When I browsed the external website in the past two days, an article immediately attracted my attention.
The title of the article is "China can take more actions to help avoid nuclear conflicts" , published on the front page of the comments of the famous British media " Financial Times ", and the author is named "Zhou Bo".
Before seeing the specific content, this article has three unusual features that attracted my attention.
Special point 1: The author of the article is extraordinary.
The author Zhou Bo is a colonel of the People's Liberation Army of China. He served as the director of the Security Center of the International Military Cooperation Office of the Ministry of National Defense. After retirement, he is currently a researcher at the Center for Strategic and Security Research at Tsinghua University.
We all know that as the international situation becomes more turbulent in the past two years, the discipline of the People's Liberation Army's propaganda has also been much stricter.
For example, the familiar , Zhang Zhaozhong, , has not appeared in public for a long time. Therefore, Colonel Zhou Bo was able to publicly publish the article this time, at least passed the internal military review, and even went further, to convey a semi-official view.
Special point 2: The topic of the article is very hot and sensitive. talks about the current nuclear conflict problem facing the world, specifically referring to the risk of nuclear conflict on the battlefield of Ukraine.
This reflects that within the PLA, we do not think that the current probability of breaking out of nuclear war is completely zero .
We should have " bottom line thinking " and take the initiative to avoid the worst situation.
Third, the article is published in international media in English, indicating that this is conveying China's voice and attitude to the whole world.
So, this article comes from within the People's Liberation Army and is very worthy of analysis.
So let’s take a look at What attitude will China have when the nuclear war comes and how should it make a decision?
The ever-changing nuclear weapons
When it comes to nuclear weapons, most Chinese people may have two impressions.
The first impression is that at the end of World War II , the United States dropped two atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan.
In an instant, the two cities turned into scorched earth, nearly 100,000 people died, and nuclear pollution occurred for nearly 20 years thereafter.
The second impression is that during the 1960s and 1970s, the Soviet Union committed " nuclear blackmail " to us, we "dig deep holes and accumulate grain" and widely carried out the construction of air raid shelters and third-line .
So, in the impression of Chinese people, nuclear weapons have always been very "terrifying" existence.
But more than half a century has passed in a flash, and the development of military technology has also made nuclear weapons different from those of ordinary people.
At present, the nuclear weapons in the hands of major countries are mainly "tactical" nuclear weapons, mainly small-equivalent hydrogen bomb .
, a weapon like
, can achieve a minimum of only 1,000 tons of TNT explosion equivalent , which is only 1/15 of the "Little Boy" atomic bomb that the US military dropped on Hiroshima .
and this nuclear weapon can be fired with cannon and mortar . After being released, the pollution is small and the damage is accurate.
What is this concept?
For example, in the Battle of Resisting U.S. Aggression and Aiding Korea, Shangganling , which was less than 4 square kilometers of land, suffered bombardment of 20,000 tons of TNT equivalent artillery shells by the US military, which was equivalent to the release of 20 tactical nuclear weapons.
See this, do you think nuclear weapons may not be as terrible as you imagined.
At present, there are many types of small-equivalent nuclear weapons. If placed on the battlefield, some can do "only kill and not destroy infrastructure" , or "only kill and not destroy electronic communication facilities" .
If a nuclear shell like this is fired, the battlefield effect is not only equivalent to 1,000 cannons, but it does not destroy infrastructure and is conducive to the subsequent occupation forces taking over the battlefield. It has the effect of "four two to make a thousand pounds" .
So for nearly half a century, tactical nuclear weapon has been favored and vigorously developed by nuclear powers such as the United States and Russia.
However, nuclear weapons are cruel after all.
Once this weapon flows into the hands of irresponsible countries and organizations, it is like opening the "Pandora's Box", which is a disaster for all mankind.
Therefore, in 1968, major countries such as the United States and the Soviet Union jointly signed the " Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons", which stipulated that nuclear countries cannot transfer nuclear weapons to non-nuclear countries.
