On November 7, local time, mainstream American media reported that the Democratic presidential candidate Biden defeated the Republican presidential candidate Trump and won the election with 270 electoral votes. Since then, Biden changed his Twitter certification to "President-elect" and began preparations for the formation of a new government, including the establishment of a "transition website" and the announcement of a 13-member COVID-19 working group list. On the side of
, the current president and Republican presidential candidate Trump, he himself has not yet admitted defeat, and his legal team has continued to launch legal challenges in several key swing states in an attempt to reverse the results. But CNN and many other US media said that people around Trump, including his wife Melania, have begun to persuade him to accept this result.
The 2020 U.S. election is destined to be unusual: the spread of the new crown epidemic, racial discrimination, and social tearing are becoming more and more severe. Mail ballots have become the main voting method, the number of voters in the country has reached a record high, the results of the election are delayed and "difficult to give birth", and one party declares victory The election but the other side refused to admit...
Now, the US media predicts that Biden, who is about to turn 78, will enter the White House, and he himself promised to "cure America" in his victory speech on the evening of the 7th. However, the result of the US media's prejudgment is not yet regarded as an "official announcement." The official result has to wait for the state electoral college to vote on December 14 and the Congress to count the electoral votes on January 6 of the following year. Announce the winner.
Looking back at this general election, why did Biden frequently "turn blue" key states? What is the special significance of this election to the United States? A reporter from the Beijing News interviewed Yang Xiyu, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, and listened to his interpretation of the "victory and defeat" in the 2020 election in the United States and the impact of this election on the future direction of the United States.
Why is Trump behind?
Beijing News: The US media have predicted that Biden will win the election. Why do you think Trump lags behind Biden in the number of votes?
Yang Xiyu: I think Trump is currently behind for two reasons: policy reasons and technical reasons. The main reason for the
policy is poor response to the epidemic, which has greatly affected his election. In fact, American voters are most concerned about two issues this year-the economy and the epidemic. Economically, although the overall economic situation is not very good, most people believe that his economic policies and economic execution will be better than Biden. However, on the issue of the epidemic, everyone believed that he was not doing well. Many scientists issued a joint open letter accusing him of ineffective response to the epidemic, which caused him to lose a lot of votes. Many voters were not very opposed to Trump, but the outbreak in the United States changed their voting decisions. The technical reason of
refers to the voting method of this year's mailed ballots. What makes this year's general election very different from previous years is that the percentage of votes sent by mail is very high. The high proportion of mailed votes has caused a significant increase in voters who voted-this year's turnout rate is also the highest in more than 100 years. However, the increased number of voters, especially the incremental part of the mailed ballots, is mostly the lower-middle class and the poor in society, and their political orientation is generally inclined to the Democratic Party. These groups have not been willing to vote in the past, but in addition to the Democratic Party’s repeated mobilization to vote during the campaign, the process of mailing ballots to allow them to vote has also been much easier. They don't have to go all the way to line up to vote. The government sends the ballots directly to them. They only need to fill it out and send it back in the envelope given by the government. They don't even need to stick the stamps themselves. So we see that as the counting of votes continues and mailed ballots flood in, more and more cases of Biden flipping.
Why does Biden lead?
Beijing News: From Biden’s perspective, why did he get 270 electoral votes first?
Yang Xiyu: In this year's situation, the reason for Biden's current "victory" is precisely the reason for Trump's "defeat". One is the epidemic. Trump's improper policies and ineffective fight against the epidemic have added favorable factors to Biden's presidential campaign. Therefore, Biden has always emphasized the issue of the epidemic during the campaign, promising that he will fight the epidemic seriously and find a solution instead of shirking responsibility and downplaying the severity of the epidemic like Trump. The second aspect of
is also to mail ballots. This method of counting votes is more beneficial to the Democratic Party. In fact, before the election day, the offensive and defensive battle between Biden and Trump regarding mailing votes began. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that mailing votes is illegal and will lead to fraud. Biden insists that mailing votes is legal. After the vote, Biden has always called on everyone to be patient and calculate everyOne ballot. What does it reflect that both
both broke the record?
Beijing News: In this year's general election, both Biden and Trump won a record-breaking more than 70 million votes. What does it mean?
Yang Xiyu: This actually reflects that both Biden and Trump are supported by many people. Biden is the presidential candidate or victor with the most popular votes in American history. Although Trump lost the election, his number of votes was also record-breaking, second only to Biden. This aspect of
reflects that the United States has a record high voter turnout in this year's general election, with a total of 150 million votes, while its total population is only about 320 million. On the other hand, this reflects that both of them have extensive and deep support. Both have more than 70 million votes. Biden has more than 75 million and Trump has more than 71 million, both of which are higher than Obama's previous record (more than 68 million votes).
In fact, this also means that the United States' vote for president this year is, in a sense, a choice for the future direction of the United States. Voters are not considering Trump or Biden personally, but their policy directions. To vote for Trump means to approve of the rich paying less taxes, the poor to receive fewer benefits, expanding gun rights, and combating illegal immigration, etc.; voting for Biden means approving the rich to pay more taxes and the poor to enjoy more social benefits. To ensure social justice, strictly control guns, and tolerate immigrants. The two are completely opposite on major public policy issues in the United States. Therefore, to vote for Trump is to hope that the country will develop in a more right and more conservative direction; to vote for Biden is to want to develop in a more left and more free direction.
