Foreword: Among the nuclear deterrence methods of major nuclear powers in the world, under modern reconnaissance and early warning methods, the vulnerability of land-based and air-based nuclear deterrence weapons has risen sharply. The strategic nuclear submarine is concealed. , Has gradually become the pillar of the second nuclear counterattack. The United States has always had a question, that is, in the ten years after 2020, what is the scale and threat of China’s strategic nuclear submarines? How many ballistic nuclear submarines can China keep on duty at the same time? , Where are the submarines stationed and where are they patrolling? How strong is the defense force? What means does the United States have to defend? Does the U.S. Navy have enough attack nuclear submarines to deal with? These are all headaches for the U.S. Navy. ,
1: The performance of Chinese ballistic nuclear submarines from the perspective of the U.S. Navy It started early but lags behind for a long time. There is a big gap between the performance of the nuclear submarines of the United States, Russia, Britain and France. China’s first ballistic missile nuclear submarine started construction in 1970, and it was only put into service in 1983 after 13 years, and it was not until 1991. The dilemma of "there are boats but no bombs" was only relieved in the year of 2010. Even with the "Julang"-1 ballistic missile, the range is only 1,800 kilometers. It is just to solve the problem and does not have the ability of strategic deterrence. By 2010, the Chinese Navy Owns a 092 class ballistic missile nuclear submarine and two 094 strategic nuclear submarine , which entered active service in 2007 and 2009. The 092 strategic nuclear submarine is very old and rarely appears in public. In the military, 092 The type of strategic nuclear submarine is a failed product, and has never completed a strategic patrol since it was launched in the early 1980s. The second-generation Type 094 strategic nuclear submarine represents a major leap in the ability to counterattack a second nuclear attack.For the first time to bring reliable underwater nuclear deterrence to China,
However, the US Naval Intelligence Office believes that the Type 094 strategic nuclear submarine does not meet the standards of modern nuclear submarines. The noise is particularly serious. The overall noise is larger than that of the "Delta II" class nuclear submarines of the Soviet Union in the 1970s. It lags far behind the third-generation nuclear submarines of the United States and Russia, and only carries 12 missiles, which is also the least in the world's active strategic nuclear submarines. Compared with the "Ohio" class ballistic missile nuclear submarine, the most obvious difference is that the Type 094 strategic nuclear submarine has a huge fairing, commonly known as the "turtle back", because the boat needs to be loaded with too long submarine-launched ballistic missiles. was installed to cover the missiles beyond the hull of the boat, which compromised to meet the requirements of "small boats with large missiles", but it also brought problems with increased fluid resistance and noise, and its concealment and survivability were affected. Almost all countries’ strategic nuclear submarines have been cancelled. The "Ohio" class hull has a diameter of 12.8 meters and is equipped with a 13.4 meter Trident I-D5 missile, so there is no towering "turtle back".
The Type 094 strategic nuclear submarine is dragged down by the length of the "Julang"-2 missile approaching 14 meters. The size and height of the "Turtleback" is larger than that of the 092 strategic nuclear submarine. The other two reasons for the "Turtleback" are that the 094 project started in the late 1980s, when the nuclear submarine industry could not build the size of the "Ohio" class. The diameter of the hull and the Chinese navy’s ability to control the sea at that time was very limited. Strategic nuclear submarines could not be deployed in deep waters and could only operate in shallow coastal waters. The tonnage was too large to be suitable. The Chinese Navy could not close this gap in the short or medium term, but it would Make every effort to bridge the gap with the US nuclear submarine. The experience and lessons of the 092 nuclear submarine have been applied to the 094 nuclear submarine, and the experience and lessons of the 094 nuclear submarine will also be applied to the 096 ballistic missile nuclear submarine and the 096 ballistic missile. The nuclear submarine is named the "Tang" class in the West. The US Naval Intelligence Office believes that the submarine has 24 missile launch tubes, and the shape and structure are similar to the 094 class nuclear submarine.But it's quieter. After the 096 strategic nuclear submarine is fully equipped with combat capabilities, China is at the apex of its secondary nuclear counterattack capability, which greatly improves China’s nuclear strike capability, which may have an important impact on the United States’ diplomatic game.
