text/Dingfengboli
Time has come October 12th. It has been a week since the last analysis of the overall situation in Russia and Ukraine. Before, I personally believe that the overall situation on the front line is still showing the situation of Ukraine advancing and Russia retreating, but the specific situation has changed a lot, which can be summarized as "you hit yours, I hit mine."
However, many major events have occurred this week, which have led to major changes in the situation. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is becoming increasingly tense and difficult to predict.
Overall, the situation on the front line has shown a trend of Russia attacking Ukraine and defending. Of course, given the reality of insufficient military strength of the Russian army, the Russian army should not be able to form a counterattack of sufficient scale. The biggest intention may be to seize more defensive areas, build more favorable defense fortifications, and at the same time restrain the large number of Ukrainian troops in the Donbass to create favorable conditions for the next big move.
1. Russia made a conclusion on the bombing of the Crimea Bridge
It can be said that Crimea Bridge was bombed, and Ukraine's official provocation was almost admitted that it was done by Ukraine. This signal is quite unwise and dangerous.
It woke up the Russians, not only did not make the Russians more divided, but instead made the Russians more united, focused and decisive. The latest news shows that Russia has identified the crime process, which was a terrorist attack organized and carried out by Ukraine and participated by citizens such as Russia.
According to Russian media reports, the Russian Federal Security Agency detained five Russians, three Ukrainian and Armenian citizens as part of an investigation into the Crimean Bridge bombing. They said the organizer of the terrorist attack was Kirill Budanov, the head of the main intelligence agency of Ukraine (GUR). The
incident resulted so quickly, which not only shows that Russia's excellent anti-terrorism capabilities, but also provides moral support for Russia's air strikes. Some analysts think it provides a good excuse.
In short, for the Russians, since Ukraine chooses to be the first day of the junior high school, don’t blame Russia for being the fifteenth. So, we clearly see that Russia's counterattack begins. First of all, the practical hardliner General Suro was appointed as the commander-in-chief of the special military operations to Jin. This is actually to send two signals that the Russian army will be stronger and the Russian Aerospace Army will also play its role. Secondly, we see that Russia's air and space continue to attack Ukrainian infrastructure.
2. The Russian Aerospace Forces are still continuing to bomb, indicating that the air strikes have strict strategic plans, but it also marks that the tacit understanding of Zhiyi is breaking and the risk of the situation getting out of control is increasing.
Surovikin
On October 8, the famous Russian general Surovikin was appointed, becoming the first time since the beginning of the "Special Military Operation".
It should be said that Surovigin is considered by Russia as a real military expert, rich practical experience, and a tough style.
According to Kortunov, Director-General of the Russian International Affairs Commission, air strikes on towns such as Kiev, Kiev, and are also regarded by the outside world as the "first fire" of Surovigin, the commander-in-chief of the newly appointed Russian army's "special military operation".
Kortunov also revealed that the decision to decide the candidate for commander-in-chief went through a long "bureaucratic political" process. "But technically speaking, it is obvious that a military expert is required to command the entire battle situation, and Surovikin is the best choice for the Russian army at present."
Surovikin is known for his good at commanding coordinated operations of multiple arms. In his Syrian military operations that began in 2015, he was known for mobilizing air strikes and ground military operations. Due to his outstanding record, he became one of the senior Russian generals who has been in Syria for the longest time. Since then, he served as the commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces and reorganized this new force composed of multiple armies such as the Air Force, Air Defense Force, Rocket Force, Space Force , etc. In June this year, he temporarily commanded the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield Russian-Ukrainian southern troops, playing a key role in the attack on Donbas.
Therefore, experts believe that letting Surovikin serve as commander-in-chief actually sends out two important signals: one is to give full play to the role of the Russian Aerospace Forces, and the other is to achieve in-depth coordination between different troops and prepare for future major battles.
The latest news shows that Russia has been bombing Ukrainian infrastructure for three days, but the operation is still continuing.
According to Russian Ministry of Defense , Russia will continue to crack down on targets in Ukraine on a large scale.
This also reminds people of the speculations of Russian journalists and some analysts: Before
, when all the procedures for entering Russia in four commons in Ukraine were completed, the Russian army withdrew from bonus man , which was a shame. Not only Kadyrov angrily scolded the general and called for the use of nuclear weapons if necessary, but Russian journalists also posted videos on social media: October 4 is a new day, everything will calm down, everything will die. On October 4, an ultimatum will be issued to Ukraine. If Ukrainian military operations still do not stop, all Ukrainian infrastructure, water supply, electricity, bridges and factories will be destroyed on October 5.
Looking back now, facing the constant fire of the United States and the West, the Russian army may have already had the idea of freezing Ukrainian energy facilities there. However, the impact of doing so is very bad, and it is more important to hope that the Russian army will drag the reinforcements to the battlefield.
But the bombing of the Crimea Bridge prompted the Russians to make up their minds.
It can be said that although Putin did not announce the escalation of the special military operation to the war against terrorism, it also pointed out that the Russian Air Force's operations are part of the special military operation. This is already showing that the Russian Aerospace Forces' attack on Ukrainian infrastructure is already a strategic plan.
Of course, large-scale bombing of Ukrainian infrastructure means escalation of war. But to this day, there are no large-scale air strikes, and the war will also escalate.
Facing the unfavorable situation on the front line, facing the aggressive offensive of Ukraine and NATO mercenaries, the Russian army is on the defensive side, and the problem of insufficient troops is at risk of being magnified, which also means that the Russian army untied the shackles on its body to deal with the all-round offensive between the United States and the West.
Russia's air strike against Ukraine, then Ukraine will definitely also strike the Russian border. In fact, that's exactly the case.
According to multiple sources, Ukraine also carried out counter-retaliation against Russia. On October 11, Russia's Belgorod Prefecture Gladkov posted a message on Telegram that the Ukrainian army attacked an substation near the Russian-Ukrainian border.
The attack was a response to Russia's bombing of Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian army's attack occurred at the Shebekino substation, 4.5 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border. The Ukrainian army concentrated its firepower and opened fire at the Shebekino substation. A raging fire broke out in the substation and the transformer was destroyed. More than 2,000 households have been powered off. No casualties have been reported.
Various signs indicate that Russia's attack on Ukraine's energy facilities is one of the strategic goals and has a strict military plan. Ukraine is also unwilling to choose to surrender, and the substations that attacked the Russian border were directly responding.
Where will the situation go? It may take at least one week to clearly perceive whether the war will escalate and whether it is possible for both sides to remain tacit understanding.
In any case, to borrow Kortunov's point of view, the escalating situation is not impossible to be relieved. The most urgent task is that the two sides must start a certain dialogue and contact while confronting. It is best to reach a specific agreement on some previous "battlefield tacit understanding": the discussion on reducing civilian casualties should be carried out without delay.
Note: A small part of the article's views refer to the article "Russia-Ukrainian conflict "cyclical escalation": Will nuclear options be considered? 》
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