lost the southeastern city of Severodonetsk, and its practical and symbolic significance to Russia is far greater than Ukraine . In other words, Ukraine's loss of Severodonetsk is a loss, but the loss is not too great.
Since last Friday, Ukrainian troops and Russian troops finally abandoned this city in Luhansk Oblast after weeks of fierce fighting.
Lugansk Governor Serhiy Haidai emphasized in a TV interview: "It is meaningless to continue to occupy a city that has been destroyed to pieces after months of fierce fighting!"
Under the bombardment of Russian heavy artillery , the Ukrainian army almost All defensive positions in the Luhansk region were lost. It doesn't matter if we lose such a completely destroyed city. This is just a small loss. After all, the border city of Lischichansk is still in the hands of more than 10,000 Ukrainian troops. After months of fierce fighting between Ukrainian troops and Russian troops in Luhansk, Luhansk completed its mission.
and The Kremlin is now celebrating the Russian army's capture of Luhansk. Because, it is one of several cities under the control of the Ukrainian army in the Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk is the smallest and poorest oblast in Ukraine. Moreover, since 2014, some areas of Lugansk Oblast have been in the hands of pro-Russian local armed forces.
For Russia, capturing the entire Luhansk Oblast contains a geopolitical component. Because Severodonetsk, which was once uncaptured, is located in the heart of Luhansk. For Ukraine, the focus is more on the military perspective. As the Ukrainian government emphasizes, abandoning Severodonetsk is just a strategic shift.
Furthermore, for Russia, taking the entire Luhansk Oblast will allow Russia to regroup its troops to deal with the resistance of the Ukrainian army in the southern Karlsson region and Zaporozhye .
Of course, it is undeniable that for Ukraine, any loss of territory, no matter how big or small, is a loss. However, the Battle of Severodonetsk could not become a decisive battle marking Russia's victory.
After two months of fierce fighting in Severodonetsk, which has a population of only about 100,000, it is also a "blood loss" in a sense for Russia. Because the Ukrainian army consumed a lot of the Russian army's effective forces here.
From the long-term perspective of this Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia is in a state of uncertainty. For example, the serious casualties of soldiers and the low morale caused by long-term war of attrition. As well as the shortage of manufacturing and replenishing key weapons faced by Western sanctions, such as the manufacture of precision-guided missiles, etc.
That said, time seems not to be on Russia's side. Continuing to fight for a long time will bring Russia into a situation where resource replenishment is unsustainable.
I remember that not long ago, the Russian army tried to strengthen the Northern Donets River around Severonetsk several times, but all ended in failure. During this period, many casualties were caused and military equipment was destroyed.
One of the important reasons for the loss of Severodonetsk was the indiscriminate bombardment from the Russian military's absolutely superior artillery fire. Russia not only used multiple launch rockets and bombers, but also used expired Tochka U tactical cruise missiles to bomb military and civilian facilities in Ukraine. As a result, in addition to the destruction of all positions of the Ukrainian army. At the same time, Severodonetsk became a scorched earth. Losing such a completely destroyed city made little sense from a military perspective.
In any case, even if Russia finally captured the border city of Lisichansk and occupied the entire Luhansk region, there was no victory that Russian President Putin wanted.
A few months ago, the Russian army still failed to capture Kiev and northern Ukraine at the cost of thousands of casualties and the loss of hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles . He was also accused of committing "war crimes against civilians."
As a result, in early April this year, the Russian army had to retreat.At that time, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Russian military focused on capturing the Donbass region, including Luhansk and Donetsk.
However, in Donetsk, a larger and more populous province, Ukrainian troops still control at least two-fifths of the area. Since 2014, when pro-Russian local armed forces controlled a third of Donetsk, the Ukrainian army has established strong defensive positions in Donetsk. Now it has also been proved that for the Russian army, it is more difficult to win Donetsk than Luhansk.
At the same time, for Ukraine, the immediate economic consequences after losing the entire Luhansk will be minimal. Because, as early as 2014, Luhansk's main industries, such as factories, power stations, mining, etc., had been controlled by pro-Russian local armed forces. The Ukrainian army only controls a large area of agricultural land in the area.
As early as early May, the Ukrainian army lost some scattered small chemical and fiber factories in Severodonetsk, Lisichansk and Rubizhny .
It is worth mentioning that due to the ongoing fighting, all those industrial plants in the Lugansk region have suspended production for a long time.
There is no doubt that if Ukraine loses Mariupol that it controls in Donetsk, the consequences will be much more serious than the current loss of Northern Donetsk. Because Mariupol is an administrative center, a port city, and has two large industrial plants with great economic value.
The Ukrainian army only lost it after a long battle with the Russian army in Severodonetsk. The compensation it received was: it consumed the Russian army’s reserve force and the key weapons it relied on, and to a certain extent, it hit the Russian army’s morale. The Russian army may have felt "exhausted" in order to capture the small and relatively worthless Severodonetsk.
As for the Ukrainian army itself, abandoning Severodonetsk can avoid greater casualties, preserve its strength, and regroup.
In terms of international diplomacy, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said this last Friday (June 24): When World War II was about to begin, Hitler summoned some European countries to deal with the Soviet Union. But now, EU and NATO have formed a new generation alliance to declare war on the Russian Federation.
From the Kremlin’s public criticism, accusing Europe today of being like Nazi Germany under Hitler’s control during World War II, one can feel that Russia currently seems to have a negative attitude towards Western countries’ blind support of Ukraine against Russia. Anger and “frustration.”
All in all, Ukraine’s loss of Severodonetsk is of little significance, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not end with this!