To date, 190 countries, including China, have joined the treaty, and no nuclear war has broken out since then.
Nuclear War risk is never "zero"
But today, the clouds of nuclear war reappear on the Ukrainian battlefield.
On November 11, while Ukrainian troops entered Khlsong City, the Russian troops retreated to the other side of the Dnieper River and blew up the bridge.
As the two armies re-entered the confrontation along the river, the statement that accused the other party of using nuclear weapons was once again rampant.
Russia and Ukraine standoff across the river
Regarding the risk of nuclear conflict in Ukraine, it is summarized in one sentence, that is, The United States and Ukraine accused Russia of using tactical nuclear weapons, while Russia said Ukraine wanted to make "nuclear dirty bombs."
Among them, the United States and Ukraine say that, as the country with the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world, Russia's nuclear survival strategy is "When Russia is invaded by a large-scale invasion or its survival is threatened, Russia will launch a nuclear counterattack."
And with the referendum of the four eastern Ukrainian states joining Russia, the question of whether the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is currently defined as an attack on Russia's mainland and whether it threatens Russia's survival has also become blurred.
And the Russian side said that although Ukraine once abolished nuclear weapons, on the basis of inheriting the four former Soviet Union's nuclear power plants, Ukraine's nuclear material reserves should not be underestimated and have the ability to make nuclear weapons.
Now, evidence obtained by Russia shows that Ukraine is plotting to make a "nuclear dirty bomb."
Of course, we have no intention of discussing whether Russia and Ukraine will use nuclear weapons in the end. Only the heads of the two countries know this answer themselves.
But after all, both countries have the ability to use nuclear weapons. Therefore, the risk of a nuclear war breaking out on the Ukrainian battlefield is by no means "zero" - and this is also one of the main themes that Colonel Zhou Bo wants to express when he issued the article.
So the question is, what should China do if a nuclear war really breaks out on the battlefield of Ukraine?
Double risks of nuclear war
If a nuclear war really breaks out on the battlefield of Ukraine, it will bring "two risks" to China.
The first risk is "nuclear proliferation risk" , which is easy to understand.
At present, there are only 5 countries in the world that have legally owned nuclear weapons, including the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France, while there are as many as 31 countries operating nuclear power plants.
Many small countries have the technology to manufacture nuclear weapons, but are bound by major powers and dare not develop nuclear weapons.
Once a nuclear war breaks out in Ukraine, it proves that the five major powers are not able to stop nuclear war and manage the world order. Other small countries will be in danger of their own risk and strive to develop nuclear weapons. The mentality of
was fully reflected in India and Pakistan 50 years ago, and caused the world's "first nuclear proliferation crisis".
In 1971, the third Indian-Pakistan War broke out, and the two major powers of the United States and the Soviet Union stood behind Pakistan and India respectively.
Although India finally won the war, it successfully promoted East Pakistan independence. However, during the war, the US Seventh Fleet aircraft carrier openly entered the Bay of Bengal interfered in the war, which greatly stimulated the nerves of the Indian government.
India believes that the United States is conducting "nuclear blackmail" and is therefore determined to develop nuclear weapons. In 1974, with the help of the Soviet Union, Britain and other countries, India successfully conducted its first nuclear explosion test.
The old enemy India has nuclear weapons, which in turn stimulated Pakistan's determination to develop nuclear weapons. After years of development, Pakistan has also successfully conducted nuclear tests.
In 1998, India and Pakistan even conducted 11 nuclear tests in a month on the border, shrouding the entire world under the "nuclear crisis".
India and Pakistan standoff
Since India and Pakistan are both neighboring countries and the nuclear test area is not far from China's border, the two countries have successively conducted nuclear tests, which greatly deteriorated our geopolitical security situation.
Today, once a nuclear war breaks out on the Ukrainian battlefield, the impact on China will be equally bad. The most direct result of
is that Japan and South Korea, two maritime neighbors, will strongly demand the development of nuclear weapons to be "used for self-protection."
