army, the Ukrainian army can only wait for the land to freeze, and then penetrate the weak defense flanks from the wilderness, and then break the Russian positions from behind. Therefore, no matter where the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack, it would have to wait until the land was frozen in mid-January at the earliest.
(Angry artillery marching hard in the mud on the front line)
Strategically, if the Ukrainian army launches a large counterattack here and advances eastward quickly, it is equivalent to what Chinese martial arts call black tiger heart and penetrates straight into the heart of the enemy . It should be that the Ukrainian side has made a full assessment that the Russian army is already at the end of its strength. Regardless of whether the Russian army can completely wipe out the most powerful Wagner mercenaries, as long as the large area of land in Donetsk is recovered, it will be enough to cause great panic within Russia and completely shatter the Russian army's attempt to permanently annex the Donbass region. If you hit Mariupol from here, you can also cut off the Russian army occupying eastern Ukraine in half, and make a big dumpling for Zaporoze - Dnieper left bank (east bank) Khlsong area- Crimean Peninsula .
Of course, since the front line of counterattack from Bachmut and then advances toward Mariupol to the south is long, and the Russian supply line is backed by the Russian hinterland, the Ukrainian army needs to have the strength to crush the Russian army in order to directly hit the enemy's heart and bloom in the middle. I believe that without the certainty of winning, the Ukrainian army should not take this risk. After all, this is a large plain and there are no high mountains and ridges to hide. Of course, if the Ukrainian army obtained dozens of F-16 fighter and A-10 attack aircraft and sufficient ammunition, it could launch a large-scale counterattack at any location.
With my observation as an outsider and an outsider, I still insist on my previous judgment. The Ukrainian army is most likely to launch a counterattack in the direction of Zaporoze Prefecture Melitopol , and at the same time, it will attack the two Russian fortresses of Luhansk Prefecture Swatov and and Krimina ; considering the maximum victory at the minimum cost, the Ukrainian army should continue to defend on the Donetsk front line based on a solid defensive position and wait for an opportunity to launch an defensive counterattack. At present, we should aim to consume a large amount of Russian army's vitality rather than recovering territory.
(Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army Zaluzhny)
Where is the main offensive aspect of the winter counterattack? Is the Ukrainian army adding a large number of troops to the area around Bahmut as a cover-up, or is it a way to assess the strength of the Russian army and then go straight to the heart of the enemy? I believe that Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Zaluzhny and his generals, who are known as military geniuses, will study carefully, make decisions and act, and continue to create surprises that will make people sit up and take notice.
I saw an announcement from Russia claiming that major news was about to be released. I don’t think Russia will take the initiative to completely withdraw its troops from Ukrainian territory. This is very naive speculation. Since the initiative in the war no longer lies with the Russian side, I will no longer comment on any dazzling and meaningless words and deeds on the Russian side that do not directly affect the direction of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
The following is a statistical chart of Russian war damage unilaterally announced by the Uzbek side. It has not been verified by a third party, but based on my judgment based on various information, the credibility is high. This is the most important observation window to observe the intensity of the battle; for confidentiality reasons, the Uzbek side may artificially adjust the Japanese civil war losses and adjust the data within a week.
Please note that if the missiles and drones launched by the Russian army are not shot down, they will not be counted in the battle damage statistics chart published by Ukraine. Similarly, the death toll from serious injuries in Russian military hospitals, fighter planes that crashed on their own, and Russian losses that the Uzbek side neither admits nor denies, such as the attack on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters military port, are not included in this battle damage chart.
The latest battle statistics show that Russian military equipment and personnel have suffered huge losses in the past 24 hours: a total of 520 Russian soldiers died; 1 tank, 6 armored vehicles, and 1 set were destroyed Air defense missile systems, 13 oil tank trucks and logistics heavy trucks, 1 set of special equipment, 75 artillery pieces, and 8 drones.
(Russian military battle losses according to Ukrainian statistics on December 19)
Since the outbreak of the war on February 24, according to Ukrainian statistics, the Russian military (including pro-Russian armed forces) died The number of casualties exceeded 98,000, including 2 lieutenant generals and 10 major generals ( Major General Zokov, commander of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian 20th Group Army, was seriously injured on September 24 and was not included in the calculation), and more than 2,900 officers from lieutenants to colonels; based on the current daily death toll of the Russian army, it will definitely exceed 100,000 before New Year's Day (the two sides may tacitly agree to a brief ceasefire on the front line during Christmas).
I speculated based on public information that about 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed ( The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces revealed on August 22 that nearly 9,000 soldiers died, and a total of more than 7,000 officers and soldiers were missing, excluding known captured personnel, which is very close to my speculation at the time. ), and more than 10,000 Ukrainian civilians were killed (Jianzhong.com said that 110,000 civilians were killed in Mariupol, which is neither grounded nor possible). The loss of life caused by the war is really shocking!
Overall, the number of Russian soldiers killed in action far exceeds that of the Ukrainian army, about 3:1 so far. Reports from multiple international authoritative organizations are very close to the war damage statistics disclosed by Ukraine. There are four main reasons why the Russian army has so many casualties: 1. Medical support is far inferior to that of the Ukrainian army; 2. The quality of individual soldiers is poor and training is insufficient; 3. Soviet weapons are not as advanced as NATO weapons, especially the accuracy is too poor; 4. In terms of battlefield situational awareness capabilities, the Ukrainian army has clairvoyance (tactical security communication system) provided by the United States, while the Russian army is blind.