The scale of China's ballistic nuclear submarine
All Chinese attack nuclear submarines and ballistic missile nuclear submarines are built by Bohai Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd. in Huludao, and each Type 094 strategic nuclear submarine costs approximately US$3 billion , Accounting for 2% of the 2010 national defense budget. In 2008, China’s national defense budget was 60 billion U.S. dollars, increased to 70.4 billion U.S. dollars in 2009, and increased to 77.95 billion U.S. dollars in 2010. China’s defense budget will continue to grow rapidly in the next ten years. Enough to support China’s construction of 6 Type 094 strategic nuclear submarines. In 1997, the US Naval Intelligence Agency estimated that the first Type 094 ballistic missile nuclear submarine would be built in 2005, and it was estimated that 3 ships would be built by 2010. In fact, it was completed in 2003. It was completed and launched in July 2004. In 2010, two Type 094 nuclear submarines entered service. Two of them are still under construction. "Class ballistic missile nuclear submarine has an advantage in number, each equipped with 24 "Trident" type 2 ballistic missiles, each can carry 8 sub-guided nuclear warheads, the total number of nuclear warheads reaches 192, and a new generation of "Colombia" class The strategic nuclear submarine is scheduled to enter service in 2031. The original 9 "Delta" class I/IV strategic nuclear submarines of the Russian Navy are gradually replaced by a new generation of strategic nuclear submarines "". The US military requires 4 ships at any time. Strategic nuclear submarines are on duty in the depths of the ocean at any time. The number of strategic nuclear submarines in Britain, France and Russia is small. It only requires that one strategic nuclear submarine is on duty at any time. Since the Class 092 ballistic missile nuclear submarine has never been on duty on combat readiness, the US military has a strategy for China. The validity of the number of nuclear submarines is skeptical.
In 2010, when the U.S. Naval Intelligence Agency discussed the number of China’s strategic nuclear submarines in the future, it thought that Bohai Shipyard ’s new giant plant was 290 meters long and more than 130 meters wide and could be assembled at the same time 4- Five nuclear submarine nuclear submarines, which means that the construction of six ballistic missile nuclear submarines by 2020 is completely within the capabilities of the shipbuilding industry. Therefore, the US Naval Intelligence Agency forecasts based on cost, logistics support, defense expenditure, construction capabilities, and personnel/training In view of the number of China's ballistic missile nuclear submarines in the future, it is predicted that there are four possibilities. The first one may be four Type 094 nuclear submarines (based on procurement trends and Western conventional thinking). If China has four Type 094 nuclear submarines. Each ship can carry 12 "Julang"-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, which can carry 12 to 96 sub-warheads, and 4 Type 094 nuclear submarines can carry up to 384 sub-warheads, which can provide China with a reliable nuclear deterrent capability.
However, Type 094 nuclear submarines are noisy. Under the rigorous anti-submarine system of the United States, it is difficult to go out of the Pacific for combat readiness patrols. They can only operate in the coastal waters under the protection of the air force and surface warships. The water depth is only 18 meters, which is not suitable for nuclear submarine combat readiness patrols. The average depth of the Yellow Sea is 44 meters, and the East China Sea is less than 100 meters deep. The exposure rate of strategic nuclear submarines in these sea areas for combat readiness patrols will increase significantly. The survival rate is very high under the threat of more than 60 US attack nuclear submarines. It is difficult to guarantee that China’s strategic nuclear submarines may be deployed in the seas with strong defense forces in a “bass” approach, but this deployment method can only hit Guam, Hawaii and Alaska. If they want to hit the west coastline of the United States, they will be forced to leave China’s land-based The protection of the air force and surface warships sailed into the high seas. Without the protection of the air force and navy, they were easily discovered and destroyed by the US anti-submarine forces. Therefore, the 4 Type 094 strategic nuclear submarines are just China's desire to deter US forces in the Western Pacific theater.
The second possibility is that the Type 094 nuclear submarine is a test platform for the Type 096 nuclear submarine.China will build only two Type 094 nuclear submarines and another four Type 096 nuclear submarines. The Type 096 nuclear submarines are less noisy, more concealed, and have a much lower chance of being detected. They can be deployed in the open Pacific Ocean without protection. , A Type 096 ballistic nuclear submarine carries 24 "Julang"-3 type submarine-launched ballistic missiles with a range of about 11,000 kilometers, which will be more lethal than the Type 094 nuclear submarine, but this may require more expenditure. Design , The cost of building and maintaining ballistic missile nuclear submarines is also huge. The cost of the 096 nuclear submarine may reach 4 to 5 billion U.S. dollars, and each requires 100 to 120 crew members (or 2 sets of crew members for each submarine as in the United States) and Hundreds of thousands of shore maintenance personnel, 6 strategic nuclear submarines need about thousands of outstanding crew and tens of thousands of shore technicians, if the 094 nuclear submarine each is 3 billion US dollars, the 096 nuclear submarine is 5 billion US dollars each, So it will cost 30 to 36 billion U.S. dollars by 2020
The third possibility is that the Chinese Navy intends to be evenly matched with the U.S. Navy by deploying 4 Type 094 ballistic nuclear submarines and 8 Type 096 ballistic nuclear submarines. A combination of "bastion" deployment and open sea deployment can be used to bring the United States into the strike range, but this may require more command and more personnel, and cost 38 to 46 billion US dollars, if China wants to be in 2020 To achieve this scale, it is necessary to ensure the speed of building 1 ship at 1.25. This is a bit difficult for the shipyard’s construction capacity. Considering the cost and construction capacity, the first one may be the most likely, and the second one may consume the most resources. However, there are enough ballistic nuclear submarines to perform continuous deterrence patrols, and the combat capability has been significantly improved. The third one may seem unlikely. The scale of China's strategic nuclear submarines may expand, but they will not be evenly matched with the US Navy for the time being, but they will eventually be supported. 10 ships are still possible.