At present, more people have chosen Biden, which means that more people have chosen the country to go left. But the people who voted for Trump are not very different, which in fact also reflects that American society is very polarized.
What challenges does Biden face if he comes to power?
Beijing News: If Biden successfully takes office, what challenges will he face?
Yang Xiyu: After Biden takes office, three questions must be resolved: one is how to cool down the internal strife and unite the supporters of the two factions, which is what Biden himself calls "cure America." If this problem cannot be resolved, it will be very difficult for Biden to govern. From Congress to the government, from politicians to the people, if this tear is maintained, it will be difficult for the United States to move forward. Therefore, for Biden, the end of the general election must bring this serious tearing to an end and strive to bridge the differences, at least to cool the dispute between the two factions and achieve national unity.
Two is a hard task, that is, how to effectively control the epidemic and put the US economic and social life on the right track as soon as possible. The epidemic is one of the main reasons why Biden was able to win the election, and it is also one of his main promises to voters, so he must do this as soon as possible. Because if he doesn't do well, it's not only him, but the Democrats will run very hard later. In addition, this issue is not a matter of political party interests, but a matter of national interest. If it is not resolved, American social and economic instability will increase.
Third is how to take a stable path and introduce policies that are acceptable to all parties under the conditions of fierce disputes between the left and the right and the differences among the leftists. At present, the competition between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party is very fierce, and the radical socialism and moderate liberalism within the Democratic Party are also very different. As a representative of moderate liberalism, Biden must take into account the interests of multiple aspects when governing. , So this is also a very big challenge.
On the whole, Biden will definitely focus his resources and energy on internal affairs in the initial stage. In diplomacy, Biden will carry out structural reforms to Trump’s diplomacy. The most important thing is to return to the path of multilateralism, such as rejoining the World Health Organization, the Paris Climate Convention, and the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, and amending Trump. China’s unilateralist policy; followed by rapid repair of relations with major allies.
What does the 2020 election mean to the United States?
Beijing News: How will this year's election affect the future direction of the United States?
Yang Xiyu: In my opinion, this election is a landmark event in American history. A few years later, when people look back at this election, they will make a conclusion about this election-this election is, in a sense, the choice of the country's development direction and national path. Specifically, whether the United States should follow the path of democratic liberalism or the path of Republican conservatism.
In fact, the struggle between American liberalism and conservatism is a long-termExist, but the opposition and differences between the two have never been so serious today. Nowadays, the political polarization in the United States has become very serious. It shows that the policy gap between the liberal Democratic Party and the conservative Republican Party is getting wider. The problem reflected is that the American people's needs and requirements for liberal or conservative policies are getting wider. In other words, the supporters of conservatism hope that the country will return to authentic Protestant religious politics and comply with the basic rules and moral beliefs of conservatism; but the supporters of liberalism, such as new immigrants, do not have the ideology of Protestants, and advocate The new American spirit follows the tradition of liberalism.
Therefore, this election is a choice between liberalism and conservatism, and a referendum on which direction the United States should take. That's why there is a situation of more than 70 million versus more than 70 million. This reflects the opposition between the American people in the policy direction and the opposition in the policy direction of the two party candidates.
From a deeper level, the United States is entering the third historical period of national transformation. Every seven to eighty years in the United States, there will be a revolution or change in national transformation. The first time was the Civil War. This was the choice of the United States to follow the path of agricultural modernization based on slavery or the path of industrial modernization based on free employment. The North won, so the United States took the latter path, which is private capitalism with free competition. The second time, after private monopoly capitalism developed to its limit, an unprecedented economic crisis broke out, which was the Great Depression from 1929 to 1933. During this period, the United States was forced to introduce Roosevelt's New Deal, which reformed the American national system from the institutional perspective. The United States moved from private monopoly capitalism to state monopoly capitalism. After that, the United States ushered in a golden period of development.
But now, state monopoly capitalism has reached its historical limit, and the US national system needs structural changes, which is the third period of transformation and transformation. But the current problem is that the current struggle between the two parties essentially represents the choice of the direction of the country's transformation. Whether it is Biden's liberalism or Trump's conservatism, the opposition and polarization between the two parties' supporters is very obvious.
Recently, there has been a question of whether a civil war will break out in the United States. I think that a military civil war will not break out, but the American political civil war has already begun. This election is a prelude to the American political civil war. Next, Biden's political and civil war will not end, because he faces a torn America, one that supports Trump and half supports him. Therefore, the third transformation of the United States will require several rounds of political struggles and political civil wars to resolve. The United States is now at a historic crossroads. Where it goes depends on the outcome of the US political and civil war for a period of time.
How will Sino-US relations change?
Beijing News: If Biden comes to power, what changes will it bring to Sino-US relations?
Yang Xiyu: I think there is an opportunity for positive interaction between China and the United States after Bi came on stage. This means that if China or the United States take the initiative to release some positive signals, there will be benign interaction between the two sides, which will stabilize the Sino-US relationship that has deteriorated in free fall some time ago. Because Sino-US relations have deteriorated, it has deeply hurt the interests of both China and the United States. However, in the medium and long term, the situation of full competition between China and the United States is inevitable. The key lies in whether China and the United States will enter into vicious competition or conduct controlled and healthy competition. The next period of time is also very critical.
text/Xie Lian
