(Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Cheng/photo)
On December 5, 2022, the Chicago Global Affairs Commission released a poll last month, showing that 55% of the Republican people expressed support for providing military aid to Ukraine, while this proportion was 68% and 80% in July and March, respectively, with the overall support rate showing a downward trend.
This is another bad news that the Republican people have slandered the "military aid to Ukraine" since the midterm elections.
At the same time, according to a recent report by the US political news website Politico, a senior US Department of Defense official revealed internal documents that the US Department of Defense may face a reduction in funding and have to cut key projects including U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
Amid many controversies, the crisis of military aid to Ukraine being "cut off the current" is emerging.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has been the "top brother" in military aid to Ukraine. According to the US State Department's disclosure on November 23, the United States has invested about $19.7 billion in aid to Ukraine, reaching an "unprecedented level" since the Biden administration took office.
With the "strong support of the United States", a steady stream of American equipment was sent to Ukraine. However, Ukraine's request is not "responsible for all requests", and some weapons have even been exposed to have been "secretly modified". On the other hand, a growing number of “scandals” show that weapons and funds flowing to Ukraine have not been effectively supervised. More and more Republicans are questioning, demanding that bills be calculated for Ukraine.
Amidst many controversies, how far can the US military aid Ukraine go?
"From the current situation on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine, the United States' military aid to Ukraine has not reached the time for policy changes." Yang Yousun, professor at the School of Government Management of Shanghai School of Political Science and Law, told a reporter from the Southern Weekend that the victory of the Republican midterm elections may make the US military aid to Ukraine more cautious, which will affect the speed of military aid to Ukraine to a certain extent.
arsenal was "empty"?
On November 23, 2022, US Secretary of State Blinken issued a statement saying that the United States will provide Ukraine with additional military aid of $400 million. This is the 26th time since August this year, the United States has directly used the reserves of the Ministry of Defense to provide assistance to Ukraine through the president's special approval. So far, the total amount of US military aid to Ukraine has reached US$19.7 billion.
"The artillery , ammunition, air defense missiles and combat vehicles we provide will provide the best service to Ukraine on the battlefield." Blinken said in a statement.
The US State Department released a detailed list of security assistance on the same day. It shows that the United States promised to provide assistance to Ukraine includes: more than 1,600 sets of "Sthorn" air defense systems, more than 8,500 sets of "Jaberlin" anti-tank systems, more than 700 sets of "Switchblade" tactical unmanned aviation systems, about 1,800 sets of "Phoenix Ghost" tactical unmanned aviation systems, about 104 million small weapons and ammunition, etc....
These well-known American equipment cannot be underestimated.
, for example, the "Sthorn" air defense missile can shoot down low-altitude aircraft, helicopters and even drone , and is mainly used to strike low-altitude targets by individual soldiers and ground equipment under urban combat and field conditions. "Jaberlin" anti-tank missile can actively find targets and cause in-depth damage to the enemy's main battle tank armor. The "Switchblade" drone is a small suicide drone, also known as the "Switchblade individual cruise missile". Soldiers can use it to track and reconnaise targets at close range to improve the concealment and success rate of strikes.
"U.S. military aid is closely related to different stages of the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict." Sun Bingyan, deputy director of the Intellectual Property and Science and Technology Security Research Center of the School of International Relations, told a reporter from the Southern Weekend that at the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the US military aid to Ukraine was mainly weapons such as "stinger" air missiles, javelin anti-tank missiles, and , which mostly showed small scale and individual defense. Since July 2022, the United States' military aid to Ukraine has been significantly upgraded, and the "strong firepower and long range" howitzer , "Haimas" multi-barrel rocket launcher, battlefield drone and other offensive weapons have begun to appear.
"It can be seen from this that the US intelligence department's judgment on the battlefield process of Russia and Ukraine also changed, from supporting Ukrainian defense at the beginning to cooperating with the Ukrainian side's counterattack operation later." Sun Bingyan said.
