Some people say that the United States is most afraid of China's political system, because Chinese-style political system can concentrate the power of 1.4 billion Chinese people. No country can match this power of unity.
U.S. Congress
Some people say that the United States is most afraid of China's technological development, because China overtakes in many technological fields, and is close to the United States leading the world, such as in the field of new energy vehicles, in the field of large-scale engineering machinery manufacturing, in the field of aerospace, etc.
Some people also say that the United States is most afraid of China's economic scale, because China's economic scale firmly ranks second in the world, exceeding the proportion of the US economy in history by Japan, the Soviet Union and Germany.
Self-improvement, welcome to Tianze Miscellaneous Talk. Today we will talk about what the United States is most afraid of China? What strategic measures have been taken?
It is true that the United States is afraid of China's political system, the rapid development of China's technology, and the scale of China's economic scale. However, the author believes that the United States is most afraid of China's strategic determination. If it is not led by the United States, it will develop step by step. This is what the United States is most afraid of.
As we all know, after China fought the self-defense counterattack against Vietnam, there was basically no war. China implemented reform and opening up, focused its main energy on internal affairs, continuously developed the economy and science and technology, and continuously improved the political system with Chinese characteristics.
It is China's focus on development and wholeheartedly seeking development that has enabled China's economy and technology to embark on the fast lane of steady development.
The world-renowned Gulf War broke out in 1991, and the Kosovo War broke out in 1999. In 2000, the United States suffered terrorist attacks. The US military sent troops to Afghanistan . In 2003, the United States fought Iraq War again, overthrew the Saddam regime.
In many wars launched by the United States, China maintained its strategic determination and was not chaotic by the United States' rhythm. Amid the sound of artillery fire from the United States and the explosion of the cruise missile , China's economy soared wildly.
China's economy surpassed Italy in 2000, France in 2005, Britain in 2006, and Germany in 2007 to become the world's third economic power.
2010 was a particularly meaningful year for China, because in this year, China's economy achieved double superpowers. First, China surpassed Japan to become the second largest economy in the world, and second, China surpassed the United States to become the largest manufacturing country in the world. The United States, Japan and Germany, the former manufacturing powers, were left behind.
China's economic miracle has attracted worldwide attention. Economists from various countries have studied the development model of China's economy and proposed the theory of demographic dividend, institutional superiority, etc.
Later, American political elites realized that the secret to the development of China's economy was four words: keep a low profile, not be disturbed by the troubled world of the outside world, and concentrate on doing your own thing.
According to the speculation of the American elite, as long as China is not disturbed by the outside world, concentrates on doing its own thing, and focuses on developing the economy and technology, the Chinese economy will surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy in the next 10 years.
文Yifu, Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics of Peking University, pointed out when attending the 2020 Hong Kong Economic Summit Forum: If calculated based on purchasing power parity, China's economic scale had surpassed the United States in 2014, and if calculated based on market exchange rates, China's economy would surpass the United States in 2030. It is also predicted that by 2049, China's economic scale will reach twice that of the United States.
Lin Yifu also emphasized: This is basically an international consensus.
Lin Yifu said this not to be a sensation, but to have factual basis.
For example, the Japanese Center for Economic Research (JCER) recently made a prediction on the economic development of China and the United States, and concluded that in less than 10 years, China's economic scale will surpass the United States and become the world's number one. By 2035, China's economic scale will reach the sum of the United States and Japan.
and International Monetary Fund predicts that China's economy will surpass the United States in 2030. There are many predictions like
and so on.
However, these predictions are based on a basic premise. China's development rhythm has not been disrupted or even interrupted. China's development is step by step, and China has not been involved in the world's major conflicts.
As long as China is still the safest place in the world, all the technology, capital and talents in the world will continue to gather in China, and China's manufacturing industry will continue to develop, transforming from quantity, scale to quality and efficiency.
If China becomes the world's largest manufacturing power on the basis of the world's largest manufacturing power, China's comprehensive national strength will inevitably surpass the United States, and the American elites have already realized this.
Why is the United States a country powerful? One fundamental reason is the United States' error correction ability, that is, discovering errors and correcting them, and returning to the correct development track. As long as the development direction is right, the United States can continue to develop, move forward, and continue to maintain its position as a world superpower.
Biden
With the development of China's economy and the decline in the proportion of the US economy in the world economy, the United States has summarized many experiences and lessons, with two main points:
First, many wars led by the United States are not worth the loss. The Iraq War launched by the United States and the Afghan War cost more than 2 trillion US dollars, but the economic benefits obtained were not much, and the huge military expenditure overwhelmed the United States.