Currently, Japan has 33 operational nuclear power plants, and South Korea has 24. Both countries have the technical strength to develop nuclear weapons.
Once these two countries have nuclear weapons, the number of neighboring countries that have nuclear weapons will increase to 6, which can be said to be the worst "nuclear geopolitical" in the world.
In addition to Japan and South Korea, many traditional geopolitical "nemesis" may also strive to develop nuclear weapons, such as Israeli , Iran and Saudi , etc.
, which brings the "second risk" of , and the world is trapped in a large-scale nuclear war .
Regarding the harm of nuclear war, Einstein once said, "I don't know what weapons will be used in World War III, but sticks and stones will be used in World War IV."
Since then, scientists have simulated 6 different-scale nuclear wars, which have caused the harm to the world.
Scientists estimate that the global inventory of nuclear weapons is about 13,000. Even if the smallest nuclear war is considered, 27 million people will die from nuclear explosions if 100 bombs of 15,000 tons are released.
The largest global nuclear war will cause 75% of the earth's ozone layer to be destroyed. Once the ozone layer is destroyed, all living things on this earth, including humans, will be destroyed.
One of the possible consequences of the nuclear war - nuclear winter
In the global nuclear war, China, which has the strictest principles and promises to "not use nuclear weapons first", will be in the most disadvantageous position.
Therefore, Colonel Zhou Bo issued a document saying that we will stand firmly on the side opposing the use of nuclear weapons, whether it is Russia or Ukraine.
Only in this way can it be in our best interests.
Means of China to maintain peace
So, what methods do we have to prevent the outbreak of a nuclear war?
In this regard, we can refer to the solution to the North Korean nuclear issue.
Several years ago, North Korea conducted nuclear tests, violating North Korea's promise of "nuclear non-proliferation".
Although North Korea is our traditional friend and we also understand North Korea's security concerns when facing the threat of the United States, we still issue a statement expressing our firm opposition and strongly demand that North Korea adhere to its commitment to denuclearization.
After that, under the framework of the United Nations, my country cooperated with United Nations Security Council to impose several rounds of sanctions on North Korea.
The most severe of these is from February 2017 to December 2017, when my country completely suspended the sanctions for importing North Korean coal .
This is a big blow to the North Korean economy, because 3 billion of North Korea's annual foreign exchange income comes from China, and 1.2 billion of these 3 billion comes from coal.
In addition, China has also imposed sanctions on North Korea in terms of banking, foreign trade, transportation, etc., resulting in a sharp drop in North Korea's exports.
After the suspension of Sino-North Korea trade, North Korea's economy immediately fell into trouble.
Refer to the sanctions plan for the North Korean nuclear issue, our attitude on the Ukraine issue is also very clear.
That is, once any party uses nuclear weapons, our country will impose economic sanctions on it under the framework of the United Nations . The means used by
include suspending import and export trade with the country, financial cooperation, energy cooperation, etc.
As the world's largest trade power, China will greatly change the balance of the Russian-Ukraine war once sanctions are imposed on either side of Russia-Ukraine.
The bad consequences of Russia and Ukraine must seriously consider them.
This deterrence from China will ultimately help dispel the idea of Russia and Ukraine using nuclear weapons and help maintain world peace.
In fact, whether in the past or present, our country's attitude towards nuclear war has never changed: that is, nuclear war cannot be won or won.
's attitude is the same whether it is facing geopolitical opponents or traditional friendly countries.
In addition, I would like to use China's "nuclear principles" as the conclusion:
"From the first day of possessing nuclear weapons, China has advocated the comprehensive cleanup and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons, always abide by the policy of not using nuclear weapons first at any time and under any circumstances, and clearly promise to unconditionally not use or threaten the use of nuclear weapons to countries without nuclear weapons and areas without nuclear weapons."
If all countries in the world can promise as solemnly as China, then nuclear war will really never be fought. Peace for all mankind may come one day earlier.
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