Tongji University School of Politics and International Relations Deputy Dean Zhong Zhenming Professor told Southern Weekend reporters that after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, US President Biden repeatedly expressed that the United States would not directly participate in the war. The Biden administration seems unwilling to over-incite Russia because of its military aid to Ukraine, which in turn triggers a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. Overall, the current US weapons aid to Ukraine is mainly concentrated on weak offensive and defensive weapons. After all, the US is still worried that the war will hit Russia and may bring uncontrollable consequences.
At the same time, assistance through weak offensive or defensive weapons is also in the best interests of the United States. That is, it can be controlled at a strategic level, and can also achieve the goal of weakening or even dragging down Russia through continuous consumption.
The US military aid to Ukraine is generous, but due to huge consumption, the US arsenal has also been in a hurry.
CNN reported on November 17 that with the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the US weapon inventory continues to decrease, and some weapons provided to Ukraine are at risk of "exhaustion", and the first ones are the 155mm caliber shells and portable "Sthorn" air defense missiles. In addition, due to the insufficient production efficiency of the United States' current military equipment, multi-barrel rocket launcher ammunition also faces the risk of "insufficient inventory".
According to the US " Wall Street Journal " report on November 11, at the beginning of that month, the United States and South Korea reached a principled agreement on exporting 100,000 155mm shells to the United States. US officials familiar with the inside story revealed that the US will deliver the batch of South Korean-made shells to Ukraine.
combined with the background of the US arsenal ammunition emergency, this appropriate arms deal undoubtedly adds some suspicion of "replenishing inventory".
However, the South Korean Ministry of Defense clarified on the same day that it was indeed negotiating with the United States on ammunition exports, but the negotiation premise was "for US use only" and reiterated South Korea's commitment to not provide weapons of destruction to Ukraine.
" After the end of the Gulf War , the US military industry as a whole was transforming towards technological flow, that is, it attached importance to the technology and performance of weapons. Therefore, the US military often uses the absolute advantages of high-tech weapons to fight a short, frequent and fast war." Sun Bingyan analyzed, "The Russian-Ukrainian conflict actually taught them a lesson. When the two countries fell into a long-term conflict, the persistence of military production capacity began to be exposed."
Russia "constraints" and "disagreement to the local environment"
Since the deterioration of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although American equipment has been continuously sent to Ukraine with the "strong support" of the United States, it is not "responsible for all requests."
Ukrainian President Zelensky has made many statements, hoping that the West will provide "Patriot" air defense missiles. After Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kureba spoke with US Secretary of State Blinken on November 17, he also posted on social media that "it is time to provide the Patriot air defense system."
"Patriot" air defense missile is the third generation of medium- and long-range, medium and high-altitude ground-to-air missile system developed by the United States, used to fight and destroy incoming short-range ballistic missiles , advanced aircraft and cruise missile . Russian National Security Conference Vice Chairman Medvedev had warned that if NATO provides Ukraine with "Patriot" missile system and staff, they will immediately become legal targets of the Russian armed forces. The same "embarrassment" of
also appeared on another important military aid weapon, " Himas ".
According to the Wall Street Journal on December 5, the United States has provided Ukraine with 20 "Haimas" high-motorized multi-rocket launcher systems and supporting ammunition with a range of about 80 kilometers. The report quoted a U.S. official as saying that the U.S. Department of Defense has specially modified the launch device so that it cannot fire long-range ammunition. According to reports, if Himas is equipped with long-range ammunition, the Ukrainian army will be able to strike targets on Russian territory.
As of now, the US Pentagon and the Ukrainian military have not yet responded to the "modification door". The Russian Foreign Ministry has previously warned that the United States will cross the "red line" if it provides long-range ammunition to Ukraine.
"It is obvious that the United States has two 'goals' in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. We must firmly support Ukraine, but also avoid direct military conflict with Russia, or further escalate the conflict." Sun Bingyan told reporters from the Southern Weekend that there are differences between the United States and Ukraine on the issue of military aid. Ukraine hopes that "the more military aid, the better", but the United States wants to avoid conflicts exceeding expectations.