3: The U.S. Navy’s dilemma
But China is at a geographical disadvantage, the Bohai Sea is too small and shallow, and the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea are used by the United States and Japan. from span7span,Via the Japanese archipelago, Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan Island, Philippine Islands, to Indonesia Islands to construct an arc-shaped blockade. The Chinese nuclear submarine must be quiet enough to escape its surveillance and enter the Pacific Ocean. The South China Sea is deep and vast. , But the distance to the United States is too far. The Sanya base is 11,000 kilometers from the west coast of the United States, 13,500 kilometers from New York or Boston, and 15,000 kilometers from the east coast of Florida. The "Julang"-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile has a single warhead range. Above 8,000 kilometers, the performance is between the US "Trident" IC4 and "Trident" IID5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The United States' Trident I-D5 ballistic missile has a maximum range of 12,000 kilometers when carrying a single warhead. France The M51 submarine-launched ballistic missile has a range of 8000-13000 kilometers, and its overall performance is the worst among the five nuclear powers. The problem of "death" is that the United States, Russia, Britain, France and other countries have open coasts, and nuclear submarines can easily enter the deep sea. The lack of range of the submarine-launched missiles can only make the Type 094 strategic nuclear submarine have to go out to the Central Pacific Ocean at a long distance to reach the United States. The risk during the crossing is very large, and the current Chinese Navy is not enough. If the Pacific Ocean escorts it, it can only be deployed in the "fortress area". The "Julang"-3 submarine-launched strategic missile has a maximum range of 12,000 kilometers. It can reach most of the United States from to Bohai Bay, Liu Huaqing, Gorshkov, commander of the Soviet Navy,’s "fort zone" strategy will be greatly appreciated. He plans to build a "bastion zone" for "underwater" submarines in Huludao. The Bohai Bay is shallow and difficult for US attack nuclear submarines to enter.
but the times are different,The United States may use the unmanned submarine to enter the Bohai Bay to hunt ballistic missile nuclear submarines, and it can also deploy the ballistic missile defense system in Japan to intercept submarine-launched ballistic missiles launched from the Bohai Sea and still in the boost phase. In 2006, China built a nuclear submarine base east of the Yulin base on Hainan Island. Nuclear submarines can directly enter the deep-water patrol area of the South China Sea. If necessary, they will go out of the Pacific Ocean or approach the Indian Ocean through the Philippine waterways. China will also use the Yellow Sea as a fortress area, and the Yellow Sea is shallow. Coupled with the high navigable density and harsh underwater acoustic environment, which seriously affects the maneuverability and anti-submarine effectiveness of American submarines, China has a strong shore-based defense system in the Yellow Sea and a land air force base that can reach the combat airspace in a short time. , It can completely suppress the US naval and air anti-submarine aircraft that have no land base nearby.
If China only has 4 ballistic nuclear submarines, then it can only send 1 to 2 ballistic nuclear submarines to perform strategic patrol missions. The U.S. Navy only needs 5 to 10 offensive nuclear submarines to ensure the ballistic nuclear submarine. Surveillance off the base and continuous tracking of ballistic nuclear submarines after they go to sea. If China has six ballistic nuclear submarines, then it is possible to keep four of them in deployment state and two under repair. The U.S. Navy must keep an eye on these four ballistic nuclear submarines at all times. It needs 20 attack nuclear submarines, which accounts for half of the current number of attack nuclear submarines in the US Navy. If China has 10 ballistic nuclear submarines, the US Navy's attack nuclear submarines will suffer from resource shortages. The focus of the mission must be adjusted. If China Stationed at two bases about 1,600 nautical miles apart with ballistic nuclear submarines, the U.S. anti-submarine forces were unable to concentrate their forces to contain more anti-submarine defense effectiveness. Greenland One Iceland-the British gap" can enter the range against the United States. The United States' strategy is to deploy fixed passive underwater acoustic arrays, submarines and shore-based anti-submarine aircraft barriers to Soviet ballistic missile nuclear submarines in these geographic throats. Traverse,If there is a conflict between China and the United States before 2010, as long as the United States has sufficient anti-submarine forces, the United States can also use the same strategy to block the Chinese ballistic missile nuclear submarine within the first island chain. The Chinese ballistic missile nuclear submarine will be attacked by the United States as soon as it leaves the port. Nuclear submarines and aviation anti-submarine aircraft were hunted and killed, and they had to be withdrawn. However, there is no use in 2020. In the face of the powerful Chinese navy and air force, it is difficult for the U.S. navy and air force to enter the South China Sea and China’s offshore waters. The U.S. Navy can only invest in the attack type. Nuclear submarines, according to the 2019 China Military Power Report issued by the United States, China now has 6 094 ballistic missile nuclear submarines, which means that the US Navy does not have enough anti-submarine forces, and the number of US attack nuclear submarines is still doubled, which is quieter. Under the close watch of China's diesel-powered submarines, 056 frigates and anti-submarine aircraft, it is not enough.
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