Recently, Japan has conducted intensive interactions with NATO , an extraterritorial military organization. The Japanese government recently announced that the ratio of its defense expenditure to gross national product will be "in line" with NATO-related goals, and later stated that the country's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will attend the NATO summit at the end of this month.
What is the purpose of Japan's move? Experts analyze that Japan is moving closer to NATO under the "manipulation" of the United States. The purpose is to promote military communication and cooperation with NATO member states in order to better cooperate with the United States in implementing the "Indo-Pacific Strategy." Against this background, Japan continues to improve its military strength and seeks breakthroughs in its existing defense policies. This move not only exposes the country's people to risks, but also opens a "Pandora's Box" in surrounding areas.
The "manipulator" behind the scenes of the United States
The United States not only hopes that Japan and other allies in the Asia-Pacific region will continue to strengthen their military strength, but also requires them to enhance military communication and coordination with NATO to provide a foothold for NATO and other foreign military forces to intervene in the Asia-Pacific region.
Japan has had very frequent interactions with NATO recently. In April this year, the Japanese Foreign Minister participated in the NATO Foreign Ministers' Meeting for the first time; in May, Japan Self-Defense Force Integration Chief of Staff Yamazaki Koji participated in the NATO Military Committee Chief of Staff Meeting; on June 6, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force in Mediterranean Sea held joint military exercises with NATO; on June 7, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee Power was invited to visit Japan.
"Liberation Army Daily" pointed out that Japan's approach to NATO reflects the attempt of the "manipulator" the United States to rely on NATO to bind its Asia-Pacific allies. Japan has also "expressed its loyalty" many times since the Biden administration came to power in the United States, becoming a "vanguard" in following the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy."
The US "Defense News" website reported on June 3 that Japan plans to send the recently modified "Izumo" quasi-aircraft carrier to the "Indo-Pacific region" for annual deployment and participate in the "Rim of the Pacific Exercise-" in the next four months. A series of training activities including "2022". This is the first time that the "Izumo" has participated in the Rim-Pacific military exercise since it has the ability to take off and land fixed-wing carrier-based aircraft.
Japanese "Izumo" number.
military commentator Wei Dongxu said that the "Izumo" is deployed overseas together with Japanese Aegis destroyers, submarines , anti-submarine aircraft , etc., which is quite similar to a small aircraft carrier formation. In recent years, Japan's research and development ideas for weapons and equipment have become more and more offensive and are deeply tied to the United States.
Wei Dongxu said that Japan Air Self-Defense Force purchased a large number of US-made F-35 fighter jets to move closer to the US weapons and equipment system. Strengthen ocean combat capabilities and island-seizing capabilities. These development ideas all show that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces have broken through the "exclusive defense" attribute in order to better cooperate with the United States in joint combat operations overseas.
In Wei Dongxu's view, the reason why the Japanese Self-Defense Forces made the above changes is to cooperate with the United States to better implement the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and assist the United States in building a larger military encirclement system in the Asia-Pacific region. He believes that the United States not only hopes that Japan and other allies in the Asia-Pacific region will continue to strengthen their military strength, but also requires them to enhance military communication and coordination with NATO to provide a foothold for NATO and other external military forces to intervene in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States will use the NATO summit to integrate its alliance system and lay the foundation for countries to cooperate with the United States in joint operations in the Asia-Pacific region in the future.
Japan has taken a "dangerous move"
The Japanese government requires defense spending to be in line with NATO. This is not only to follow the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and move closer to NATO, but also to achieve its own political goals.
Recently, Japan has promoted the growth of its own defense spending in the name of "benchmarking" the military spending of NATO member states. On June 7, the Japanese Cabinet meeting adopted the basic guidelines for economic and fiscal operations and reforms in 2022, and clearly stated that Japan’s increase in the scale of its defense budget must refer to NATO-related goals.
html On June 10, when Fumio Kishida attended the Shangri-La Dialogue (hereinafter referred to as the "Shangri-La Dialogue") in Singapore , he stated that Japan "intends to fundamentally strengthen its defense capabilities within five years" and ensure a "considerable increase in military expenditures" "." Nihon Keizai Shimbun " reported that the "military expenditure increase" mentioned by Kishida Fumio refers to the Japanese ruling party Liberal Democratic Party recently proposed to increase Japan's defense expenditure from 1% of gross national product to 2%. plan. In April this year, when the Liberal Democratic Party's security investigation committee drafted recommendations on revising the National Security Strategy and other documents, it included the above-mentioned goal of increasing defense spending and required it to be completed within five years.
Deputy Dean of the Japan Research Institute at Nankai University Zhang Yulai believes that controlling defense spending at 1% of gross national product has long been Japan's practice and has also been a "red line" for successive Japanese governments in the country's defense policy. The Kishida government and the Liberal Democratic Party not only want to break through this "red line", but also "double it", which can be described as a "dangerous move".
F-35A fighter .
It is worth mentioning that although NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg requested all NATO member states to increase their defense budget to 2% of their gross national product, this goal has never been achieved. In 2021, only 10 of the 30 NATO members reached this level of spending. This is in sharp contrast to the Japanese government's attitude of actively increasing defense spending.
According to data released by Sweden's Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in April, including the Japanese government's additional military budget of US$7 billion in November 2021, Japan's military expenditure last year totaled US$54.1 billion, ranking ninth in the world, surpassing South Korea. , Australia and other Western Pacific countries, second only to Saudi Arabia , France and Germany.
According to this statistics, Japan's military expenditure in 2021 reached 1.1% of the gross national product, exceeding 1% for the first time since 1960, an increase of 7.3% and 18% respectively compared with 2020 and 2012.
