When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is in full swing, Türkiye will send troops Syria . What’s interesting is that the United States and Russia are consistent in their attitude towards this, and Erdogan’s political mediation ability is fully demonstrated.
After Türkiye announced air strikes on Kurdish militant groups in Syria, Erdogan made it clear that will dispatch ground troops at appropriate times.
The Russian side made a special reminder on this.
According to Russian TASS on November 28, Russian President's Special Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentev said " Turkish should fulfill all commitments in Idlib, Syria."
As we all know, in modern military air strikes are often the weakest means of invasiveness. Only by dispatching ground troops is the type of occupation of .
Although Syria's people's livelihood is declining and devastated in the war, it is at least a sovereign country recognized by the United Nations.
If it were other times, the international community would definitely jump out to condemn it, but this time everyone surprisingly expressed that understands , which is a bit incredible.
The United States and Russia are surprisingly consistent in their attitudes, and the reasons are nothing more than the following three points.
First point, the Turkish master is famous.
The major terrorist attacks in Istanbul have angered the whole country of Türkiye. In addition, similar terrorist attacks occur from time to time, Erdogan can finally clean up the Kurdish armed forces in neighboring countries.
Counter-terrorism operations are actions that the international community unanimously recognizes and strongly supports. Five permanent members have their own "counter-terrorism mission" , and there is no reason not to agree with Turkey's counterattack.
, especially the West has been secretly supporting the activities of Kurdistan Workers' Party . If the position is clearly opposed to Turkey's military operations at this time, it will only backfire.
Second point, Türkiye itself has strong independence, and it is difficult for the United States and Russia to interfere.
Türkiye plays a positive role in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, in the process of NATO expansion, the United States has to ask Türkiye to vote for the participation of Nordic countries.
Although Türkiye is a NATO country, it maintains its independence in many matters.
's political independence is reflected in the failure of Türkiye's domestic military coup in 2016, and Erdogan has since consolidated his ruling power. The economic independence of
is reflected in the context of Fed crazy rate hike , while the Turkish central bank continues to cut rate hike . Türkiye's agriculture and animal husbandry are also in a state of self-sufficiency, and there are no problems with basic people's livelihood.
So Erdogan can be considered entirely for Türkiye's strategic interests and will not be too affected by the international situation.
Third point, it is difficult for the United States and Russia to pull out their hands to clamp down Türkiye.
Although the Russian army has military bases stationed in Syria, it is simply unable to deter the earth's operations.
Not to mention the US military, the base is attacked by rocket at any time, and the fundamental task of US military is to "steal oil and food" .
In Idlib region, there is a situation of multilateral competition.
What Russia is most worried about now is that after Türkiye sends troops, it will actually control the region, thereby opening up the channel between Aleppo , Latakia, and Hama .
is not only involved in Russia, but Iran is also very worried that Türkiye's growing influence will affect the current situation of regional stability.
Unfortunately, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict attracted the attention of the whole world in Eastern Europe, and even the United States did not dare to rashly stop Turkey's expansion. This cheapness made Erdogan pick it up.
In short, if Türkiye really sends troops to occupy the Idlib region, it will be regarded by the outside world as the first step of expansion.
In fact, I personally think that in view of the current situation, it is not a wise move for Erdogan to insist on annexing Idlib.
First of all, the domestic situation in Turkey is tight. Coupled with the presidential election next year, Erdogan does not want to make some extravagant things.
Since this year, Türkiye's inflation rate has reached 80% or above. Although the basic lives of the people have been guaranteed, this obvious currency depreciation cannot be felt.
Economic issues always determine vote politics. If people's livelihood further falls to the bottom due to the war budget, Erdogan's general election can only be said to be bleak.
So the intensity and time of this war cannot be too long, and the Turkish army will not be stationed in the area, causing conflicts.
Secondly, the regional situation does not allow it, Erdogan must start from long-term interests.
Russia and Iran are Turkey's biggest problem in solving the Syrian problem. On the one hand, the military strength of these two countries cannot be underestimated. On the other hand, Türkiye's continued development requires support or tolerance from more countries.
forcibly annexed Idlib will only arouse opposition from Russia, Iraq and Syria, worsen the situation of Türkiye's geopolitical , and will not be conducive to long-term development.
, especially these three countries are typical resource export countries. If an energy dilemma is formed for Türkiye, it will affect the domestic economic situation.
Of course, all this depends on how big Erdogan's appetite is, and whether he dares to swallow this piece of fat under the huge international pressure.
Finally, I hope that in this military operation, I can lose hope for innocent lives and end it as soon as possible.
