The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the European crisis, and Germany and France can no longer bear it
As the end of 2022 approaches, the separation and crisis shown by the world are becoming increasingly serious.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to heat up, unprecedented war panic is spreading on the European continent. In the context of high inflation and the energy crisis, European residents are generally pessimistic about the development of the situation. In October, more and more voices of concern about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict turning into a war in Europe began to emerge, and European countries, especially Western European countries, began to evaluate their ability to withstand war.
When EU 's main military force, Western European countries evaluated their combat power, the results were very unoptimistic.
, Germany, which has always been the leader in Europe's economy, still has the problem of poor equipment and poor personnel training. In the current military service contract, the volunteer soldier contract period is 12 to 24 months, but soldiers can choose to retire from active service after six months of service. In many technical military positions, the German military service system allows soldiers to retire from active service just after they have mastered their professional skills and are not yet proficient. This has led to the overall training level of the Federal Defense Forces that has always had great problems since the implementation of the new military service system in the early 1910s.
plus the bureaucratic problems and equipment maintenance problems within the German army, the German army's heavy equipment proper rate has always been maintained at a very low level. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, these personnel and equipment problems not only did not improve, but new declines also occurred. According to statistics from Germany's World Youth Daily in September, after the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the number of objectors in the Federal Defense Forces has tripled compared with before the war. The last time the German army experienced such large-scale objection to military service was during the Gulf War in 1990 and 1991. In a report on the Bundestag in early October,
directly disclosed that after the Federal Defense Forces supported Ukraine, the remaining ammunition database, the stock of the remaining ammunition database was only enough for the army to fight for two days. This means that once war begins in full swing, German Bundesliga will finish stockings of ammunition in the first week and lose combat effectiveness.
However, as a defeated country in , Germany has always maintained considerable caution in the military. These military issues may not be a big deal for Germany. But in France, which considers itself to be the leader of the EU and protector of the continent, similar problems are much more serious.
The French army is not even able to protect the country. In a report on October 15, French TV 2 disclosed that under the shadow of the Ukrainian conflict, Europe may face an unprecedented war, but the French army does not have the ability to protect the country. The information quoted by the program
comes from the speech of Macron . According to Macron, the current French ground troops, , has about 100,000, of which only 25,000 can be quickly invested in battle. These troops are only enough to control 83 kilometers of front lines or protect settlements of millions of people.
These data may be the content of the report to Macron after the French military department conducted theoretical calculations. Macron also admitted that these numbers have theoretical properties. When war really starts, reserve personnel and gendarmerie will also be mobilized. However, Macron also emphasized that these reserve military personnel are more fragile than regular troops and cannot exert the combat effectiveness of regular troops.
Macron therefore called on the international community to understand that he could not fully support Ukraine because he had to "save some money for his country" so that France could protect itself.
However, his current support for Ukraine has also caused domestic defense pressure and concerns. The French army's equipment is not large. Just supporting 18 "Caiser" self-propelled artillery to Ukraine has reduced the inventory of this type of weapon in the French army sequence by one quarter.
Former General Christopher Gomar, director of the French Military Intelligence Agency, commented directly: "The Russians destroyed a large number of Ukrainian tanks and . I don't know how many, maybe there are a thousand. The French army has only 220, and we will lose them in the first few weeks of the war."
Former French Defense Minister Everett Moran also directly pointed out that the French army should avoid such high-intensity wars and use nuclear deterrence forces and countries like the United States to join.
This is a pertinent statement. In today's European conflicts broke out, France cannot protect European security at all. With the United States' "energy kidnapping", more control over Europe has begun to be transferred to the United States, and the responsibility for protecting Europe has also been pushed to the United States.
France is one of the most intense countries in the wave of European conflicts. France has vigorously developed nuclear power in the past few decades to reduce its dependence on energy, but it still cannot escape this wave of large inflation across Europe. in Le Monde in October In a report on the 17th, the union of the Gravolinne Nuclear Power Plant, France's largest nuclear power plant, has launched a strike to protest the high inflation environment and demand the government increase wages.
The union has stated that it will not stop the strike until the demand for a salary increase is met. The strike has caused a decline in power generation, and other nuclear power plants in France are also responding to the strike of the Gravolinne Nuclear Power Plant union. A major strike at the power level is brewing. .
plus zero strikes in other industries, France's own low dependence on energy has disappeared. Social unrest and lack of military power have made France unable to maintain European security at all. In this situation, France can only expect the United States to protect Europe.
