According to Hong Kong's Ming Pao, the production plant area of 
000 square meters in the past two or three years has reached 120,000 square meters, and in theory, 10 pulsating production lines can be configured. One of the large constant temperature and humidity factory has an area of more than 50,000 square meters and can install 5 pulsating production lines. Cheng Fei also announced the establishment of five one-to-one installation teams last year. The report speculated that this is likely to be five pulsating production lines of the J-20. According to the speed at which each production line produces one J-20 per month, the annual output of five production lines will reach 60 aircraft. If all 10 production lines produce J-20, 120 aircraft can be produced annually.
However, considering that China is exporting J-10CE to Pakistan , there may be 1-2 out of the 10 production lines for the production of J-10CE, and the annual output of J-20 may be between 64-108 aircraft, which can meet the equipment needs of about 2-3 aviation brigades. According to German expert Andreas Ruprecht, it is estimated that according to the number of J-20 fighter jets exhibited at the Zhuhai Air Show, at least 208 J-20s have been in service. By the end of 2025, the total production of J-20 will exceed 500 aircraft.
reports that the J-20 currently has about 9 mixed aviation brigades, and will be equipped with 40 mixed aviation brigades by 2025. Currently, there are only 458 F35 fighter jets equipped by the US military, of which about 300 F35A and only a few dozen F35Cs. There are not many in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan and South Korea currently have 63 F35s equipped, which have an advantage in the number of J-20s in the Asia-Pacific region. The report believes that in the next few years, the annual production of F35 will be about 100 aircraft, and will be given priority to European countries due to the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the number of F35s distributed to the Asia-Pacific region will be reduced. This will lead to China's advantage in the quantity and quality of stealth fighters in the Asia-Pacific region in 2025, and suppression of the United States and its allies.
It should be said that Hong Kong media reports are not groundless to some extent. Previously, Chengfei Group announced that in order to ensure the completion of the fighter's delivery mission, five one-to-one installation teams were specially formed. Considering that Chengfei is currently mainly responsible for producing the J-10Ch and J-20 fighter jets, the J-10C technology is relatively mature and has been produced for many years, so it is not very likely to form a pick-up and assembly team. On the contrary, the J-20 is more suitable for this approach. Moreover, due to the needs of the situation, Chengfei Group has been working hard to improve the production speed of fighter jets in recent years. Therefore, the reports of Hong Kong media are not contagious. If the J-20 is produced as the rate reported by Hong Kong media, then the air force pattern in the Asia-Pacific region is likely to undergo huge changes in the future.
At present, the stealth fighter aircraft equipped by the US military are mainly F22 and F35. However, due to the small number of F22s, it is increasingly difficult to meet the needs of the US military in terms of use and deployment. Therefore, the US military relies more on F35 in the Asia-Pacific region and exports F35 to its allies, forming a stealth fighter network against China. The J-20 is a stealth fighter developed by China and is also the most advanced stealth fighter currently equipped by China.
In terms of performance, the J-20 can completely compete with the US military's F22 and F35, and even in part it is more advanced. The main characteristics of stealth fighter in performance are its 4S capabilities, namely stealth capability, super maneuverability, situational awareness capability and range of vision combat capability. In terms of stealth capability, the J-20 uses a full-move tilt vertical tail, uses a lot of composite materials, and is coated with radar wave absorbing material, and uses DSI air intake and other measures to reduce the radar reflection area.
In terms of materials and process, the J-20 also has the advantage of latecomer. Not only is the appearance very smooth, but the entire aircraft has no prominence that can destroy stealth performance. The overall manufacturing level is high, reflecting the J-20's emphasis on stealth capabilities. The J-20 adopts a duck-style aerodynamic design and is equipped with ventral fins. Although this design, although from the deflection of candle or from a certain angle on the side, the sudden increase of RCS will occur in some cases, the impact on the J-20's stealth ability is still within an acceptable range. It is estimated that the front RSC of the J-20 is about 0.05 square meters, slightly larger than F22.Under the guarantee of China's overall combat system, , the gap in stealth capabilities of the J-20 is not particularly huge.
