reverses, reverses and reverses, changes after changes. This is the best portrayal of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine.
At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered its 124th day. As the fighting in the Severonetsk region continues, the war in eastern Ukraine is at a critical stage. The outcome of this battle will determine the overall direction of the situation between Russia and Ukraine.
At the same time, as the Group of Seven (G7) summit and the NATO summit were successively held in Europe, the heads of state of the United States, Britain, France and Germany gathered together to formulate new policies to put pressure on Russia, which is also putting pressure on Russia and Ukraine. The situation has become increasingly volatile and turbulent.
As tensions continue to rise, 3 new trends are reported.
Trend 1: During the fierce fighting between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian Defense Minister suddenly came to the front line.
html On the 26th, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu arrived at the front line, inspected the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, and held relevant meetings at the Russian forward command post.As Minister of Defense, Shoigu is one of the main persons in charge of Russian military operations. This trip is not only his first visit to the front line, but also the first time that the Russian military has welcomed the highest-level official on the front line.
Therefore, it is very unusual and significant for Shaoyigu to go to the front line this time. During this period, Shoigu mainly did three things:
The first was to listen to the reports of the frontline Russian commanders and understand the latest situation on the battlefield;
The second was to provide all necessary life support for the frontline Russian troops;
The third was to provide Russian troops who performed bravely during the battle were awarded state medals, including the Russian Hero "Gold Star" Medal and the "Courage" Medal.
Obviously, on the surface, Shoigu's visit to the front line this time is mainly to "consol the soldiers and boost morale." But in fact, considering the current war situation in Severodonetsk, it is also to "stabilize the morale of the military." feeling.
Shoigu
On the one hand, in the Battle of Severodonetsk, although the Russian army gained a greater advantage and controlled most of the city, it is undeniable that the Russian army also paid huge casualties and costs, and even more The Ukrainian army was "stuck in its progress" by stubborn resistance.
On the other hand, the end of the Battle of Severodonetsk does not mean the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian army may still face the choice of "continue to advance in eastern Ukraine or go south to Odessa" , But no matter which choice, the Russian army will continue to fight.
Having been in a highly tense and alert combat state for a long time, the Russian army is under tremendous psychological pressure all the time.
Of course, it is undeniable that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to this day, and both sides have faced the dilemma of "fatigued veterans and insufficient troop resources" .
Therefore, it was not easy for Shoigu to go to the front line in person this time, even though the Russian army had achieved certain results in Severodonetsk.
In addition, Russia’s Defense Minister Shoigu went to the front line to express condolences to the soldiers, and Ukraine also took action.
Trend 2: Ukraine regroups and gathers its troops to continue fighting.
html On the 26th, after the Russian army captured most of the area in Severodonetsk, Budanov, director of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency, said that it was no longer possible to hold the defense line in Severodonetsk. The Ukrainian army was regrouping towards Lisichansk. , preparing to take advantage of the higher terrain of the area to continue fighting with the Russian army.It is reported that Lisichansk and Severodonetsk are adjacent to each other, and the two places are "across the river".
In other words, the Ukrainian army's retreat from Severodonetsk is likely to be 's "tactical retreat." is not giving up on Severodonetsk, but retreating to the "second line of defense" and relying on favorable terrain to continue fighting with the Russian army. Combat.
Moreover, judging from the fact that the Ukrainian army regrouped and planned to rely on the terrain to "defeat the low with high," this was obviously a strategic deployment made in advance.
In addition, Western weapons are entering the scene one by one, and the combat power of the regrouped Ukrainian army will increase accordingly. By then, the Battle of Severodonetsk and the Battle of Lisichansk will be "connected". Even if the Russian army has achieved certain results, does not mean victory.
In short, the Battle of Wudong is of great significance and far-reaching influence. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will let go easily, let alone compromise easily. There are still many variables and uncertainties in this fierce battle.
However, while the competition "on the battlefield" continues to heat up, the game "off the field" of is equally intense.
