There are various signs that the United States is applying the "experience" of the Russia-Ukraine war to our country, Taiwan, in an attempt to replicate the Ukrainian war model in our country, Taiwan.
Recently, US President Biden signed the "National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023". The plan not only contains a lot of content to smear and attack China, but also plans to provide Taiwan with US$10 billion in "military assistance" and US$2 billion in "military payments" within five years, in an attempt to speed up the military against Taiwan. Half a month ago, Biden signed the seventh arms sales to Taiwan during his term, providing Taiwan with aircraft standard parts and related equipment worth .425 billion.
After losing the technology war and trade war with China, the United States put most of its weight to contain China on the Taiwan issue. In addition to adopting the "salami-slicing" tactic to gradually strengthen official ties with Taiwan, it also gave the green light to arms sales to Taiwan in an attempt to strengthen Taiwan's so-called "self-defense capabilities." Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has accelerated the intensity and speed of arms sales to Taiwan, constantly incited cross-strait confrontation, and fueled cross-strait confrontation. It wants to replicate Ukraine's experience on the Taiwan issue in order to consume China.
The Russia-Ukraine war gave the United States a taste of the sweetness and found a plan to deal with China
Under the instigation of the United States, NATO has been expanding eastward, constantly squeezing Russia's strategic living space. After Ukraine attempted to join NATO, Russia finally couldn't bear it and took special military action against Ukraine.
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Russia launched attacks on Ukraine from multiple directions. In addition to being overwhelming in eastern Ukraine, it even once approached the Ukrainian capital Kiev from the north. In this context, Western countries generally have a pessimistic attitude towards Ukraine, believing that Ukraine may not survive half a month. However, Russia's military operations soon ran out of stamina, and the offensive momentum slowed down rapidly. There was even a situation where the Ukrainian army counterattacked in the eastern region of Ukraine. Russia had to shrink its troops and put its main attack direction in the eastern region of Ukraine.
After seeing Russia’s decline, NATO’s attitude towards Ukraine quickly changed and began to actively send various advanced weapons systems to Ukraine, including a large number of Main battle tanks, armored vehicles, "Javelin" anti-tank missiles , "Stinger" portable air defense missiles, "Haimas" long-range rocket launchers, "Switchblade" and "Phoenix Phantom" drones and millions of artillery shells. These military weapons have greatly improved the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian army. After receiving military supplies aided by NATO, the Ukrainian army "lived up to expectations" and severely damaged the Russian army on multiple battlefields, destroying a large number of Russian tanks and armored vehicles as well as fixed-wing fighter aircraft and helicopters, and even sank the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship "Moscow" guided missile cruiser .
Now the Russia-Ukraine war has reached a stalemate. After the early consumption, Russia obviously no longer has the strength to organize a large-scale attack. It can only try its best to maintain the current results, and hopes that Ukraine can negotiate with Russia to end this conflict as soon as possible. However, in the current context, Ukraine has imposed peace negotiation conditions on Russia, which requires Russia not only to withdraw its troops from the eastern Ukraine region, but also to hand over Crimea to Ukraine. Russia will obviously not agree to these conditions of Ukraine, so the Russia-Ukraine conflict has no signs of ending yet.
However, the biggest beneficiary of this conflict is the United States, which is thousands of miles away from the battlefield. Why do you say this? First, the United States did not send a single soldier. With only tens of billions of dollars in military supplies, Ukraine successfully consumed Russia. This investment can be said to be quite cost-effective. Second, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European countries generally regarded Russia as an enemy and became more united in response to the Russian threat. This also allowed the United States to regain control of Europe through NATO.
From the perspective of the United States, as long as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, Russia will sooner or later be unable to hold on. When Russia falls, it will be free to concentrate on dealing with China. At present, the United States has tasted the sweetness of the Russia-Ukraine war, and has also summed up a lot of experience, which can be applied to the Taiwan issue.
Once there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States send troops?
A major strategic game currently facing China and the United States is whether the United States will send troops to intervene if mainland China unifies Taiwan. The author believes that the possibility of direct intervention by the United States is relatively small, but indirect intervention is certain to exist, and the main way of indirect intervention is to sell arms to Taiwan and hand Taiwan a sharp knife.
Since the 1990s, China has accelerated the pace of military modernization. The core content of military construction is anti-access/area denial capabilities. At present, the People's Liberation Army has built a very complete "trinity" anti-access/area denial combat system of sea, land and air, which can not only accurately kill large ships at sea 4,000 kilometers away, but also quickly destroy all US military bases within the second island chain. Once the United States chooses to intervene militarily in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, the military assets that the United States has painstakingly managed in the Western Pacific for decades will be destroyed. In this regard, the United States also has a clear understanding that it is not worthwhile to gamble with China on the fate of the country for a Taiwan that does not involve the life and death interests of the United States. Therefore, the possibility of direct military intervention by the United States is relatively low.
However, the experience of the Russia-Ukraine war has further strengthened the United States’ plan to let Taiwan confront the mainland to the end and reap the benefits. In the current peacetime, the United States is continuously providing Taiwan with a large number of advanced weapons and equipment, making it more difficult for China to unify and consuming China to the maximum extent.
From the perspective of the United States, once China chooses military reunification, it will definitely minimize the damage to the island's infrastructure and civilians, and it will definitely fall into a protracted war. If the Taiwan authorities obtain sufficient weapons, equipment and ammunition reserves in advance, they will be able to consume mainland China's strategic resources for a long time. Even if China finally completes its reunification, its vitality will be severely damaged, and the United States will be able to deal with China more easily.
Will China let the US conspiracy succeed?
Since the United States is trying to copy the Ukrainian model in Taiwan, will China let the United States succeed? The answer is obviously not.
The Taiwan issue has always been China's internal affairs, which is essentially different from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Once there is no hope of peaceful reunification, China will definitely take decisive measures to quickly achieve national reunification.
Overall, the reason why Russia lost on the battlefield in Ukraine was because it overestimated its overall national strength and fell into a trap designed by the United States. Compared with Russia, China has stronger economic strength and more powerful conventional military power, and has sufficient capabilities to solve its own internal affairs problems. In addition, realizing national reunification is the common long-cherished wish of all Chinese people, and it has a broad mass base. This is the cornerstone for China to achieve national reunification.
At present, the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army already has powerful joint fire assault and joint landing operations capabilities, which can deliver heavy-armed troops to the beachhead on the other side and deep into the hinterland in a short time, quickly defeating the resistance on the other side. After the main force is defeated, the "Strawberry Soldiers" on the island will not fight to the death for the Taiwan authorities at all. They will definitely reproduce the situation of large-scale surrender during the Liberation War, and China will eventually achieve rapid reunification.
Nowadays, the US government continues to send advanced weapons and equipment to Taiwan, which will only accelerate the pace of China's reunification, and the United States will soon lose its "key chess piece" to check and balance China.
