Only a few days have passed since the assassination of the famous Iranian nuclear physicist Fahrizad. Foreign media broke the news that another senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard had been killed last weekend. Use remote control to clear at fixed point. However, Iranian officials have not confirmed this news. Z2z
analysts pointed out that if the new attack is confirmed, then Israel will once again become a “major suspect”, indicating that Tel Aviv is relying on accurate intelligence networks and frequent high-tech assassinations to impose a strong deterrent on Iran’s core figures and important targets. Its purpose is to stir up U.S.-Iranian relations at the sensitive moment when the U.S. government is handed over, and put a deadlock on the Iranian nuclear agreement.
Public opinion believes that in the context of the Iranian nuclear issue meeting in Vienna on the 16th of this month, how to avoid the Persian Gulf being dragged into the "dark whirlpool" has become a top priority.
was unstoppable,
Fahrizad died three days after the attack, Iranian officials held a funeral for him on November 30.
Shamhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, revealed more details of the attack when attending the funeral, stating that the enemy used electronic equipment to assassinate Fahrizad. The Iranian anti-government organization "People's Jihad" and the Israeli intelligence organization "Mossad" were involved in this matter.
According to the latest situation announced by the Iranian media, on the day of the incident, after Fahrizad’s vehicle was hit by a bullet, he mistakenly thought that the vehicle was malfunctioning and got out of the vehicle to check. At this moment, a remotely controlled machine gun started shooting from a car parked 150 meters away and hit Fahrizad and his bodyguard. Then the car exploded. The entire operation lasted 3 minutes and was all completed by remote control. The weapons collected at the crime scene were printed with "Israeli Military Industry Logo and Parameters". The description of
"remote control assassination" contradicts previous reports by Iranian media. According to previous reports, the explosive Nissan Picka first blocked Fahrizad’s convoy, and then a group of armed men raided and shot nuclear scientists in the street.
Just as the entire country of Iran was immersed in the grief of the death of a national treasure-level scientist, another piece of bad news followed. Iraqi military sources said on November 30 that Muslim Shahdan, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, was killed in an attack from late night on November 28th to early morning on November 29th. The assassination method was the same as that of the Fahrizad incident, in which they used remote and targeted eradication.
When the incident occurred, Shahdan was in a vehicle loaded with weapons and passed through the border area between Syria and Iraq. The drone launched a surprise attack on it, and Shahdan and the three entourage were killed on the spot. The news of
has not been confirmed by Iranian officials. However, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency said that people familiar with the matter denied the relevant reports and pointed out that the spread of such reports after the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists was aimed at influencing Iranian public opinion.
Fudan University Institute of International Studies researcher Sun Degang said that although Iranian officials have not confirmed the news, they have not denied the news, and the media disclosed the identity of the victims, so the possibility that the news is true is very high. Israel is suspected of acting as a behind-the-scenes man, because it launched multiple rounds of airstrikes in Syria and Iraq last week to eliminate Iran’s military forces in these countries and killed at least 8 military personnel not long ago. The new attack is likely to be part of an air strike.
hunting + deterrence
According to the "Times of Israel", international public opinion generally believes that a series of recent military operations against Iran were done by Israel. There is a view that Israel’s actions show that even if the US President "changes", Israel will continue its policy of striking Iranian targets in the Middle East.
The British "Daily Telegraph" pointed out that from drones to satellites, from missile defense systems to cyber warfare, Israel has been at the forefront of the world in applying new technologies to modern battlefields. Magnetic bombs, remote-controlled motorcycles, and armed drones that were equipped 10 years ago have all been used as assassination tools... This country is also good at remotely controlling pickups, ships, drones, and robots. Almost all equipment can be equipped with artillery or missiles and operate from a control center hundreds of miles away.
CNN also wrote that for Israel, remote-controlled vehicles firing at targets are not a new technology, and the Israeli defense company Rafael sells such long-range weapons systems to at least 25 countries. Around the Gaza Strip, Israel has also deployed remote-controlled turrets to serve "area blockade."
