Russian media "Military Review" recently published a statement claiming that according to the analysis of the US strategic think tank, the Chinese Navy will catch up with the US Navy fleet in 2030, that is, 8 years later. According to data research and calculations from the Centers for Strategic and Budget Assessment (CSBA), the total tonnage of the Chinese Navy may almost double by 2030.
In eight years, the number of Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier and ballistic missile nuclear submarine and other surface fleets will increase significantly, with a growth index of about 40%. The basis for the conclusion of
is that the strength of the Chinese Navy fleet has almost doubled in less than 9 years from 2010 to 2018. If it continues to be built at the same speed, the total tonnage of the Chinese Navy may double again in another 8 years. China can build two more aircraft carriers, , and at least 4 nuclear-powered submarines with ballistic missiles, , and put them into use.
Russian media believes that China has the ability to increase its aircraft carrier fleet from 3 to 5 by 2030, increase the number of cruisers and destroyers from 36 to 60, and the number of Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines can also increase from 6 to 10. The total tonnage of Chinese naval ship will increase from 1.3 million tons today to about 2 million tons. The U.S. Navy has 6 aircraft carriers, 50 cruisers and destroyers in , and also has eight nuclear-powered submarines equipped with ballistic missiles.
This is a huge strike force in the lineup, and it can also be strengthened by ship of Atlantic Fleet . The U.S. Navy's total tonnage around the world is about 4.5 million tons, while the total tonnage of U.S. warships roaming around China account for almost half of the total tonnage. However, it should be pointed out that Russian media has made many mistakes in the current data of the Chinese Navy. For example, the current total tonnage of the PLA Navy is 2.3 million tons instead of 1.3 million tons. The PLA does not have cruisers, and the total number of destroyers it owns is not 36 but 50, while the total tonnage of the US Navy is 3.5 million tons, not 4.5 million tons.
U.S. Navy adviser Craig Hooper said that China's fleet development must be continuously monitored today. He believes that if the Chinese Navy can have five aircraft carriers, it will greatly enhance the long-range delivery capabilities of the Chinese Navy and give the Chinese Navy the ability to crush the navies of the United States, Japan and South Korea. Moreover, if China launches an aircraft carrier, then correspondingly, China will also provide the aircraft carrier with the surface ship and submarine required for the new aircraft carrier strike group. This requires China to build more warships . But for China, these are not difficult issues and said that China has everything: enough labor, sufficient factories, and cheap resources. It can fully support it to continuously "dumpling dumplings" to build warships and "one pot at a time".
The United States understands this and they are very aware that China's production capacity is huge. As for human resources, China has a huge advantage compared to the United States, and the United States has obviously begun to experience a crisis of insufficient production capacity in the military field. China has a great chance of winning in the next round of shipbuilding. So far, the Chinese Navy has three aircraft carriers. If China's military shipbuilding industry continues to develop aircraft carriers at this rate, there will be no problem with the PLA Navy having five aircraft carriers by 2030.
And according to the current speed of the Chinese Navy's shipbuilding, the Chinese Navy has at least 70 destroyers in 2030, of which the 055 series large destroyers alone will have at least 16, including 8 early 055 models and 8 improved 055A models. The construction time of the Chinese large drive is shorter, with only 2-3 years of construction cycle. China will also significantly produce the new nuclear submarine . The new 094A strategic nuclear submarine is expected to build four new ones, and the 095 nuclear submarine may also build two in advance. In short, the speed of development of the Chinese navy has surpassed the US military.
Today, as the US manufacturing industry continues to decline, it is no longer possible to build large surface ships in batches as quickly as before. Through the analysis of shipbuilding data that the United States has gradually sluggish in recent years, this is no longer a secret. The United States is now unable to build warships in large quantities like China. After all, the situation has changed.The same is true for Russia. The Russian shipbuilding industry is shrinking even more. For example, the task set by the Russian government for the Russian shipbuilding industry is to build two aircraft carriers within eight years. In theory, it seems to be fine, but in fact it cannot be completed at all. Due to the overload of the shipyard, insufficient technical reserves, lack of professional personnel, lack of supporting industrial systems, and insufficient budget, Russia's possible construction of aircraft carriers is basically ruled out, unless there is external assistance.
Therefore, it is only a matter of time before the Chinese Navy surpasses the US Navy. After all, the US Navy will have a day to finish its old capital. Today, the US Navy is facing an inevitable collapse of scale and is in a period of rapid landslide year after year. Of course, to be fair, it is too early to talk about the topic of the Chinese Navy completely surpassing the US Navy in 8 years. Although the United States is now saying that the shipbuilding industry is shrinking, it cannot stand its foundation. It is completely fine to extend its life for more than 20 years. For example, the huge scale of US nuclear aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines is something that China cannot catch up in a short period of time. Therefore, the biggest possibility is that in 8 years, the total number of the PLA Navy on conventional ships, such as destroyers and frigates, will surpass the US Navy, but on large ships such as aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, , and nuclear submarines, we are still far from the US Navy. Therefore, in terms of overall maritime power comparison, the PLA Navy is still slightly inferior and needs to redouble its efforts in the future.
