: Overseas network
Ambulances lined up outside the British shelter hospital. (Reuters)
Overseas Network, January 5, During the holidays, the new crown mutation virus caused a sharp increase in the number of infections in the UK, making the hospitals of the British National Medical System unable to handle patients. A new analysis suggests that this more spreadable variant of the virus could cause hundreds of deaths per 10,000 patients.
According to news from "Business Insider" on the 4th, a preliminary study released by Imperial College London last week found that the new coronavirus variant known as B.1.1.7 has a stronger transmission capacity, which intensified the previous concerns of the British government . This new study has not been peer-reviewed, but the author wrote: “All analyses agree that the new variant has a great spread advantage.” The study shows that B.1.1.7 can make the existing R value (the rate of virus reproduction) ) Increase from 0.4 to 0.7. The R value must fall below 1 to reduce the number of newly confirmed cases. The current estimated R value in the UK is between 1.1 and 1.3. Now, the cases caused by the mutant virus constitute the vast majority of all new crown cases in the UK.
reported that compared with the old strain, the new variant strain may have a higher lethality. Currently, for any individual patient, B.1.1.7 is not more lethal than the virus initially observed. But epidemiologists warn that because it infects more people, the total number of deaths it will cause may be much higher than the earlier variants. Associate Professor Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine explained that in the period when the R value is 1.1, if the virus exceeds 50%, there will be 198 deaths for every 10,000 infections one month later; however, if The transmission rate of the new coronavirus mutation has increased by 50%, and there will be 978 new deaths for every 10,000 infections in the same period. He pointed out, "The key message is: the effect of the increase in the number of cases caused by the spread of the virus index is far greater than the increase in the number of cases caused by the proportional transmission." The
report pointed out that despite the restrictions, the new mutations The spread of the virus remains severe. The authors of this new study at Imperial College London pointed out that although the government has implemented three- and four-level restrictions in England, the number of cases caused by the new mutation is continuing to increase. Axel Gandy, chairman of the Statistics Society of Imperial College London, said that the lockdown from November 2020 reduced the R value to 0.9, but these measures were ultimately not enough to curb the spread of the new mutant virus. In this case, non-essential shops are closed and people work from home if possible, but schools are still open. (Hou Xingchuan, Overseas Network)
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