Due to the above reasons and the powerful destructiveness of modern weapons, the ratio of wounded to dead in the Russian army is estimated to be about 1:1, while the casualty ratio in the Ukrainian army is about 2:1, which is definitely not the 3:1 or 4:1 of during World War II.
Regarding the data on Ukrainian army casualties, I estimate that about 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and about twice the number were injured. This is actually very consistent with EU President Ms. von der Leyen’s revelation on November 30 of more than 100,000 Ukrainian army casualties. The basis for my speculation is mainly based on public reports from British and American intelligence agencies and research institutions, combined with comprehensive judgments based on reliable war situation information. It is by no means something I dreamed up out of thin air in my office in Shanghai.
I noticed that in response to Ms. von der Leyen’s speech, Podolyak, chief adviser to the President’s Office of Ukraine, said that Ukraine’s internal assessment of the number of casualties was between 12,500 and 13,000. I think this number is seriously low and inconsistent with the actual situation. I also noticed that President Zelenskiy has repeatedly emphasized that it is not convenient to disclose the casualty data of the Ukrainian army now, and that he will report truthfully after the war.
Let us continue to pray: May God grant peace and end wars; let the wicked get retribution and the kind be protected.
Another article:
My family is overjoyed - COVID-19 recovery diary (5)
Today is the fifth day that my little baby is "overjoyed", and the first day that his mother developed mild symptoms of infection.
Xiaobao is completely recovered and has no recurrence. Mom started to have a low fever around 10:00 today, with a body temperature of 37.3 degrees. She was tested for antigen , and it was still negative. The whole family did not take any measures, except to drink more water and increase the intake of protein and fruits appropriately.
As of the time of publishing this article (16:05), Xiaobao’s mother still has a low fever and has only taken physical cooling measures without taking any medicine; Xiaobao’s grandpa and grandma still have no symptoms of infection.
I repeat a paragraph I saw on the Internet yesterday, slightly modified and expanded it, and wrote a short story about "All Beings Falling into the Water":
In the summer of 2122 AD, Yelang Kingdom A group of city people came to play in a wild wetland in the suburbs. When crossing a small wooden bridge that had been abandoned for a long time, the bridge broke and fell into the water. People were splashing, struggling, and calling for help in the water. A few rotten logs floated in the water, and those who fell into the water swarmed over and grabbed hold of a life-saving straw. Several people even got into an argument over a piece of rotten wood, and someone was pushed heavily into the water... Heavy breathing came one after another; fearful and shrill cries for help attracted many tourists from a distance to come closer.
A child stood up on the shore and shouted loudly: "The water is only waist deep, what are you doing!"
The dozens of pairs of hands holding the dead branches slowly let go, and people walked onto the shore one by one in embarrassment.
After everyone came ashore, there were still a few people standing in the water shouting. Some people cried out that they had fallen and couldn't move; some people screamed that there were poisonous snakes in the water; some people wailed desperately that they were stepping on bombs; and some people said that there were monsters in the water entangled with their feet... They all shouted at the top of their lungs: Come and save me.
The noise attracted several well-dressed water conservancy experts, rescue experts, emergency evacuation experts, and someone who claimed to be an internationally renowned swimming coach. After hearing the news, they came over to help and guide enthusiastically, telling people in the water to be extremely careful and to listen to their instructions to avoid danger.
Some experts say to find a branch and carefully explore the path like a blind person to prevent straying into deep water; some experts say that it is best to get on all fours and crawl slowly to prevent slipping; some experts say to wait for professional fire rescue personnel to send a boat to rescue, and not to act without authorization; some experts say to wait until the weather clears, wait until the water has completely evaporated, and the danger has been eliminated, and then it is possible to go ashore; some experts say Experts said that the water is full of viruses . Take a pill of "Lotus Blaze" to prevent virus infection first, and then think of a safe and secure way to go ashore; some experts said that I will teach you a few simple swimming operations now, and when you come ashore, you will go to my swimming pool to receive systematic training...
After hearing the experts' opinions, everyone became more and more panicked. At this time, I heard the child on the shore shout loudly: "I see you are all sick, and the illness is not serious!" Kong Wu, a man with big muscles and round waist, pointed at the group of experts and said: "You bullshit experts are obviously scum." After cursing, he walked away.
Then, everyone dispersed in embarrassment, leaving only a few people in the water still flopping around, crying, and wailing: Who will save us...
Soon, several Internet celebrities came and started a live video broadcast on the shore, and they did not leave in a hurry until it was almost dark.
A few days later, another group of people went to play in this wild area and found several corpses floating in the water. So everyone fled in panic. A child in shock said to his parents, "Let's call the police." The parents gave a stern lesson: "Don't meddle in other people's business. One more thing these days is worse than one less thing; remember, we didn't see anything."
The child nodded in understanding. He trusted his parents, remembered their teachings, and soon forgot about the incident.
Information source: 2022-12-19 WeChat official account Yuanyuan written talk
ID: yjbt-303
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