In one sentence, the current Donbas Russian army is - defeated like a mountain, and the air collapsed like a dam.
Rubye, , Lisichangsk, Kreminar and North Donetsk, who have been captured by the Russian army for several months, are now facing the threat of entering the Ukrainian army from the dividend Mansi. If the Ukrainian army takes any of these towns, it will almost kick off the Ukrainian counterattack Luhansk . Thinking about how much effort the Russian army had put into taking over Lisichangsk three months ago, now it has turned from attack to defense.
The blessings are unparalleled, and misfortunes never come alone. In the direction of Khelson , the Ukrainian army also began to launch a large-scale counterattack, and the main defense line of the Russian army has been withdrawn to Duchani. For the Russian army, there is naturally room for retreat in Khlsong. After all, it would be better to use Dnieper River as a defense barrier, but in that case, the entire territory of Khlsong cannot be controlled.
It has to be said that if the Russian army cannot defend the four New South Wales Khlsson, Zaporoze , Lugansk, and Donetsk , will face 10 challenges.
first, the national credibility will be damaged
Russia has regarded Lugansk, Donetsk, Khlsson and Zaporoze as new territory in Russia, and Putin has made a solemn promise to protect local residents. If Russia cannot fulfill its promise, it is only a matter of time before Khlsong, Zaporozhe, Lugansk and Donetsk have problems.
So, after agreeing to the entry of four places into Russia, why did Russia not make a strong counterattack against the Ukrainian army? If the final legislative procedure can be explained by Russian Duma , it is only a matter of time. If the Russian army cannot make a strong military response to the Ukrainian counterattack in the first half of October, the Ukrainian army may launch a counterattack in Lugansk, and the Russian army will find it difficult to make progress in Khlsson. Russia's national credibility will be severely damaged, and people in four New South Wales may show doubts about Russia's commitment.
Second, Putin’s personal prestige ushered in a challenge
As Russia’s supreme leader, Putin has been substantively leading Russia for more than 20 years. Putin has fought against Chechen armed forces in recent years, fought against Georgian , and fought against Syrian Civil War . Every time he was decisive and never missed.
However, in special military operations against Ukraine, it fought for 223 days. At the beginning of the war, some people even believed that the Russian army could solve the Ukrainian problem 48 hours a day. But until now, it has not yet captured the entire territory of Donbas. Maybe the Ukrainian army will have to counterattack in Luhansk.
loses Ijium , and then loses bonus Liman. If you cannot counterattack in North Donetsk and Lisichangsk, then the Russian army can really be described as "unbreakable army". After the Russian state mobilization and reserve service, the Russian army should really show some skills to the Ukrainian army.
Third, the four states will face endless wars
From the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, the wars in Donetsk, Zaporozer and Khlsson have never stopped. The reason why the Ukrainian army dared to attack was simply that they saw that the Russian army showed weakness and could not come up with any effective means.
Although Russia holds a nuclear bomb, Ukraine seems to be sure that Russia dares not use it. Because once Russia uses nuclear bombs, the United States will have to respond, at least Zelensky believes that.
Over the past decade, Russia has invested a lot in the field of nuclear weapons , even more active than building surface ship . The reason is to form an asymmetric advantage with the United States. From the Brava submarine-launched missile of the God of North Wind to the Salmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, a number of NATO countries were frightened.
Russia will definitely not use nuclear weapons easily unless it faces serious national threats. Once Russia uses nuclear weapons, the world will never have peace. Because if the United States does not respond, it means the West's overall failure.
Fourth, the country's strength continues to be consumed
If the war in Khlsson, Donbas and other places cannot be ended in a short time, Russia will have to overdraw high military spending every day. Judging from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although Russia can make a lot of money by selling energy, Russia's manufacturing industry is still not comparable to that of the United States, and there are obviously problems with ammunition replenishment.