Sun Bingyan believes that objectively speaking, the United States’ military aid to Ukraine has obvious effect on enhancing Ukraine’s combat power. For example, the large investment in javelin anti-tank missile caused heavy losses in Russia's armored forces in the early stages of the conflict. The Stinger-to-air missile also poses a threat to Russian air power. However, in the later stage, due to the changes in the cost of aid and the types of weapons, it brought certain restrictions to Ukraine's counterattack.
In addition to the "constraints" of the Russian side, American weapons also face the problem of "not adapting to the local environment".
According to the US CBS disclosure in June 2022, some of the "javelin" anti-tank missiles shipped by the US to Ukraine are useless. Moreover, there are not enough batteries to power these "javelin" anti-tank missiles. In addition, " Russia Today " also reported that a captured Ukrainian officer complained that the "javelin" anti-tank missile was "useless" because the urban environment limited the use of this weapon.
Sun Bingyan analyzed that Ukraine has a deep historical relationship with Russia, and its defense weapons and technical styles are also biased towards the Russian system. In recent years, Ukraine has turned to the West, and it still needs to go through a transition period in the process of weapon replacement. "So, while the US Western countries provide military weapons assistance, they will also provide guidance personnel to help Ukrainian soldiers use these weapons."
"Gold-swallowing Beast" abacus
Although the "absolute value" of the US military support to Ukraine is considerable, it accounts for its GDP.
According to statistics from the Keel World Economics Institute in October 2022, the amount of military, economic, and humanitarian aid that the United States promised is only 0.25% of its GDP. In comparison, Ukraine's neighboring countries have greater military aid. For example, Polish ($1.8 billion in military aid accounts for 0.3% of its GDP), and Latvia ($300 million in military aid accounts for 0.9% of its GDP).
In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, many European countries have increased their national defense spending and purchased weapons and equipment, and the United States has also obtained a lot of arms orders from it.
The US Defense News reported on November 19 that the US State Department approved the sale of $700 million in foreign military products to Switzerland . At the same time, the State Council also approved the foreign arms sales of Lithuanian and Belgium respectively, with the amounts of US$495 million and US$380 million.
In addition to the new arms business accident, the US Department of Defense has an "excusation" to further increase military spending in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
In March 2022, Rich Lowry, a representative of the US conservatives and editor-in-chief of the National Review, wrote an article saying, "We need a $1 trillion defense budget." The article said that the United States has learned an obvious lesson from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has a huge gap in power. That is - "more and better weapons are needed to deal with the threatened security environment."
The United States is the world's number one military power. Since the Trump administration period, defense spending has been rising year by year. However, this did not satisfy the appetite of this "gold-swalking beast". On July 28, 2022, the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee proposed that the total defense spending in 2023 was US$850 billion, setting a new record high. Where did the huge military expenditure that has been rising year by year go? Is it really used to ensure the security of the country or allies? In fact, the US Department of Defense has had serious waste and corruption scandals in recent years.
" New York Times " reported in June 2017 that in Afghanistan , where the forest coverage rate does not exceed 2% of the land area, the US Department of Defense once spent $28 million to purchase forest camouflage for its army. According to the British Independent, between 2012 and 2014, the US military spent $6 million to transport nine live sheep from Italy to Afghanistan on the grounds of promoting the local cashmere industry. Investigators said that due to lack of supervision, no one knows how many jobs these sheep have created, how much wool they produced, or "the sheep may end up on the dining table."
spent $6 million to transport nine live sheep? That's right.
In view of the large number of "black history" in the US Department of Defense in the past, the strong US military aid to Ukraine has also aroused public doubts. Americans and some politicians have asked to calculate bills for Ukraine.
htmlOn November 15, US Department of Defense Chief Financial Officer Mike McCode said that the fifth comprehensive audit of Pentagon failed. The Capitol Hill newspaper quoted McCord as saying that after 1,600 auditors audited the Pentagon assets, they found that the department could not explain "about 61% of its assets."In a press release issued by the US Department of Defense on November 16, its wording followed the routine of avoiding the main points and focused on praising the Pentagon's "progress" in audits. It underestimated the result of the 2022 comprehensive audit failure and did not explain the specific reasons.