Trend Three: At the G7 summit, the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other countries once again joined forces to put pressure on Russia.
html On the 27th, the United States announced that it would join other G7 member states in banning the import of gold from Russia. Prior to this, the United States, Britain, Canada and Japan had officially made this decision.In other words, among the G7 members, 4 countries have agreed to ban the import of gold from Russia, and the remaining 3 countries, whether from the perspective of "the minority obeys the majority" or from the current Western view of "putting pressure on Russia" From a "political correctness" perspective, there is no reason to refuse.
Obviously, this is another major manifestation of the West's joint efforts to put pressure on Russia.
According to US Secretary of State Blinken, gold is Russia’s second largest export product, second only to energy, and most of the gold exported by Russia flows into the G7 countries, so the embargo on Russian gold will cause Russia 190 billion yuan per year. Billion dollar losses.
At first glance, what Blinken said sounds like that, but in fact, this time the West sanctions Russia, it is likely that it will be another "stealing chicken but losing rice" .
At first, Russia was indeed the world's largest gold exporter, but judging from the situation in the past few years, the G7 countries are no longer the largest export target of Russian gold, but Asian countries such as India.
Therefore, the G7's sanctions against Russia this time are actually a bit like "punching cotton" .
Secondly, gold is a hard currency. Even one of the foundations of the US dollar’s hegemony is linked to gold. Now that the G7 does not import Russian gold, other countries will naturally import it, and Russia does not have to worry about buyers.
Thirdly, just because the G7 does not buy Russian gold does not mean that it does not need to import gold.
By then, the gold bought by the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other countries from other countries will most likely be the gold sold by Russia, and the price will definitely be higher.
To give a simple example, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the West embargoed Russian oil and then imported oil to India. As everyone knows, Indian oil is Russian oil, and India bought it at a "discounted price" at the time. But when sold to the West, the price is "marked up."
Therefore, just like oil, the G7 seems to have "digged a big hole" for itself in the gold trade. It feels that the political symbolism is greater than the actual sanctioning significance. After all, if the G7 leaders gather together and do not invent new means to put pressure on Russia, it does feel a bit like "the summit was in vain" to the West.
But having said that, it is impossible for G7 to be aware of such a simple relationship between pros and cons. It does not rule out the possibility of taking this opportunity to disrupt the international gold market and then take advantage of it to make profits.
In short, no matter what the possibility is, it is an indisputable fact that the West joins forces to put pressure on Russia. As for the long-term pros and cons, let’s see how the situation develops.
Finally, let’s talk about three superficial views.
First, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to intensify, which not only brings more variables to the tense situation, but also creates more obstacles to the ceasefire.
For Russia, it has achieved a lot of results so far, and it is bound to further expand its results and achieve its set goals; for Ukraine, it has resisted the Russian army for 124 days, and now that it has returned to the negotiating table, its previous efforts are likely to be Will be burned to the ground.
In short, what cannot be obtained on the battlefield will be even more difficult to obtain at the negotiation table. The conflict continues to this day, with both sides unconvinced and unwilling to return to the negotiating table easily. As a result, it will be more difficult for the international community to "persuad peace and promote talks."
Second, sanctions are a double-edged sword, hurting others and even more harmful to ourselves.
Today, the severe energy, economic and food crises faced by the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other countries are one of the "sequelae" of sanctions against Russia. These crises have also triggered violent turmoil in the world.
At present, the West continues to join forces to put pressure on Russia, which is undoubtedly "fanning the flames" of tensions. It will not only intensify the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also increase the probability of direct military conflict between Russia and the West.
No one can guarantee that after the West pushes Russia to the wall, Russia will take more outrageous and radical actions.
In short, never underestimate the consequences of cornering a nuclear power, let alone Russia.
No. 3, no matter what, the war resumes and there is no winner.
The conflict lasted for 124 days. Russia and Ukraine have obviously become "losers." The continued escalation of the war will only make the two countries "lose more completely." The United States, Britain, France, Germany and other countries that have always been keen on "fanning the flames" cannot truly stay on their own. It is inevitable that will "spark the fire" and will burn themselves out.
In short, an early ceasefire and resolving conflicts through negotiation, dialogue and other means are the best way out for the situation between Russia and Ukraine.
still hopes that all parties will maintain rationality and restraint, restore peace as soon as possible, and let the world get back on track.