In terms of super maneuverability, the J-20 adopts a duck-style layout design, which not only greatly improves the lift coefficient, but also significantly enhances the maneuverability, agility and small-radius turning capabilities of the fighter. This makes the J-20 still have extremely strong maneuverability even without being equipped with a vector thrust engine. During the exercises within the Air Force, when facing fighter jets such as J10, J11B, which are famous for their excellent mobility, the J20 can often suppress its maneuverability, which is enough to prove the excellent maneuverability of the J20.
In terms of situational awareness, thanks to the advancement in radar and avionics systems, the J-20 has obvious latecomer advantages. The J-20 is equipped with the most advanced domestic active phased array radar , which is on the same level as the APG-77 active phased array radar equipped by the US F22. In addition, the J-20 is also equipped with an EODAS integrated photoelectric distributed aperture system similar to the F35 fighter, which is better than the F22 in situational awareness and is not inferior to the F35. In terms of supersonic cruise capabilities, since the turbofan 15 engine developed for J20 is not mature, the J20 uses an improved version of the turbofan 10B engine, which can only perform short-term supersonic cruise. There is a certain gap with the F22, but the gap is not too big compared to the F35.
In fact, in terms of performance, the J-20 is not inferior to the F22 and F35, and both sides have their own advantages. As we all know, the high and low combinations of the US stealth fighter are slightly different in terms of technical performance and combat positioning. As a high-end fighter, F22 is mainly used for air combat and seize the battlefield air supremacy . While performing air combat missions, F35 is also responsible for multi-purpose operations. As a general model of the US Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps , F35 has special needs for intelligence detection sharing and various multi-purpose missions. Therefore, the F22 has a very prominent 4S capability in design and attaches great importance to stealth capability.
and F35 have some choices in 4S capabilities, highlighting situational awareness capabilities, and sacrifices in stealth ability, supermaneuverability and supersonic cruise capabilities to ensure that it has strong multi-purpose capabilities. Compared with the F22 and F35, the J-20, as a high-performance heavy stealth fighter, focuses more on situational awareness and supermaneuverability in design, although it is limited by the aerodynamic layout design and engine performance, resulting in insufficient stealth and supersonic cruise capabilities.
J-20's stealth ability is not inferior to the F35, and is only slightly inferior to the F22. The supersonic cruise capability is also sufficient in hot spots around China. It even has an EODAS system that the F22 does not have, which also has great advantages over the F35 in terms of flight performance and maneuverability. Therefore, in terms of comprehensive performance, the J-20 is not inferior to the F22 and F35 at all. In hot spots in the Asia-Pacific region, the J-20 can also be guaranteed by a complete combat system in China. In terms of combat effectiveness, the J-20 is not only not afraid of the F22 and F35 of the US military and its allies, but also has the ability to suppress it.
In terms of quantity, the countries in the Asia-Pacific region that are equipped with F35 fighter jets include Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and the US military stationed in the Asia-Pacific region, with a total of about 100 aircraft. The US military currently has a total of 450 F35s and more than 170 F22 fighter , which can be used to deploy about one-third of the number in the Asia-Pacific region. However, considering that the US military bases in the Asia-Pacific region are within the range of China's long-range firepower strikes, the number of F22 and F35 fighter jets that the US military can really deploy to the Asia-Pacific region during wartime is probably not that ideal. Therefore, in terms of total number, the number of about 208 brigades currently equipped by the J-20 has certain advantages compared to the stealth fighter deployed by the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region.
Considering the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the situation in the Middle East, the newly manufactured F35 will inevitably tilt towards Europe and the Middle East in the future. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic and the tension in the United States, the manufacturing speed of F35 is also declining. The annual output of F35s in 2020 is 150 aircraft, and the annual output in 2021 is 133-139 aircraft. As of November 2022, only about 89-95 aircraft have been produced.Therefore, in the short term, the growth rate of F35 in the Asia-Pacific region will slow down in recent years. Correspondingly, if the J-20 can really reach 500 aircraft in 2025 as reported, it will be unique in the Asia-Pacific region, with a certain advantage over the US military and its allies in terms of performance and quantity. By then, the air force balance in the Asia-Pacific region will undergo major changes, and China will gradually gain the upper hand.
