The picture shows the "nine-in-one" election campaign building
Bay "nine-in-one" election The ticket issuance starts at 4 pm on November 26th. In less than two hours, the general trend of the election was settled and the Kuomintang won a great victory. The Kuomintang can win the lowest four capitals among the six capitals, including Taipei, New Taipei , Taoyuan, Taichung . Judging from the DPP’s invoices in North Taiwan, it was almost wiped out. In fact, this is similar to the expectations before the outside world. Tsai Ing-wen was already like an ant on a hot pan, very anxious. The day before the vote, the DPP was still playing the so-called "anti-China and Taiwan protection" card, announcing that Taiwan universities all over Taiwan were banning the use of mainland-branded communication products. For the sake of election, the DPP's decoupling of the mainland has reached an unreasonable point and is full of troops. What impact will the results of the "nine-in-one" election in Taiwan have on cross-strait relations after the results of this "nine-in-one" election have been released? The DPP took advantage of the situation to expand the ban on mainland products to Taiwanese universities, and was determined to decouple? Can Taiwan’s economic development have a way out if it loses the mainland market?
Regarding the above three issues, I will start with the "nine-in-one" election to deeply analyze the living space of "Taiwan independence" and the subsequent direction of cross-strait relations.
The most popular election for this year's "nine-in-one" election is the election situation of the 22 counties and cities, because this means that the blue and green territory will undergo major changes, and will even have a certain impact on the 2024 election. Judging from the candidates, there are 95 people in the positions of mayors in 22 counties and cities. The Kuomintang, Democratic Progressive Party, , People's Party, and some non-party members will participate, but the dispute between the Kuomintang and the DPP is still the main theme of the election.
OK. After basically understanding the situation of the "nine-in-one" election, if you want to deeply understand the impact of the "nine-in-one" election on cross-strait relations, you might as well give a like or pay attention first. At the same time, we are more willing to participate in the in-depth discussion of the topic of the article, put your insights on the public screen, communicate together, and make progress together.
The first question: What impact will the result of the nine-in-one election in Taiwan have on cross-strait relations?
The overall situation of the "nine-in-one" election results in Taiwan have been decided, and the DPP has been defeated. So what impact will this have on cross-strait relations?
The picture shows Tsai Ing-wen
The DPP is unlikely to adjust cross-strait policies. The defeat in the "nine-in-one" election does not mean that the DPP will adjust its cross-strait policy, because based on the situation in 2018, the DPP only won 6 seats at that time, but the total vote rate in Taiwan was still close to 40%, which shows that the most essential problem is that the basic foundation of the "green camp" is very stable and there will be no complete collapse. As a "Taiwan independence" party, the DPP will not change its "Taiwan independence" essence as the "Nine-in-One" election situation changes. Therefore, it is not realistic to expect the DPP to make significant adjustments to cross-strait policies after losing the election of local county and city mayors.
The Taiwan authorities' cross-strait policies are deeply affected by the United States, and cross-strait relations are unlikely to ease. The Biden administration's "using Taiwan to control China" strategy is pressing step by step, especially since this year, it has been constantly using "spreading Taiwan cards" and "arms sales cards" to develop relations with Taiwan. The DPP also shouted the so-called cross-strait policy of "maintaining the status quo", and secretly colluding with the United States to implement "Taiwan independence" measures. In the context of the great power game and the US Indo-Pacific Strategy encircling mainland China, even if the "nine-in-one" election is defeated, it will not impact the DPP authorities' strategic thinking of "using the United States to seek independence".
The dominance of cross-strait relations is in the hands of the mainland. No matter what changes occur in the political arena on the island, it will not shake our determination to unify. The situation in the Taiwan Strait has changed a lot in the past 10 years. As the mainland's power continues to grow, we now have an absolute advantage over Taiwan. At present, our anti-"independence" promotion of unification is constantly increasing, and we are solidly promoting the process of unification. Moreover, with the mainland's current economic, military, and political strength, we are fully capable of leading the direction and development of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and will not let an election in Taiwan lead the nose.