Sun Bingyan pointed out that the US Department of Defense only started the first audit of in 2017, and has not had a habit of checking and sorting out all its asset data for a long time, which has led to difficulties in checking accounts. At the same time, corruption in the US Department of Defense industry is a systematic corruption issue, involving a large number of people. This deep-seated exchange of interests hinders investigation.
According to the " Washington Post " report on November 27, due to the limited budget of weapons inspectors sent by the US to Ukraine, it is impossible to implement the inspection work for each batch of weapons transportation. From February 24 to November 1, 2022, U.S. inspectors conducted only two on-site inspections. Only 10% of the 22,000 weapons provided to Ukraine are effectively supervised.
Director Jason Crow, a Democratic Congressman of , also said in an interview: "Taxpayers should know the direction of funds. In any war, mistakes and improper distribution of materials may occur."
The old account has not been cleared, and the new account has come again. As the US demands for review of aid to Ukraine become increasingly loud, the Pentagon may find a "fig leaf" again.
controversy hidden "party struggle"
From February 2022 to the present, while the Biden administration is actively aiding Ukraine, opposition voices have continued to appear in the United States.
Trump Jr., the son of former US president and Republican Trump, once posted a spoof picture on social media, satirizing the Biden administration's use of US tax revenue to raise funds for aid to Ukraine, and the Democrats wasted US taxpayers' money.
htmlOn November 17, U.S. Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green publicly criticized the Biden administration's sky-high aid policy of Ukraine. In a speech, she said: "Is Ukraine the 51st state of the United States now? What position Zelensky holds in the US government? It's simply outrageous, and the American people need an answer."In the US midterm elections that ended in November, the Republican Party narrowly took control of the House of Representatives with a slight advantage, and Republican leader Kevin McCarthy is expected to replace Pelosi as the U.S. House Speaker. As early as before the election, McCarthy warned that if he was successfully elected as the Speaker of the House, his party would not sign a "blank check" for Ukraine. "Ukraine is an important issue, but not the only issue that the government needs to pay attention to." McCarthy accused the Biden administration of neglecting other priorities such as immigration.
Will negative remarks from American Republicans affect the U.S. military aid policy to Ukraine?
"The midterm elections will not have a significant impact on the US military aid to Ukraine." Yang Yousun, professor at the School of Government Management of Shanghai School of Political Science and Law, told a reporter from the Southern Weekend that since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, military aid to Ukraine has received unanimous support from both parties. Aid to Ukraine has become an important issue at the level of the United States' national security strategy.Although some Republican lawmakers have objections, there is no serious division, and the objections are mainly focused on excessive financial burdens and do not challenge the political correctness of military aid.
"Domestic inflation and fiscal tensions will not fundamentally lead to the end of aid to Ukraine." Professor Zhong Zhenming pointed out that since 2014, the two parties in the United States have long formed a consensus on national defense strategy, that is, it is necessary to curb and weaken Russia. At present, the Biden administration has also demonstrated its determination to continue to aid Ukraine. Although Republicans have expressed some disagreements and may propose structural adjustments and accounting aid lists after the midterm elections, there will be no fundamental differences between the two sides.
Behind McCarthy's high-profile opposition to military aid to Ukraine, there are many political "secret struggles" between the two parties.
"For McCarthy, who is interested in competing for House Speaker next year, taking the position requires the majority of the House to agree, which also forced him to give up some of his excessive claims to win the support of more members of the House - including Democratic members." Yang Yousun said.
"The future aid will definitely continue. For the United States, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may be more in line with their national interests if it continues in such a low-intensity manner." Sun Bingyan explained to Southern Weekend reporters that not writing a "blank check" is not to cancel military aid to Ukraine, but to clarify the direction of spending of the US Ministry of Defense. McCarthy's demand for strengthening supervision of aid in Ukraine is speaking on behalf of the Republican fiscal conservatives.
Southern Weekend Reporter Mao Shujie Southern Weekend Intern Li Weiyao Ding Yulin