Why did the US military finally insist on withdrawing troops from Afghanistan? The fundamental reason is that the United States has no money. Official statistics from the United States that the US military in Afghanistan cost 300 million US dollars a day, and each US soldier spends 800,000 US dollars a year. With the recession of the US economy, the United States has to withdraw troops from Afghanistan.
Although Trump and Biden's governance philosophy are different, it is the consensus between the two to escape from Afghanistan.
Americans found that if the US military came to the scene in person, it would inevitably cost a lot. Instead of going to the scene in person, it would be better to start an agent war. Fighting an agent war can not only achieve the goal, but also not much.
So in this Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States adopted a strategy of raising fire but not ending in person.
Russia warned the United States not to provide long-range firepower with a range of more than 300 kilometers. The willful United States actually strictly provides military assistance in accordance with this requirement.
For example, the US Himas rocket launcher , if the Block1 missile is used, the range can reach 165 kilometers, if the Block1A missile is used, the range can reach 300 kilometers, and if the US has the latest ATACMS missile developed, the strike range can be increased to 500 kilometers.
However, the 16 sets of seamas multi-barrel rocket launchers provided by the United States to Ukraine have a range of only 70 kilometers. Ukraine requires a longer range of rocket , but the United States disagrees.
The United States is the largest among the military aid given to Ukraine by European and American countries, but so far, the United States has provided military aid to Ukraine only 16.9 billion US dollars. This kind of small money is like a drizzle for the United States, which is much less than the cost of directly participating in the war.
According to the strength of US military aid, the United States can support Ukraine to continue to fight against Russia and constantly use Ukraine to bleed Russia.
However, Ukraine wanted to join NATO , but the United States was the first to disagree because Ukraine joined NATO, so it was directly bound to the United States. The United States could not even think about it. This is not in line with the national interests of the United States and nor is it in line with the United States' national strategy.
The second is to create chaos in Eurasia , bringing manufacturing back to the United States and bringing the United States back to the position of the world's largest manufacturing power.
American political elites know that if the Eurasian continent remains peaceful and quiet overall, the global manufacturing industry will inevitably continue to move to China. This is a fact that history has proven. China's manufacturing industry developed under this situation.
When China became the world's largest manufacturing power in 2010, the US government became awake, and Obama even shouted the slogan: revitalize the US's manufacturing industry and return the United States to its largest manufacturing power.
However, manufacturing is the heavy asset industry. It not only requires a large amount of capital investment, but also requires a large number of blue-collar workers. It also has a long construction cycle and slow return on investment. In addition, the labor costs in the United States are high, so the manufacturing industry in the United States is still shrinking, and the global manufacturing industry is still constantly shifting to China.
After Trump came to power, he believed that to revive the US manufacturing industry, it is not enough to just shout slogans. China's manufacturing industry must be defeated, especially China's high-tech industry. The only way is to take advantage of the technological advantages that the United States already has to launch a trade war.
So the Trump administration is sanctioning ZTE , sanctioning Huawei , sanctioning Chinese universities, sanctioning chip embargo, and senating academic exchanges. It has used all possible means all over the world. However, the trend of hollowing out of the US manufacturing industry has not fundamentally changed, and China's manufacturing industry is still developing.
After the Biden administration came to power, it immediately changed its strategy to create chaos in Eurasia to bring manufacturing back to the United States.
If you evaluate the Biden administration objectively, the author believes that the Biden administration is indeed much better than the Obama administration and the Trump administration. Biden, Blinken , Sullivan and others are all strategists and are constantly correcting the mistakes that the United States has made.
After the United States provoked the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, what the Obama administration and the Trump administration did not do, but the Biden administration did, and Europe's manufacturing industry is shifting to the United States in large quantities.
Haimas
During this period, many Western media such as the United States' "Wall Street Journal " and Germany's "Business Daily" are reporting a phenomenon that Europe's manufacturing industry is accelerating its outward shift, and a considerable part of it has moved to the United States.
For example, German automobile giant Volkswagen wants to expand its business in the United States, Dutch chemical giant OCINV wants to expand an ammonia factory in Texas , and Luxembourg steel giant Ancelot Mittal Steel Group wants to build a new factory in Texas. There are many reports like
and so on.
Due to the rise in energy prices in Europe, manufacturing costs have risen sharply, causing most European chemical plants, steel plants and other companies to cut production and even close, causing great damage to the European industrial chain. Transferring manufacturing is their only choice.
