Introduction
On August 2, U.S. House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait suddenly became tense. Mainland China has taken tough countermeasures and declared to the world a firm determination and strong strength to defend its territory and sovereignty. How do you view the current situation in the Taiwan Strait? What deep-seated chronic diseases did Pelosi's move expose again? How should China take advantage of this opportunity to promote national reunification? Professor of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) and Dean of the Qianhai Institute of International Affairs Zheng Yongnian was interviewed by Xiakedao and answered the above questions.
Xiake Island: Pelosi visited Taiwan, and mainland Chinese netizens were filled with righteous indignation, and many people "didn't fall asleep all night." What do you think of the expression of folk sentiment in mainland China?
Zheng Yongnian: The expression of folk emotions is very natural. For Chinese people, the Taiwan issue involves sovereignty and is most likely to arouse emotions among Chinese people, and so do I. Nowadays, the United States does not care about China's national interests and the feelings of the Chinese people, so everyone is naturally angry. This is also a manifestation of our strong sense of identity with the country. But after the emotions are over, we must think more about how to maximize national interests at the realistic level.
Xiake Island: Now many voices are talking about "face" and "inside", that is, how to fight for actual national interests. The large-scale military exercises and training started by the People's Liberation Army on August 4 expressed our firm determination to safeguard territorial sovereignty. What do you think of the countermeasures in mainland China?
Zheng Yongnian: I saw some military experts in the United States and the West who specialize in China said that China's countermeasures were much stronger than during the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, which was equivalent to setting up a military blockade line and basically cutting off the Taiwan channel. It should be pointed out that mainland China does not lack the ability to "military reunification", but after all, it is a problem of national reunification, and rationality is more than emotions. We strive to achieve the big goal of national reunification at the minimum cost.
August 4, the Eastern Theater Command Rocket Force carried out a fire assault on the designated sea areas outside the eastern coast of Taiwan. This is a picture of the missile being launched. (Photo source: Xinhua News Agency)
First of all, we must recognize its root cause. The current Taiwan Strait crisis is provoked by a few American politicians and a few Taiwanese politicians, and sanctions and counterattacks must be accurate.
For example, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan reflects that the populism in American politics has risen from the social level to the government level, causing the government to fall into a certain "anarchy". There was a quarrel between the two parties in Congress, and the White House said that it could not stop the House Speaker's visit, and This just shows that the so-called separation of powers of the United States, the separation of powers and checks and balances, has essentially entered a paralyzed state. The people in the United States all act on their own based on their own interests.
In fact, since Trump came to power, the US internal affairs have been without rules and have been constantly breaking through the bottom line on the issue of the Taiwan Strait. Now the two parties are in vicious competition on the Taiwan issue, and they are competing with who is worse and more ruthless. This is true for Pelosi, , Pompeo and . The White House has to take into account the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the chaotic internal affairs. It has no time to manage the Taiwan Strait, so it is necessary to set up "guardrails". But unexpectedly, they actually wanted to turn the responsibility of setting the "guardrail" to China.
For these politicians, national interests are false, and their own votes are real, so it is obvious which one to choose. Politicians can use the rhetoric of national interests to package themselves, such as "democracy" and "freedom", which is their old routine. Even if the president cannot interfere in Congress, he can call to object directly. In the final analysis, it is because the midterm election is imminent and the two parties are competing for voters. They feel that on the issue of China, whoever has a weak attitude will suffer.
The US leadership overall is still very chaotic. Of course, for China, I don’t look at what motives you have for visiting, I just look at the results. Pelosi's visit is a bad manifestation of the US No. 3 politician breaking through one China's bottom line.
Many people in the United States think tanks and policy research circles have said that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is "bad time"; Biden also said that the US military believes that "this is not a good idea." What are you doing for provoking another big country for no reason? This is the selfish politician being led by his own interests. It is a symbol of the decline of American political wisdom, not a manifestation of the toughness of the United States.
Biden and Pelosi (Photo source: USA Today)
Not only the United States, but even members of the British House of Commons have jumped out to play the "Taiwan card". This is really strange. My own democracy is shaking, and I still have to jump out to "protect Taiwan's democracy." Populism in the United States and Britain has penetrated into elite politics and is terminally ill. These old "lighthouse countries" always throw the problem out, which is very sad.
