This year, some people are beginning to worry that in winter, they will not be able to use natural gas, and electricity will become tense.
On the 22nd, the National Standing Committee held a meeting and stated that more market-oriented methods should be used to stabilize commodity prices and ensure the supply of electricity and natural gas in winter.
Why do countries often worry about the supply of electricity and natural gas in winter?
Since the beginning of this year, natural gas has risen to the sky, and the winter that requires a lot of natural gas has not yet arrived. Some places have begun to lack power. How to solve this energy crisis?
In the UK, soaring natural gas prices have triggered a supply crisis.
The wholesale price of natural gas in the UK has risen by 250% since January this year, and the increase has been even sharper since August, with a 70% increase.
Why did the price of natural gas soar? There are several reasons:
First, the global economic restart after the epidemic pushed up the demand for natural gas.
Second, the impact of abnormal weather. Over the past few months, unusually cold winters and unusually hot summers in most parts of Asia and Europe have greatly increased people's electricity demand and demand for coal and natural gas.
Third, last year was particularly cold winter, Europe consumed more natural gas reserves than usual, and this summer reserves were not replenished in time. The flow of Russian natural gas into Europe is declining,Make the already tight market even more tense.
Beginning in August, several small-scale energy companies in the UK have already “run off”.
Why do these suppliers run away? The UK imposes a price limit on retail energy prices, and many energy companies have asked the government to increase the ceiling price, but they have been rejected.
The cost has increased, the selling price has not risen, and the income cannot make ends meet. These energy companies can only quit. This has caused more than 1.5 million households to find new energy companies.
Natural gas is very important to the UK. There are now more than 22 million households using natural gas in the UK, accounting for 85% of the total number of households in the UK.
At present, 38% of the natural gas demand in the UK is used for domestic heating, 29% is used for power generation, and 11% is used for industrial and commercial purposes.
It’s not just the UK, but the European gas prices have soared. European natural gas reserves are 16% lower than the 5-year average, and its September natural gas reserves hit a record low.
The United States, as an important supply of natural gas in Europe, was affected by Hurricane Ida in early September. Natural gas production fell sharply, and natural gas futures prices have been at their highest level in more than seven years.
The lack of natural gas directly leads to a sharp increase in electricity prices. For example, in the United Kingdom, nearly half of its electricity relies on natural gas, and high gas prices have driven electricity prices to take off.
In September this year, the price of electricity in the UK was almost 7 times that of the same period last year.
Goldman Sachs predicted in the latest research report that the tight supply and demand of natural gas in Europe is expected to intensify in the next few months.The entire Europe will face the risk of power outages.
Due to the lack of natural gas, the parties began to quarrel.
Nearly half of the natural gas imported by European countries comes from Russia. Now that the price of natural gas has skyrocketed, Russia has become a target for some people.
Recently, 40 members of the European Parliament asked the EU to investigate Gazprom , believing that the company’s actions made them suspect that the company was suspected of manipulating the market to push up natural gas prices.
International Energy Agency also intervened in this dispute, calling on Russia to send more natural gas to Europe to help alleviate the energy crisis.
Americans have also blended in. The State Council’s senior energy security adviser said that Russia should increase its supply of natural gas to Europe through Ukraine as soon as possible, because some EU countries may not have enough reserves to cope with the coming cold winter.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov recently responded: Russia has fulfilled all its obligations to consumers in the EU market, and said that Russia's natural gas supply to Europe is close to the highest level in history.
Will China run out of gas? Will there be power shortages?
China is a country with high natural gas imports. The price of natural gas in China, especially the price of LNG, is greatly affected by international prices. International natural gas prices have risen sharply, and domestic natural gas prices have also risen accordingly.
Domestic natural gas prices have skyrocketed since May.Data show that on May 6, the national index of China's LNG ex-factory price was 3292 yuan/ton, and on September 17, the index rose to 6117 yuan/ton, an increase of 86%.
At present, the rise in global natural gas prices has not yet ended, and the impact on domestic natural gas prices is still far-reaching.
Which listed companies will benefit?
However, everyone should not worry too much about domestic natural gas.
Russia’s attitude towards China and Europe on natural gas exports is obviously different. Not only has it not reduced its natural gas exports to China, it has also increased to a certain extent.
Reuters reported that the Russian government announced that the amount of natural gas exported to China in the second half of this year will continue to grow according to actual conditions, increasing by at least 50%.
Although domestic natural gas supply is not tight, electricity is also tight.
Most of China's electricity comes from coal, but due to various reasons, domestic coal production is increasingly difficult to keep up.
Domestic coal supply is insufficient and coal prices are soaring, forcing the country to increase coal imports. However, there are also problems with coal production elsewhere—for example, heavy rains and staff shortages in Indonesia, railway disruptions in Russia, and unrest in South Africa.
Another important source of power generation in China is hydropower. However, due to drought in key areas across the country, hydropower has failed to grow this year.
According to industry insiders, some power plants lose more money as they generate electricity, and many power plants are unwilling to sell electricity at a loss, which also widens the power supply gap.
power cuts and production suspension are sweeping at least 10 provinces including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangxi, Yunnan, etc.
Hunan and Guangdong have a large power gap, and local companies need to use peak-shift power as required. The largest power gap in Hunan may exceed 30%!
On September 23, the power supply gap in Shenzhen reached 2.8 million kilowatts, and companies that received the notice were required to alternate peak power consumption every Monday, March, Friday, or February, 46th.
Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, a number of listed companies announced power cuts and shutdowns. On the evening of September 22, a number of A-share listed companies Miyouji issued announcements on power cuts and shutdowns.
Obviously, the market is following this script: lack of coal -> lack of electricity -> power cut (dual control of energy consumption) -> industrial product production is blocked -> supply is reduced -> prices are rising.
When will this power shortage problem be resolved? Let's go and see.
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