The "war" mentioned in this article not only includes wars caused by resisting foreign enemies, foreign aggression, territorial disputes, etc., but also involves other types of wars caused by internal causes or other problems that readers can think of...
In the author's In my childhood, there was the saying of the "Four Asian Tigers" in Asia, including: Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea; Japan, as a country that has been the "second largest economy in the world" for many years, its comprehensive strength At the end of the last century and the beginning of this century, together with Singapore, they were "model houses" for various countries in politics and economics...
It is said that Japan is "the furthest away from the war", which may not be recognized by many readers. The most important issues involved in this are the following aspects: first, whether Japan still has the strength to launch a war; second, whether the right-wing forces in Japan will become stronger; third, the existing conflicts between Japan and its neighboring countries. Territorial disputes; the fourth is Japan's future internal and external economic situation; the fifth is a series of issues involving Japan's domestic social stability; the sixth is external pressure affecting Japan; and the seventh is the influence and binding of the United States on Japan.
Based on the above seven aspects, and taking Japan as a reference basis, we will measure the overall situation of Asian countries:
Regarding "point 1", the author believes that Japan, as an established developed country, has strong war potential. However, in this regard, compared with China, India, Vietnam, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and other countries, Japan's biggest shortcoming is still its ability to continue to fight wars. Therefore, Japan has the strength to launch a war, but this strength may not be easy to use.
At the heart of "point 2" is the willingness to wage or engage in war, and whether the gains to be made through war are worth doing so. The author believes that in a country like Japan, the growth of right-wing forces is closely related to the country's economic situation and political stability. However, the will of the upper class will eventually be transmitted to the social level, and then transmitted to the military through the will of the country, forming a top-down fanaticism. The author believes that Japan's "power politics" and "family politics" are indeed difficult to guarantee that there will be no more extreme political figures than Junichiro Koizumi . However, in view of the fact that Shinzo Abe has gone through countless hardships and ultimately failed to amend "Article 9 of the Constitution" - even if a political strongman appears, the fundamental situation is still stable, which makes it difficult for many strongmen to achieve their political goals. .
"Point 3", currently Japan has Diaoyu Islands and the East China Sea air defense identification circle with my country; it has the four northern islands with Russia, and Dokdo ( Takeshima ) with South Korea; indirect factors also involve the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan, China - The core issue is the " northern four islands " issue! Just looking at the military strength and capabilities in Asia, Japan has stronger naval and air forces than Russia, and is very likely to receive support from the United States. However, Japan's use of force to resolve the "Four Northern Islands" issue is also subject to the Constitution, public sentiment, the actual combat level of the Self-Defense Forces, the nuclear weapons of the United States and Russia, the domestic situation that cannot be compared with the early days of World War II, and the compliance and compliance of the military. The degree of fanaticism, etc...
Therefore, Japan has the hard power to solve territorial issues with force; but it does not have the soft power of "the right time, right place and right people".
"Point 4/Point 5", Japan's economy collapsed after signing the " Plaza Agreement " with the United States, and Japan has repeatedly refreshed the record of the "lost xx years". However, Japan has retained its position as the "third largest economy in the world" and its total population is only a little more than 100 million. Japan has been firmly in the second and third place in the world for decades. Its economic accumulation, technological strength, research and development capabilities and other overall conditions are still good. The most important thing is that Japan is similar to the United States, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia . Its economic focus has shifted to an investment-led one at the financial level, so it has funds to support all aspects of society.
This "anti-milk" is similar to the financial compensation provided by industry to agriculture; on the social side, it is various welfare, subsidies and assistance, such as distributing money to citizens during this epidemic - to put it simply, it is "the rich" Be willing to spend money to buy peace in the hands of the poor” (hard to understand without painful lessons). Moreover, according to feedback from some Chinese in Japan, although the gap between the rich and the poor in Japan is very large, the wage gap between various classes is at least within the range recognized and acceptable by the Japanese people; and labor and income are basically on an equal footing. state. Although houses in first-tier cities such as Tokyo and Osaka are expensive to buy, many people can afford to rent them.
Let’s analyze the information from Chinese people in Japan. It is said that Japanese rich people behave in a low-key manner and do not show off. For example, they do not like to sell luxury cars such as Mercedes-Benz BMW. In addition, Japan rarely fails to manage the economic level. Political parties and bureaucrats also pay great attention to making timely adjustments on economic and social issues. At the entire social level, men, women, old and young can lie down, despair, and commit suicide, but there is no reason to vent the incompetence of the government and the country. Moreover, in terms of social management and public opinion, middle- and lower-level public officials are diligent; there are few incidents such as shootings, attacks on police officers, class conflicts, confrontations and public violence, such as shocking upsets like South Korea's "Sewol Ferry Incident" - This at least proves that the Japanese government's ability to control, guide and handle public opinion is quite effective and reasonable - which is very beneficial to social stability, stabilizing the national situation and calming national sentiment. This makes it difficult for right-wing parties and ambitious politicians to gain ground and no opportunities to exploit. Therefore, it will not happen like Syria Bashar Assad. Although the domestic economy is booming, the gap between rich and poor will eventually drag the country into the abyss of civil war, giving the United States and other Western countries an opportunity!
"Point 6", from the analysis of "Point 4/5" it is not difficult to see that Japan's domestic pressure is less than external pressure. The author believes that Japan's external pressure comes first from the United States; this is why the author lists the United States as "point 7". It can be said that the American factor is still the initiator and main factor of various problems in Asia! For example, the so-called " Five Eyes Alliance ", which is well known to readers, is very likely to bring Japan and India into the fold in the future! Therefore, Japan's tank, which can be regarded as a castrated version, will be affected by the United States in some cases; and the United States often places Japan's various demands in its global strategy. In the past, there was a large amount of defense expenditure left. As for the future, although the author does not believe in Japan's "wolf ambition" theory, but like the situation in Asia before 1950, anyone would have wild imaginations and be too happy to sleep... ...
In addition to the external pressure from Russia due to the "Four Northern Islands"; Japan also faces North Korea's nuclear weapons, inter-Korean issues, Taiwan independence, the South China Sea ; energy, raw materials and overseas market issues closely related to the economy. The author believes that the greatest external pressure Japan has experienced is the rise of China. This is a test of the wisdom of Japanese politicians and political parties, as well as the mentality of Japanese people.
Regarding the statement that Singapore is “the furthest away from the war,” the author first thinks of Grandpa Deng’s praise and admiration for all aspects of the country. It proves that the country's political and economic structure, economic structure, political and economic policies and governance model are reasonable and worth learning from ( Lee Kuan Yew "passing the throne" Lee Hsien Loong ). Since its founding, Singapore has been the country “furthest away from war”! The war is close, and they surrendered after resisting for a week - the key is that this well-documented war was fought by the British on behalf of Singapore!
As for the comprehensive situation in other countries, readers can analyze it themselves based on the above logic. The author personally wants to express a point of view here: If we want long-term peace among Asian countries, we should expel foreign countries as a premise, and then establish an organizational structure similar to EU - this requires China, Japan, India and other state-owned Sufficient mutual trust and political grace.