Continuous consumption is very unfavorable to Russia. Against the backdrop of many Western companies withdrawing investment, Russia must focus on domestic economic development. In this way, freeing up hands to focus on developing military industry is obviously not in line with Russia's long-term and stable development.
Fifth, internal turmoil
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine develops in depth, Russia's pressure will become increasingly greater, and this pressure will slowly penetrate into the country. The successive defeats on the battlefield will also cause conflicts within the Russian military. Kadyrov is angrily scolding the Russian senior commander, obviously very dissatisfied. If this continues, there will definitely be a domino chain reaction.
Therefore, Putin must stabilize the situation as soon as possible, because only if the Russian army has an overwhelming advantage in the Ukrainian battlefield can this pressure be transferred to the United States, NATO and the Kiev authorities.
No. 6, the United States and NATO will become more arrogant and domineering
If Russia cannot win Donbas, Khlsson and other places, the Ukrainian army can continue to counterattack, then the United States and NATO will support Ukraine more unscrupulously and will ignore Russia even more. The dilemma Russia is facing now is that its conventional weapons field cannot compete with NATO. NATO's support for Ukraine is not radical. If Russia's warning to NATO cannot deter NATO, then NATO countries may provide more offensive weapons next.
Nowadays, Russia is as helpless as NATO against Russia. NATO does not dare to participate in the war directly, but Russia does not dare to take the initiative to attack NATO weapons transportation assistance lines outside Ukraine.
7th, EU isolated
EU's attitude towards Russia is to force Russia to withdraw its troops with sanctions, but if Russia retreats one after another on the battlefield, it is not ruled out that France and Germany also begin to provide large-scale military weapons assistance to Ukraine, allowing Ukraine to quickly end the battle.
For France and Germany, the longer the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is delayed, the more unfavorable it will be for Europe. The EU cannot dominate the direction of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but the EU still plays an important role in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If the EU does not follow the United States, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will change. If the EU fully aids Ukraine, the situation will also undergo significant changes in the Russian-Ukraine conflict.
But one thing is certain, Russia's retreat will only make the EU more isolated Russia. Because many small countries within the EU are followers of the United States, these small countries can sometimes affect important decisions of the EU, and even France and Germany have a headache.
8th, weapons trade exports will be affected
With the air supremacy, Russia cannot defeat the Ukrainian army. It is not surprising that Russian weapons and equipment are questioned. Ukraine can resist the Russian army by just holding the US stock weapons. This makes people sigh at what Russia's weapons and equipment advantages lies.
Russia has many multi-rocket launchers, but Ukraine only has a few Himas to pose a threat to the Russian army. The question is why Russia's multi-rocket launchers cannot destroy the Ukrainian army's launch positions? Why can't Russia's fighter find these heavy weapons that rush to the front line from a long distance?
actual combat is the best way to test weapons. In the Ukrainian battlefield, many advanced Russian fighter jets were shot down. What do potential customers of Russian weapons think in the future?
ninth, allies turn against
The United States' encirclement of Russia is not only limited to the Ukrainian battlefield. Outside the battlefield, the United States also wins over some traditional Russian allies, such as Armenian .When war broke out again in Azerbaijan and Armenia, Pelosi personally went to Armenia to condemn Azerbaijan. If Russia's strength declines, it is conceivable how many allies within Russia's traditional sphere of influence will turn against each other.
In addition to Russia's allies, countries such as Saudi and Turkey that are not interested in the United States will also give the United States a little thin because of Russia's failure in Ukraine. Such an ending is obviously not conducive to Russia's international influence.
tenth, The status of the United Nations was impacted
If Russia loses one after another in Ukraine, I believe that the West led by the United States will face Russia at the United Nations level. Now the United States will make a fuss on veto . If Russia loses, then Russia's United Nations status may be collectively suppressed by the West.
In short, Russia has taken advantage of the special military operation launched by Russia against Ukraine so far. After all, it has controlled so much territory, but who is the final victory? At present, it is not absolute.
