In the second half of this year, just as most international media are still focusing on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, North Korea's reporting on the situation fermented wildly in an unexpected situation. First, the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier battle group conducted a large-scale joint military exercise with the South Korean Navy , followed by North Korea's large-scale military mobilization for more than half a month, and various new missiles, were launched one after another. During the
APEC meeting, North Korea directly tested a "Mars Cannon-17" intercontinental ballistic missile, issuing the most direct military warning to the United States. Just one day later, the US military sent B-1B strategic bomber into Northeast Asia to conduct an air joint exercise with the Japanese Air Force and the South Korean Air Force.
The situation on the peninsula is on the verge of breaking the deadlock, and the one that is most worried is South Korea. The reason is very simple. According to the temper of the North Koreans, once a military conflict breaks out, it is likely that nuclear weapon will be used directly. Considering that it is quite difficult to directly attack the US mainland from a long range, the easiest way is naturally to attack South Korea.
Faced with the imminent threat of nuclear weapons, the government cannot speak directly with the North Korean authorities and can only hope to seek help from China. In an interview with Western media, Yoon Seo-yeol solemnly stated that he demanded that China play the important responsibility of the permanent member of the United Nations in the situation on the peninsula, use its irreplaceable influence to prevent North Korea from conducting the seventh nuclear test and giving up the development of nuclear weapons, otherwise it would lead to "military assets pouring into the peninsula", and South Korea and its allies would be forced to take joint military actions.
The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has always been the basic position that China upholds, and has not changed in previous Six-Party Talks and consultations on peninsula affairs. Even if South Korea does not take the initiative to ask or shout, China will contribute its own efforts to promote the peaceful resolution of the peninsula nuclear issue.
However, what is unhappy is that Yoon Seok-yeol's statement is not like the South Korean side's desire to obtain diplomatic cooperation from China. On the contrary, it is threatening China and forcing China to agree to the conditions proposed by South Korea. If China is unwilling to support South Korea on the peninsula issue, then South Korea will take major security measures that are enough to imbalance the geopolitical situation.
South Korean media believe that the so-called "military assets" he mentioned mainly include two aspects: one is the US strategic weapons platform, and the other is the "THAAD" anti-missile system.
At the beginning of his career, Yoon Seo-yeol advocated the hope that Washington will send nuclear submarine and strategic bomber into the peninsula to provide South Korea with a nuclear protection umbrella. Although the US did not give a positive response as soon as possible, judging from the current situation, Pentagon seems to be quietly advancing the plan to garrison proposed by Yoon Seo-yeol. Recently, the Ohio-class strategic nuclear submarine Michigan, which can carry up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, has arrived in the waters near Okinawa. The B-1B strategic bombers, B-2 stealth bombers, etc. that the US military has taken turns to deploy in Guam are also very likely to fly to South Korea.
Considering the entry of nuclear submarines and strategic bombers does not entirely depend on South Korea. The United States cannot make a mistake in completely offending China to appease South Korea, so this is most likely South Korea's wishful thinking. However, the problem of " THAAD " is undoubtedly the big card that Yoon Seok-yeon wants to play the most.
At this stage, the United States has deployed two sets of "THAAD" systems in South Korea, which can be put into operation at any time. After Yoon Seo-hyun used this to threaten China, the possibility of the US military deploying "THAAD" on a large scale in South Korea in the future has increased dramatically. Park Geun-hye era, because South Korea took the lead in provoking the "THAAD" issue, the "honeymoon period" of China and South Korea was directly over, and the Korean brand and cultural and entertainment industry, which were popular in the Chinese market, suffered unprecedented heavy blows. During the period of Moon Jae-in, in order to ease tensions, the Blue House made a "three no" commitment, and China-South Korea relations gradually warmed up.
However, unlike Moon Jae-in, who pursues a pragmatic strategy toward China, Yoon Seo-young, who is a prosecutor and has no political experience, comes from the Korean right wing. He only knows how to obey the United States in daily life, and has no political wisdom that his predecessor can be at ease and compete with each other between the two major countries of China and the United States.
The most fundamental reason why the Korean authorities often seem at a loss and at a disadvantage in the peninsula issue is that they have serious deviations in their positioning. The peninsula issue has never been a game between North and South Korea, but a mutual competition between the United States, North Korea, and China and the United States, which is simply impossible for South Korea to intervene.
The People's Liberation Army has already made sufficient preparations for the South Korean side to take action in advance. First, the Northern Theater Command was equipped with the fifth-generation heavy stealth fighter of the domestically produced J-20 earlier, which can destroy the opponent's air defense network in the first wave of offensives during wartime, and cooperate with the J-16 and J-11 fighter jets to completely suppress the US and South Korean air force. In terms of long-range fire strikes, the Dongfeng-17 hypersonic missile is aimed at not only the Guam base on the second island chain of , , but also the THAAD system. At the beginning of the battle, we made a big move to break through the US-South Korea air defense network and destroy the THAAD. The subsequent all-round offensive was easy to capture.
Of course, these are extreme situations. Only by realizing long-term peace on the peninsula is the most in line with China's strategic interests. If Yoon Seo-yeol cannot correctly understand the deadlock in the Peninsula issue and develop pragmatic relations with China, then his five-year term will surely be full of twists and turns.