European politicians can talk about pattern and spirit, but entrepreneurs must make money and must survive. There is a reason why European companies favor the United States, which can be summarized into three aspects:
The first aspect is the impact of US policy. The United States has formulated many policies to revitalize the manufacturing industry, such as the Chip Act signed by the Biden administration and the Inflation Reduction Act, etc., and has given certain policy benefits to enterprises investing in and building factories in the United States, and has provided large amounts of subsidies to industries such as clean energy, semiconductors, medicine and other high-end technology, which is quite attractive to many companies.
In fact, these practices of the United States clearly violate WTO rules, but they are very effective. German media said: The United States' increasingly tough trade protectionism directly led to Europe's disadvantage in manufacturing competition, and said that this is a trade war between the United States and Europe.
The second aspect is the energy advantages of the United States. Energy prices in Europe remain high, but the United States is different. The United States itself is a major energy supplier. Although the United States' energy prices rose a little after the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, energy prices quickly fell after the United States increased its production capacity.
Take natural gas as an example. At present, the price difference of natural gas in European and American markets has reached more than 10 times, which saves considerable costs for enterprises. Moreover, the American society is generally stable, so there is no need to worry about war or war. The domestic consumer market in the United States is also very large, so it is natural to invest in and build factories in the United States.
The third aspect is that the United States still grasps the key links of manufacturing. There are many links in the manufacturing industry, among which the R&D and design links are the most critical and the most profitable link. Although the US manufacturing industry has become hollow, the only thing that has been transferred out is the production and manufacturing links, while the R&D and design links are still retained.
If an enterprise wants to become bigger and stronger, it must have high-level design and R&D talents, and also needs design and R&D institutions to support it. The United States has considerable advantages in this regard.
So with the ongoing of the Russian-Ukrainian War, Europe's energy prices remain high, the investment environment continues to deteriorate, and the continuous loss of high-end talents, European manufacturing continues to shift to the United States. This is the fundamental reason why the United States continues to provide military assistance to Ukraine and keeps the Russian-Ukrainian War going on.
However, what the United States did not expect was that Europe's manufacturing industry was also constantly shifting to China, especially in high-end manufacturing.
According to According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce of China in September, from January to August 2022, China's actual use of foreign capital increased by 20% year-on-year, while the proportion of actual use of foreign capital in high-tech industries increased by 33.6% year-on-year, more than twice the growth rate of China's overall foreign capital absorption during the same period, and most of these foreign capital comes from Europe.
The four European countries with the most investments in China in the past four years are Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Their average investment accounts for 87% of the total, of which Germany accounts for as high as 46%. The Russian-Ukraine war made this trend even more obvious.
For example, the German chemical giant BASF Group has been delaying negotiations with Zhanjiang, China for five years, but decided to speed up cooperation in July this year.
China and the United States competed
. A number of companies in Europe, including Total, Inex and Danobad, have reached cooperation with many domestic cities to accelerate industrial transfer to China.
The United States sees this trend and is anxious about it, so it is eager to tie China and Russia to label China as a Russian accomplice, so that it can put pressure on European countries and enterprises to prevent European manufacturing from transferring to China.
However, China has adhered to the principle of independence and independence from the very beginning. On the one hand, it persuades Russia and Ukraine to resolve the problem through negotiations, and on the other hand, it carries out humanitarian rescue, but it will never provide military assistance to either party or sell any weapons and equipment.
The United States is looking for evidence of China's aid to Russia with a magnifying glass, but it just cannot be found. Even the United States itself admits that China has adopted an independent foreign policy, not favoring either side, and dealing with the problem according to the true nature of the matter.
Later, the United States attempted to use the Taiwan issue to mess up China, but the United States' conspiracy did not succeed.
China is still moving forward at its own pace and steps. The United States has been trying to interrupt the pace of China's development, but has not succeeded.
So if you understand what the United States is most afraid of China, you will understand how clever China's handling of the Russian-Ukrainian war is.
Americans say that the next 10 years will be decisive. What is certain is that the United States is still constantly trying to disrupt or even interrupt the pace of China's development.
As for ourselves, the simplest and most effective way to deal with the United States' containment strategy is to concentrate on ourselves and pursue development. As long as our economic growth has always surpassed the United States, our economic scale will inevitably exceed the United States, our technological strength will catch up with and surpass the United States, and our comprehensive national strength will also exceed the United States.
As long as we can achieve it smoothly, we have already determined the comprehensive development goal of the national economy by 2035, which means that the US's containment strategy will be completely bankrupt and many problems faced by China will disappear.
China's economy continues to grow
The United States will make trouble, let it go. We don't need to drug them or kick them a few times, the United States will fall down. As long as we maintain strategic determination and do not to toss, we will definitely win in the end.
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