In this world, there are many unexpected and unexpected things. Many times, the situation changes suddenly in the blink of an eye, especially in wars. At the end of February, few people would have thought that , Putin would actually launch a special military operation directly against Ukraine . As of the last day of June, this sudden war had lasted for 4 months. Many months.
Just when the world thought that Russia would continue to launch a fierce attack on Ukraine and that Putin would never give up, Putin rarely gave in. There are at least four new trends worth noting.
Trend 1: Putin gives the Azov Battalion a "way to survive." When the Azov Steel Plant defenders surrendered collectively, Russia threatened that all Azov battalion soldiers who had committed war crimes would be "brought to justice" by Russia. However, according to information disclosed by the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Service, Russia and Ukraine recently exchanged prisoners of war.
The Donetsk civilian armed forces confirmed this incident. Russia used 144 Mariupol defenders in exchange for the return of 144 Russian soldiers safe and sound. Surprisingly, the 144 Ukrainian armed personnel released by the Russian army included 43 Azov Battalion soldiers who had guarded the steel plant.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine disclosed whether the 43 people included the Azov battalion commander. Pro-Russian armed forces stated that the prisoners of war exchanged by Ukraine were valuable Russian soldiers.
There are no more than two reasons why Putin made concessions at this time.
1, the 43 Azov Battalion prisoners used for exchange have been confirmed to have "not harmed the people of Donbass ", so Russia will be merciful and allow these Azov Battalion soldiers to return to Ukraine.
2, the Russian soldiers captured by Ukraine are very important to Russia. In order to prevent the Russian prisoners from suffering, Russia changed its attitude, although releasing the Azov battalion meant asking for trouble.
Trend 2, Russian troops took the initiative to evacuate Snake Island . On June 30, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Russian army had completed its military mission of evacuating from Snake Island. Russia tried to tell the world through this move that Russia did not prevent Ukraine from exporting food through the Black Sea nor did it prevent the United Nations. establishes humanitarian corridor.
Russia emphasized that after this, Ukraine will completely lose its footing if it wants to accuse Russia of "controlling the northern Black Sea and causing a global food crisis."
Putin has stated many times that Russia has no intention to prevent Ukraine from exporting food from the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. The reason why global food security cannot be guaranteed is because the United States and Europe have imposed severe sanctions on Russia. Putin promised that Russia is willing to increase grain exports.
It's okay now. The Russian army has voluntarily left Snake Island, and Ukraine can export food from the Black Sea with peace of mind. From now on, if the food crisis is not resolved, it will be difficult for Ukraine and Western countries led by the United States to cause trouble to Russia.
In order to recapture Snake Island from the Russian army, Ukraine tried its best. In May, after Zelenskiy gave the order, the Ukrainian army launched a large-scale counterattack on Snake Island. The two sides broke out in an air battle over Snake Island, but the final result was not worth the gain. Ukraine lost a large number of aircraft and drones, and Ihor, deputy commander of Ukrainian naval aviation, died on the battlefield, but the Russian army still controls Snake Island.
From a Russian perspective, it is indeed not easy for Putin to allow Russian troops to withdraw from Snake Island, because Snake Island guards the throat of Ukrainian ships entering and exiting the Black Sea. Controlling Snake Island means that the Russian army can preemptively attack Odessa from the Black Sea. In addition, it can also prevent NATO from providing supplies and weapons to Ukraine from the Black Sea.
But at the moment, in order to make Ukraine no longer suspicious of Russia and alleviate the global food crisis, Putin has chosen to make concessions, which is indeed not easy.
If nothing unexpected happens, Ukraine will soon control Snake Island.
Of course, from another perspective, Putin's actions demonstrate Russia's confidence. In Putin's view, it is not difficult for the Russian army to make a comeback and regain control of Snake Island.
Trend Three: Putin has no objection to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Turkey After Turkey changed its attitude, Finland and Sweden joined NATO, which became a matter of course. The whole world was watching what actions Russia would take.
html On the 29th, Putin said that Finland and Sweden are different from Ukraine. If you want to join NATO, just join it. Russia will not stop it. Of course, Putin has drawn a red line for Finland and Sweden, which is "not allowed to deploy NATO troops or military infrastructure." Otherwise, Russia will be forced to respond.Previously, Russia's attitude was relatively tough on the matter of "Finland and Sweden's application to join NATO." Russia warned Finland and Sweden at the time that joining NATO would mean giving up part of its sovereignty in the fields of defense and diplomacy, and would also undermine stability in Northern Europe.
In order to deter Finland, Putin also "stopped" Finland and deployed ballistic missiles on the Finnish border.
But at the moment, Putin's attitude has undergone a 180-degree turn. Not only did Russia not warn Finland and Sweden, but it also uncharacteristically stated that Russia would not be worried by the two countries joining NATO.
It is not difficult for anyone with a discerning eye to see that when the overall situation has been decided for Finland and Sweden to join NATO, Putin's statement more or less means that there is nothing he can do. For Russia, it is undoubtedly difficult to accept Finland and Sweden joining NATO, but at the moment, Russia is powerless to prevent Finland and Sweden from doing so.
If Putin continues to strongly warn Finland and Sweden, the situation may take a turn for the worse, and Russia may face the dilemma of being attacked from both sides, which is not in Russia's interests. After all, the Finnish Army is not weak. The United States and NATO have also promised to ensure Finland's security. Once it falls into a two-front battle, Russia may not be able to withstand it.
Trend Four: After the Russian army suffered huge casualties, Putin prepared to adjust his tactics. On the 29th, Putin stated that he would not change the goals of the special military operation, but Russia may make changes in tactics.
Putin emphasized that the Russian military will not attack civilian targets.
The speed with which Putin adjusted his tactics is visible to the naked eye. Even though the bridge was almost completely blown up, a large number of Ukrainian troops were able to evacuate from Severodonetsk unharmed. This was the result of Russia's deliberate actions. Because the Russian army did not We are willing to "kill them all" against the Ukrainian army. Putin knows very well that if the Ukrainian army is not left with a way to retreat, the Ukrainian army will inevitably resist to the end. Even if the strategic location of Severonetsk is captured by then, Russia will pay a heavy price.
Judging from Putin's continuous concessions, Russia may just give up and bring this war to an end at the right time. In order to win over allies and push Russia to the cliff, the United States is maneuvering across Europe. For Russia, if it continues to fight, it will face many uncertain factors.
On the one hand, Russia does have the ability to end wars with war. Its abundant energy and food reserves are also conducive to the Russian army's continued operations. But on the other hand, the protracted sanctions from the United States and Europe will inevitably hit the Russian economy hard.
As a large number of Russian soldiers die on the battlefield, the anti-war sentiment of the Russian people will also rise.
At present, the Russian army has controlled almost all of Luhansk and Kherson , as well as most of Donetsk and Zaporozhye , and also captured the entire Sea of Azov. At this moment, if both Russia and Ukraine can make concessions, Russia can bring the war to an end with dignity, and Russia, Ukraine and the EU will all be happy to see this happen.
Of course, decided between war and peace. From the beginning, it was not Russia, let alone Ukraine, but the United States that fanned the flames. To a certain extent, the longer the Russia-Ukraine conflict lasts, the more benefits the United States can seize. The reason why Putin wants to make concessions at this time may be related to the holding of the G7 Summit and the NATO Summit.
Putin has extended an olive branch, the EU also intends to cool down the situation, and Ukraine also wants to end the fighting. Next, it depends on how the United States will act.