Sun Degang pointed outIf a series of incidents are confirmed to have been committed by Israel, then this is not the first time it has used high-tech means to hit targets in Iran. Compared with the past, today’s Israeli strike methods are more "mission-oriented" and more modern-the modern combat model of "ground-air integration" with the aid of air satellite navigation and ground receiving and remote control has reduced the cost of attacks and reduced its own personnel. The loss was reduced to nearly zero, and the target was cleared to avoid hurting the innocent.
"The United States and Israel have long been blacklisted for targets that want to be eliminated. However, Tel Aviv previously stood still due to timing and political factors, because killing scientists like Fahrizad violated international law. But it is Trump With only more than one month remaining in office, Israel may have chosen to quickly start the deployment in advance. It does not want to see the Biden administration improve US-Iran relations." Sun Degang said. Z2z
military expert Du Wenlong said that in several incidents, Israel may not be able to get rid of its ties. Compared with traditional assassination methods, “high-tech assassinations” such as remote-controlled shooting and drone attacks are more concealed, more efficient, and more deterrent: “First, you don’t know who did it, and second, you don’t know where the attack took place. Come out, thirdly, it can greatly expand the terror.” Z2z
Du Wenlong also mentioned Israel's precise intelligence network: Mossad implemented 24-hour monitoring of all blacklisted people, often for several years. When Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said “remember the name Fahrizad” in 2018 or even earlier, nuclear scientists may have been targeted. "Mossad's intelligence network covers all targets that Israel considers threatening to itself." Z2z
Du Wenlong pointed out that frequent high-tech assassinations can establish a powerful deterrent. “The signal released is: Iran’s nuclear scientists and the top leaders of the Revolutionary Guards are unsafe, and it is up to you to live until one day.” The temptation of
to counterattack
Du Wenlong pointed out that successive assassinations are nothing more than the sensitivity of the US government Constantly offending Iran, causing the deterioration of U.S.-Iran relations and putting a deadlock on the Iran nuclear agreement. It now appears that Iran has reacted with restraint to prevent falling into a trap, and many people in the United States have also issued documents condemning the assassination.
The newspaper "Capitol Hill" pointed out that many people, including Brennan, the former director of the CIA, and Fitzpatrick, a former US diplomat, condemned the assassination as "reckless" and believed that it would not make the United States and Israel safer, and hoped that Tehran would resist "counterattack." Temptation". Several well-known Democrats worry that a series of incidents will undermine Biden’s upcoming diplomatic efforts, calling for “diplomacy is the best way forward, not murder.”
Sun Degang pointed out that during the remaining 50 days of Trump’s term, US-Iran relations will usher in a very dangerous period. The key is how Iran counters, which can be considered from several aspects.
First of all, the possibility of large-scale military conflicts should be avoided. "Iran will concentrate its efforts against Israel, ease relations with Saudi Arabia, and exercise restraint against the United States. It will use proxies to push the frontiers around Israel, and its targets include Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and even Hamas in Palestine."
Second, it will become more determined in implementing the nuclear program. The Associated Press stated that the Iranian parliament recently proposed a resolution that includes raising the purity of enriched uranium to more than 20%, restoring the Arak nuclear reactor and building a new nuclear reactor. The bill will give European countries three months to relax sanctions on Iran’s key oil and gas sector and restore Iran’s links with the international banking system.
Finally, it may promote military modernization and help the development of ballistic missiles. Especially after the UN arms embargo on Iran ended in mid-October, Iran is expected to purchase weapons from Russia and other countries to enhance its national defense capabilities. This aspect is expected to increase.
Sun Degang believes that under the above-mentioned background, it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough at the Vienna Iran nuclear issue meeting scheduled for December 16. On the one hand, the tension is not conducive to the consensus of all parties. On the other hand, Iran’s Rouhani government is under tremendous pressure. "Tehran Times" reported on November 30 that in the conservative-dominated parliament, many lawmakers vowed to substantially increase the level and scale of uranium enrichment, stop Iran’s cooperation with the UN Nuclear Supervisory Organization and the International Atomic Energy Agency, and even called for withdrawal. Iran nuclear agreement.
The "New York Times" reported on November 30 that the assassinations may intensify the hostility between the United States and Iran and make it more difficult to improve diplomatic relations. If this event eventually leads Iran to change its plan and seek to develop nuclear weapons, it will be a tragedy that may trigger a nuclear arms race in the entire region andThe Middle East continues to be out of order.
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