Xiake Island: From the last US government to the present, American politicians have almost never stopped manipulating issues on the Taiwan Strait, and they have been constantly hollowing out one-China principle . Some analysts believe that the downward trend in the global economic situation may intensify geopolitical risks, and many people are worried about military conflicts in the Taiwan Strait. What do you think about this?
Zheng Yongnian: Taiwan issue is a link in Sino-US relations, the most important and sensitive link, but not all links. solves the Taiwan issue, not to say that China can achieve national reunification by fighting a war with the United States. Some people think that as long as the United States is defeated and driven out of the Western Pacific, the problem can be solved. I think this idea is narrow. Why do you say so? The weight of the United States losing Taiwan is completely inequality because China losing Taiwan. For the United States, Taiwan is a link in the Western Pacific and a card against China in the geopolitical chess game, but for China, the Taiwan issue is related to national reunification. This is the biggest difference. The United States always regards Taiwan as a tool to maintain global hegemony and restrict China, but the problem is that betting on Taiwan is likely to accelerate the decline of the United States.
Looking back on history, the party that represents the interests of politicians and does not represent the interests of the country will never win the party that represents the interests of all the people. In addition to using nuclear weapon to bomb Japan, the United States' war in Asia failed in North Korea, Vietnam , and Afghanistan . Even if conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the United States has no chance of winning. Because sovereignty issues and national unity issues are core interests among core interests, they cannot be measured by how much money or how many shells are spent.
Our goal has never been to politicians like Pelosi, but to the unity of the country. For some American politicians, the greatest interest is Taiwan’s peaceful “independence”; for mainland China, the greatest interest is cross-strait reunification. The two goals are opposite, and it takes multiple ways to solve them.
For example, this military exercise is a symbol of "island closure". There is an opportunity in "danger", Pelosi is not the first or the last provoker, and mainland China will not be the last military exercise. In 1996, the exercise was close to the mainland, but now it is about , Taiwan Island, . Back then, Mao Zedong used the bombardment of Kinmen to remind Taiwan and the world that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait were still in a state of civil war. Now our exercise is also a reminder to the outside world that if the war is triggered again due to the United States or Taiwan factors, it is also a fact that it has to be accepted.
3 to achieve national unity, and choose between "carrot" and "stick". Carrots can be sweetened, but the stick must not be hard enough. does not have a big stick. Just giving carrots, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait may go further and further. It is not enough to have a big stick. After all, both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese, so the two must come together. Under the current situation, the big stick should be the main focus.
As planned, fighter jets are conducting ground assault drills.(Photo source: Xinhua News Agency)
Xiake Island: What new observations do you have on the issue of national reunification over time and the situation changes?
Zheng Yongnian: After the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, Sino-US relations can return to a relatively stable state, which is related to the subsequent progress of the United States' shift to the anti-terrorism struggle and China's accession to WTO. But the current domestic situation in the United States is very bad, and competition among politicians and party members is intensifying. The crisis in the Taiwan Strait continues to worsen, and the United States repeatedly encourages Taiwan to "independence" by "cutting sausages". China must also officially launch the "sausage-cutting" method to promote unity.
In this sense, doing this exercise seriously is the beginning of the gradual unification of "cutting sausages". The current situation is good and is very close to Taiwan. Will the Taiwan army dare to shoot the first shot? This time, let the world see that the so-called "middle line of the strait" does not exist, because Taiwan has never been "independence". What "middle line" is there in a country's territory? !
As for war, the more you want to avoid war, the more likely the war will occur. The more you are prepared, the more you can avoid war. The more you are afraid, the more your opponent will be; the more prepared you are to use force, the less likely you will be to war. For example, in recent years, China's military power in the South China Sea has developed. Although China and the United States often compete, there is no war. The same is true for
Taiwan. If China and the United States really compete and impose Taiwan on the island, the people on the island will collapse. At that time, will the United States really fight a high-intensity war with China in order to "defend Taiwan"? I'm afraid the "Taiwan independence" elements themselves don't believe it.
Don't be aggressive and don't be afraid. Stay rational and upright, Taiwan is China's inherent territory. We don’t look for trouble but we are never afraid of trouble. When the opportunity comes, we will not be wasted.
(The content of this article was originally published on Xiake Island, written by: Gongzi Wuji)
Editor: GBA Review New Media