The second question: The DPP took advantage of the situation to expand the ban on mainland products to Taiwanese universities, and is determined to decouple?
The DPP’s election situation is not good, taking advantage of the situation to play the “anti-China and Taiwan protection” card and expanding the ban on mainland products to Taiwanese universities. Is it because it is determined to decouple?
The DPP seeks the political goal of "Taiwan independence", so it has to engage in hard decoupling. The Taiwan authorities used administrative means to hinder cross-strait economic cooperation and announced that Taiwanese universities banned mainland branded communication products, which is to create a "chilling effect" to prevent compatriots from communicating and learning from each other. The DPP spared no effort to destroy cross-strait economic exchanges because it was fear that Taiwanese compatriots learned about a real mainland through communication products in order to serve its "Taiwan independence" purpose.
The DPP decoupled the mainland in order to "reject unification". The Taiwan authorities announced that universities across Taiwan will prohibit the use of mainland branded communication products and services. This approach is to regard mainland enterprises and mainland capital as a disaster. Previously, the twists and turns of iQiyi , as well as Taobao, Tencent , Douyin were subject to various censorship and punishment by the DPP. This shows that the DPP authorities are willing to take the interests and welfare of Taiwan's comrades at the cost of their interests and well-being, and then want to weaken the cross-strait economic and trade links in order to "reject the unification."
The picture shows people on the island protesting
The DPP is also "relying on the United States to resist the mainland." The Taiwan authorities want to take the blame from the "competition" between China and the United States, which is why they promote the "decoupling" of the cross-strait economy. They do not hesitate to cooperate with the United States and attempt to cut off the industrial chain, and supply chain on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Now a large number of employees of TSMC have moved their families to the United States, which is a living case. The DPP even ignored the health of the people on the island and forcibly opened up the "American Pig" containing clenbuterol and "American Cattle" in exchange for support from the international community and increase the bargaining chips against the mainland.
The third question: Can Taiwan’s economic development have a way out if it loses the mainland market?
Taiwan authorities advocate decoupling from the mainland. So once the mainland market is lost, can Taiwan’s economic development have a way out?
First of all, Taiwan’s economy is heavily dependent on the mainland. According to the data in 2021, the total import and export volume of Taiwan and the mainland is US$328.3 billion, accounting for 42% of Taiwan's GDP. The surplus of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is more than US$170 billion, and the trade surplus accounts for 22% of Taiwan's GDP. Therefore, if there is no mainland's economic market, Taiwan's economy will be much less competitive.
The picture shows some fruits in Taiwan
Secondly, most of the products imported from mainland China are not essential products. Last year, the proportion of some fresh products exported to the mainland in Taiwan was, such as citrus fruits accounted for 86%, frozen horse mackerel accounted for 50%, and leucorrhea was as high as 100%. These products are not only produced in many regions of the mainland, but even if they are to be imported, we can also import them from Southeast Asian countries. So if we don’t buy them, it will be difficult for Taiwan to find new buyers.
Finally, Taiwan Island is an isolated island with scarce resources. After Pelosi entered Taiwan, the mainland has taken a series of countermeasures against Taiwan, including suspending the export of natural sand . More than 90% of the natural sand imports in Taiwan come from the mainland. This scarcity of resources will have a great impact on the sand and gravel industry, construction industry and even the economic development of the entire Taiwan region.
To sum up, cross-strait relations are still moving forward in a bumpy state, and it may also be that the DPP’s more unreasonable behavior has made cross-strait relations more complex and sharp. The Taiwan authorities are in a bigger dilemma of "using the United States to seek independence". Now the current situation is not on the side of "Taiwan independence", but on the call for unification and the mainland. Therefore, in the long run, the mainland only needs to maintain strategic determination, and the bargaining chips for "Taiwan independence" will only decrease and fewer bargaining chips.
Author: Xiao Ming
This article only represents the author's views and has nothing to do with the position of this account
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