The United States has made too many enemies, and it will definitely be defeated when it starts a war against China, Russia and Iraq at the same time. Can the United States protect it while making a large profit of European energy price difference and seizing control of Europe? What about protecting Europe's security?
The answer is no.
If the United States only opens one front in Europe, then this will be the ending of a father, kind and filial son, who regained Europe, but the United States has not only opened one front in Europe.
While escalating the conflict with Russia, the United States has also been doing this year Tensions with China, Iran, and other countries are constantly heating up. In many incidents, the United States has reached the brink of war.
synchronously intensified multiple contradictions may be caused by the internal political struggle of the United States, which is helpful for the power struggle of decision-makers and the diverting attention of domestic residents' economic difficulties. However, the US government does not seem to be fully prepared for how to deal with the global contradictions caused by the United States.
There have been many voices in the United States accusing the government of intensifying conflicts on multiple lines, believing that the United States cannot win in confrontation with many countries, but these voices from society are difficult to affect the arbitrary position of the US decision-making level.
Bloomberg published an op-education on October 17, pointing out that the United States cannot win after the war against Russia, China, and Iran at the same time. Starting war with multiple countries will lead the United States to failure.
article believes that the Ukrainian issue, the Taiwan Strait issue and the Middle East conflict may develop into a global war with the intervention of the United States, and the United States must choose a priority direction for itself. Because when the United States faces such an overloaded task, the government cannot guarantee that it will not affect its ability to solve other problems when it deals with one of them.
is explained in Chinese context, that is, The United States divides too many troops, which may lead to the withdrawal of forces to affect the operations of other battlefields when fighting with a certain country, resulting in the United States falling into a disadvantage in other battlefields in order to gain an advantage in a certain battlefield. What the article
wants to express is that multi-line combat requires too strict national management system, and even if the United States can meet the needs of multi-line combat, the national management system cannot keep up, so the United States cannot win while starting a war on multiple lines.
This kind of advice will obviously not be valued by the top American leaders, but the US decision-making level is not all fools. They can obviously realize the disadvantages of multi-line combat. Therefore, while the Russian-Ukrainian issue is constantly delayed, the United States has begun to tend to provoke various marginal events and stir up trouble in the international diplomatic community.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is very wide, and the internal conflicts of G20 are constantly
The late G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting statement is the best manifestation of the recent US disruption. The summary statement of the Finance Ministers' Meeting should have been released within a few hours after the meeting ended, but the total statement of the G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting was delayed for three days after the meeting ended on October 14. The reason given by the G20 was "divergences over the Russian-Ukrainian conflict", but there is no need to say more about who is using the dispute to mess up the water.
G20 is an international organization with the participation of both Western groups, non-aligned countries like China and India, and Russia. The basic policy of the United States in such multi-partner organizational meetings in the second half of the year is to turn the meeting into a meeting of accusations against Russia, and use endless accusations to hinder the nature of the meeting itself from the cooperation.
Through this method, the United States can greatly delay the international community's discussion of multiple conflict points that the United States participates in, and avoid the international community's participation in the progress of these conflicts, so that these conflicts can remain in the state expected by the United States under the US plan, which is the current state of non-confrontation.
In short, after taking advantage of the political dividends of provoking conflict, the United States does not want to start a war, but does not want to show weakness and retreat, so it plans to fight and watch the conflict between Russia and Ukraine while maintaining pressure on other fronts.
But no matter how you drag it out, public opinion can be stopped, but the economic pace cannot be dragged out all the time. The United States' strategy of delaying economic rebate in 2021 has shown great consequences. Now, in the context of global inflation and energy crisis, conflicts cannot be delayed, and the time it takes to gain from international disruption is very limited.
Europe cannot last long under the current economic environment. In the event of an economic stagnation or an economic crisis that may arise economic crisis triggers war in Europe, the United States, a country that has gained control of Europe, also has an obligation to protect European countries.
As Bloomberg article said, the United States must choose a priority for itself and at the same time stabilize other countries that have conflicts with the United States. Otherwise, the conflict will expand very quickly in the deepening environment of the crisis. Not only the United States has the need to divert the attention of the people, but now it is in various countries around the world that live a hard life.
does not make a decision quickly, and what is waiting for the United States is only multi-line wars and failures.
