After the United States passed the "National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023", Tsai Ing-wen personally announced on the 27th that Taiwan's compulsory military service period would be extended from four months to one year. In this regard, Gao Shaofan, associate professor at Tunghai University, believes that judging from various signs such as the United States announcing that it will provide Taiwan with US$20 billion in free military aid and plans to send officials to Taiwan for a long time, as well as the Tsai Ing-wen administration's cooperation with the United States in increasing the defense budget and extending the period of compulsory military service, it is tantamount to bringing Taiwan into a "quasi-war" state.
For Tsai Ing-wen, announcing the extension of military service will further reduce her support and increase the risk of public backlash. It can be said to be a risky move. However, she has no choice but to bite the bullet and do it. Because the United States is reaching out to Taiwan longer and longer, it requires active cooperation from the Tsai Ing-wen authorities. Since Tsai Ing-wen has chosen sides between the United States and the mainland, she can only bite the bullet and cooperate with the United States' "performance". Moreover, Tsai Ing-wen cannot withstand the pressure from the United States and must explain to her "master", otherwise she will become an outcast.
In the words of Tang Shaocheng, a doctor of political science at the University of Bonn in Germany (former president of the Association for the Promotion of Cross-Strait People's Literary and Economic Exchanges), Tsai Ing-wen was forced to go to jail by the United States, but this was also the result of her own fault, and no one else can blame her. Tang Shaocheng said that the focus of the U.S. strategy is to defeat the mainland and prevent it from challenging the United States' world hegemony. However, during the Trump era, the United States used trade wars, technology wars, chip wars, and financial wars to deal with the mainland with little effect, and it also paid a heavy price. Later, after Biden came to power, the United States realized that only by playing the "Taiwan card" could it effectively contain the mainland without paying a high price.
Speaking of the Biden administration playing the "Taiwan card," Tang Shaocheng believes that the reason why the United States provides military assistance and military loans to Taiwan is not that the Taiwan authorities can buy whatever they want, but that everything must be arranged by the United States. The United States hopes that when a war breaks out across the Taiwan Strait in the future, the Taiwan military can lead the People's Liberation Army into cities to engage in street fighting, which will increase casualties and leave the mainland scarred and severely weakened, thereby achieving the strategic goal of bringing down the mainland.
In the aspect of "using Taiwan to control China", the United States has played a precise, ruthless and cunning way, and is good at using two strategies. For example, the United States changed its military aid to Taiwan into military financing. This means that it not only requires Taiwan to cooperate with the United States in containing the mainland, but also takes the opportunity to make money from the Taiwanese people. In addition, the long-term deployment of the United States in Taiwan has pushed the Taiwan Strait into a war-torn and dangerous situation. However, the investment cost is not large, but it can reap great strategic benefits. Gao Shaofan pointed out that the United States is gradually depriving Taiwan of its dominance through a series of operations, turning the Taiwan authorities into a hollow, and everything must be under the command of the United States. The same methods of manipulating war in Eastern Europe are being used by the United States in the Taiwan Strait.
While putting pressure on the Taiwan authorities, the United States also put pressure on Japan, requiring the Kishida government to cooperate with the United States in containing mainland China. The Kishida government plans to increase the defense budget to 2% of GDP1, which means entering a "quasi-war" state. To this end, the Kishida government had to increase taxes, but this caused a backlash in Japanese public opinion, causing the Kishida government's poll support rate to fall below 30%. The Japanese government is like this, and the situation of the Democratic Progressive Party authorities is also very bad. Since the disastrous defeat in the "nine-in-one" election, the Democratic Progressive Party's support has plummeted, and Tsai Ing-wen, in particular, has become a target and criticized by thousands of people.
Although Tsai Ing-wen firmly believes that the United States will send troops to "help defend Taiwan" when necessary, judging from the poll results released by the Duke University team in December, only 19.3% of Taiwanese respondents believe that the United States will send troops to assist Taiwan. Taiwanese people's confidence in the United States is falling off a cliff. In fact, this result is not surprising, because the Taiwanese people see clearly what the United States is doing, and they do not want to become cannon fodder for the United States to contain China.
Regarding the series of dangerous actions by the United States in the Taiwan Strait, the mainland will not remain indifferent and will definitely counterattack forcefully. For example, just after Biden signed a bill involving military aid to Taiwan, the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army immediately held large-scale military exercises around the Taiwan Strait, frightening the Taiwanese military on the other side.He Yicheng, an important member of the Kuomintang who serves as the chairman of the Taiwan Youth Federation, said that the United States is not satisfied with visiting Taiwan and wants to directly send officials to "stay" in Taiwan. If it dares to do this, the mainland will dare to take action as soon as possible and start the battle for reunification in advance.
He Yicheng said that Taiwan under the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party is gradually becoming a "colony" of the United States. The DPP has kowtowed to the United States, making peaceful reunification increasingly difficult to achieve. In this case, the mainland should consider military reunification and take over Taiwan as soon as possible. He Yicheng also said that the United States has firmly controlled Taiwan. Even if the Democratic Progressive Party steps down and the Kuomintang comes to power, it will only treat the symptoms but not the root cause. Cross-strait relations will not return to the past. The only thing waiting for Taiwan is reunification. Moreover, the situation is urgent now and the mainland will not continue to drag it out.
If the day comes when the war for reunification really begins, it is hard to say whether the United States will keep its promise and send troops to aid Taiwan. Even if the United States really wants to fight for Taiwan, its warships are unlikely to enter the Taiwan Strait. He Yicheng pointed out that Russia will not help the mainland "attack Taiwan", but the United States is the common enemy of China and Russia, and China and Russia have a bitter relationship. If the US military wants to enter the Taiwan Strait and fight with the People's Liberation Army, Russia will not stand idly by. The Russian army may help the People's Liberation Army to stop the US military and keep the US military out of the Taiwan Strait. As for Japan and Australia, which may intervene in the conflict across the Taiwan Strait, they cannot save Tsai Ing-wen and her "Taiwan independence" comrades.
Now that Tsai Ing-wen is being forced into danger by the United States, and her support has been greatly reduced, instead of making a final desperate struggle, it is better to think about the rest of her life and pray that the special plane left for her to escape will not be disrupted at the critical moment.