Defense expenses have been increasing year after year. Why does the Japanese government still set a new target of 2%? Zhang Yulai believes that the Japanese government’s move is not only to follow the US “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and move closer to NATO, but also to achieve its own political goals.
Kishida Fumio first proposed the "Kishida Peace Vision" during the "Xianghui". Zhang Yulai noticed that in the "Kishida Peace Vision", the Japanese government emphasized maintaining and strengthening the "free and open international order based on rules" and proposed to strive to achieve a "nuclear-weapon-free world" to flaunt Japan's concept of a "peaceful country". It also emphasizes expanding Japan’s security role and strengthening the Japan-US alliance. The logic is obviously contradictory.
Zhang Yulai analyzed that the statement in the "Kishida Peace Vision" about fundamentally strengthening Japan's defense capabilities is one of the real purposes of the Japanese government's announcement of the vision. On this issue, the Japanese government has implicitly made two major breakthroughs: a breakthrough in the convention that defense expenditures account for 1% of gross national product, and a breakthrough in Japan's existing defense policy.
Based on reports such as "Nihon Keizai Shimbun", Kishida Fumio said at the "Xianghui" that Japan will "respond more proactively to the challenges and crises facing Japan, Asia and the world." He also mentioned the importance of having so-called "deterrence." Zhang Yulai said that Japan has long pursued the concept of "exclusive defense" after World War II. What Fumio Kishida refers to as "proactive" and "deterrent" implies the intention to break through this principle.
Zhang Yulai pointed out that the Japanese government wants to make a breakthrough in defense policy, and its ultimate goal is to get rid of the shackles of the Japan-US alliance and achieve "ordinary nationalization." This requires Japan to first demonstrate externally its military capabilities to carry the banner of a "free and open Indo-Pacific" and internally demonstrate other countries' approval of Japan's important role in regional security, so as to better promote changes in defense policies.
Opening "Pandora's Box"
If the Japanese government continues to expand its military strength and break through the constraints of the original export ban on weapons and equipment, it will surely open "Pandora's Box" and create uncontrollable risks in the Asia-Pacific region. After
"Kishida Peace Vision" was proposed, Fumio Kishida immediately launched a layout in countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan's Kyodo News previously reported that Fumio Kishida planned to negotiate with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on launching Japan's export of defense equipment and technology transfer during his visit to Singapore.
Restricted by post-war international law , Japan adopted the "Three Principles for Arms Exports " in the 1960s to completely ban the export of weapons and equipment. Since then, the Japanese government has continued to try to break and relax the ban until the Abe cabinet officially abolished the ban in 2014. In 2015, the Japanese Ministry of Defense established the Defense Equipment Agency to oversee the research, development, procurement, and export of weapons and equipment. In 2017, Japan passed the revised Self-Defense Forces Law, allowing the transfer of second-hand Self-Defense Forces equipment to other countries for free or at low prices.
Wei Dongxu pointed out that Japan and Singapore plan to launch negotiations related to Japan's export of defense equipment and technology transfer, which may mean that Japan will once again expand the scope of weapons and equipment exports and begin to export advanced weapons and equipment to markets such as Southeast Asia.
Wei Dongxu introduced that among Southeast Asian countries, Singapore has relatively abundant defense funds. Singapore is often accustomed to "less but better" when purchasing in the defense market, and prefers advanced weapons and equipment from Western countries. In recent years, Japan has adhered to the "small scale, high unit price" weapons and equipment development philosophy, and some advanced weapons and equipment may be able to meet Singapore's procurement needs.
Wei Dongxu analyzed that the sixth-generation twin-engine heavy-duty stealth fighter-F-3 jointly developed by Japan and the British company BAE may become the advanced weapons and equipment that Japan focuses on selling to Singapore. Singapore is expected to expand its weapons and equipment generation gap advantage with neighboring countries after acquiring this fighter jet. In addition, the close defense relationship between Singapore and the United Kingdom also facilitates Japan's export of this fighter jet.
F-3 fighter imaginary picture.
Wei Dongxu further analyzed that in addition to Southeast Asia, Japan is also concerned about exporting advanced weapons and equipment to Australia, India and European countries. Although Japan will face fierce competition with Western weapons and equipment, in order to demonstrate its military strength and move towards becoming an "ordinary country", the Japanese government will definitely make a big splash in the international defense market.
Wei Dongxu believes that Japan has actually imitated the United States' idea of expanding its own military hegemony, using arms sales and military aid to win over other countries, "forming gangs" in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to go overseas, and enhancing Japan's military influence. This model of using arms sales to achieve political goals will have an important impact on the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region.
Zhang Yulai analyzed that Japan has recently shown a strong speculative tone when it intervenes in international hot topics and promotes adjustments to its defense policies, and it also faces speculative risks. If the Japanese government continues to expand its military strength and break through the constraints of the original export ban on weapons and equipment, it will surely open a "Pandora's box" and create uncontrollable risks in the Asia-Pacific region.
Zhang Yulai noticed that the Japanese government and some right-wing politicians are using "Xianghui" and other occasions to legitimize the goal of promoting breakthrough defense policies. However, as Japan's aging problem becomes increasingly serious and its national strength continues to decline, the Japanese government's move will also put a greater "burden" on the country's finances and burden its own people.
"The 'pacifist path' adhered to by the Japanese government after World War II is a key factor in the country's economic development and the people's real benefits. If the Japanese government continues to be 'military', it will take the country in a very wrong direction. "Zhang Yulai said.
[Reporter in Beijing] Ling Xi
[Author] Ling Xi
Military Intelligence Observation
