Recently, the atmosphere in the Taiwan Strait has become increasingly tense. On December 25, 2022, the mainland dispatched 71 military aircraft to patrol the Taiwan Strait. This is the mainland's largest military aircraft inspection in 2022, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait is extremely critical. There are also strange voices on the island of Taiwan. Tsai Ing-wen announced at the end of December that the military service time on the island will be extended from four months to one year. It seems that she will fight to the end. At the same time, the notorious Taiwan "Democracy Foundation" released the results of a public opinion poll. The data showed that 63.8% of the respondents said that if a war was triggered because of Taiwan's declaration of "Taiwan independence," they would be willing to go to the battlefield. 71.9% of the respondents said they would be willing to go to the battlefield if the mainland carried out military reunification of Taiwan. This data looks murderous, but given that the backstage boss of Taiwan's "Democracy Foundation" is Wu Zhaoxie of the Democratic Progressive Party, this data seems a bit self-deceptive.
Tsai Ing-wen deceives herself
The issue of "war and peace" between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait has always been a very hot focus. Since former U.S. health department chief Azar and Deputy Secretary of State Krach visited Taiwan in 2020, and the mainland began to dispatch military aircraft to patrol the Taiwan Strait, the cloud of war has been hanging over the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. In October 2020, the media on the island of Taiwan produced a public opinion poll for this purpose. The question set was "If a war breaks out between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, would you or your family be willing to go to the battlefield?" The final results of showed that 96.3% of 18- and 19-year-old youths were "willing to go to war themselves or their families." This survey report also caused considerable controversy in Taiwan at the time. Such polls are not uncommon in Taiwan. A 2011 poll showed that "44.3% of Taiwanese youth respondents were unwilling to go to the battlefield if a war broke out in Taiwan, slightly higher than the 38.7% who were willing to go to the battlefield. " In just ten years, the change in Taiwanese young people's sentiments towards the mainland is real. Because of the instigation of the DPP, these people were brainwashed by the Taiwan independence atmosphere and gradually became hostile to the mainland. This need not be concealed.
Taiwanese young people are willing to go to the battlefield?
In 2021, the "Constitutional Foundation" on the island of Taiwan conducted another public opinion poll. The data showed that 65% of Taiwanese respondents were willing to go to the battlefield to defend Taiwan. In October of the same year, the "Taiwan Democracy Foundation" conducted a new round of public opinion polls. The question was "If China uses force to unify Taiwan, will it be willing to defend Taiwan?" In the results, 79.8% of the respondents said they were willing, of which 44.7% said they were very willing. One year after , the same problem was once again put in front of the Taiwanese people, but the data dropped. 63.8% of the respondents said that if a war broke out because the Taiwan authorities carried out the "Taiwan independence" conspiracy, they would go to the battlefield to fight against the mainland. If the mainland uses force to regain Taiwan, 71.9% of the respondents said they would participate in the war. Compared with the data in 2021, the proportion of people in these two items is actually on a downward trend. The data that more than 70% of the respondents want to fight against the mainland seems to be murderous, but in fact they are strong from outside and are just doing nothing to embolden themselves.
Nicolas Ng
There are various public opinion surveys in Taiwan, and the key information is the interviewees and the number of people interviewed. According to the island's practice, the sample collection scale for this kind of public opinion poll is basically only about a thousand people, and the number of samples is simply insufficient. Moreover, depending on the position of the poll collector, many poll data can only display position information among specific ethnic groups. For example, the agency responsible for investigating young people's willingness to participate in the war is the notorious "Taiwan Democracy Foundation". This is a social organization directly controlled by Taiwan's foreign affairs department. The person in charge is Wu Zhaoxie, a die-hard Taiwanese independence activist. From this point of view, these data themselves have big positional issues.
Taiwan’s former Japanese Governor-General
Since Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895, it has not formed a stable social atmosphere and social background for a long time. Chinese culture, Japanese culture, Western culture and Taiwanese local culture are intertwined, which is doomed to the diversity and fickleness of Taiwan's society. "Awe of power but not moral" is a true portrayal of Taiwanese people. To use a more popular expression, they are "hard-spoken but soft-hearted". They are addicted to the economic development brought about by Taiwan's semiconductor industry, and their arrogance towards the mainland has long existed. Therefore, they repeatedly speak evil words and clamor against the mainland, which in itself is a sign of their inner weakness. Some people think that young people in Taiwan are suffering from "war paranoia". Decades of being away from the smoke of gunfire have made them forget the cruelty of war. The reason why the "Taiwan independence atmosphere" is so rampant on the island of Taiwan is because many people are convinced that the mainland does not dare to use force against Taiwan, and their behavior becomes more and more arrogant. Once the mainland really blows the clarion call for reunification, they will either surrender directly or become cannon fodder in vain.
Taiwanese young people have war paranoia
In 2015, Duke University in the United States also conducted a poll on the island of Taiwan. shows that 38% of Taiwanese people support "Taiwan independence" because they believe that the mainland will not attack Taiwan, while only 32% of the die-hard "Taiwan independence" diehards. This shows that the number of Taiwan independence elements in Taiwan does not actually depend on Taiwan, but on the mainland. The more obvious the mainland's use of force is, the fewer Taiwanese independence activists will be. Mainland China is still following the path of "peaceful reunification", which leaves a lot of ambiguity for politicians in Taiwan. They kept telling the Taiwanese people that "the mainland will not use force", which led to a wrong perception among the people on the island. Even in 2021, according to data from the "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation", 64.3% of respondents still do not believe that "the mainland will send troops to attack Taiwan." It can be said that is this kind of "false peace" that gives Taiwan independence elements in Taiwan a space to survive and becomes a stumbling block on the road to cross-strait reunification.
Chen Shui-bian
There must not only be a red line of "de jure Taiwan independence" between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, but also a high-voltage line. When Chen Shui-bian was in charge of Taiwan, we introduced the "Anti-Secession Law", which turned the "de jure Taiwan independence" played by Chen Shui-bian into a red line. As long as Taiwan dares to cross it, it means war. Seventeen years have passed since , and the Taiwan Strait is also facing new challenges. For many years, the Tsai Ing-wen authorities have been jumping around the red line of "de jure Taiwan independence" to undermine the relationship and atmosphere across the Taiwan Strait, including colluding with external forces, creating "anti-China" sentiments on the island, etc., all of which are provocations to the mainland. Therefore, we should set up another "high-voltage line" above the "red line" in response to the various plots of the Tsai Ing-wen authorities, and truly tell the Taiwanese independence politicians the price they will pay in the future. The clear punishment measures of will make the law more majestic and deterrent, which can also completely eliminate the vague space and various lies on the island. At the same time, this will also allow the military and civilians on the island of Taiwan to clearly understand what kind of behavior will lead to war and no longer have any illusions.
Where will the two sides of the Taiwan Strait go from here?
For a long time, the "92 Consensus" has been the "single point" for both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Now we not only need the "Dinghai Shenzhen", but also the "Zhongtian Hanging Sword" that scares the enemy, in order to deter the arrogant and domineering Taiwanese independence elements. In this year's county and mayor elections in Taiwan, the Kuomintang launched the slogan "Vote for the Democratic Progressive Party, young people go to the battlefield", destroying the foundation of the Democratic Progressive Party in one fell swoop. The final interpretation of this sentence should actually belong to the mainland. The right to choose peace lies in the hands of the Taiwanese people, while the right to choose war lies in the hands of the mainland. The mainland is still willing to treat Taiwan with goodwill. It is up to the Taiwanese people to decide how to proceed in the future.
