Source: The Paper
US President Biden The pictures in this article are Visual China Data pictures
As the time of nearly two years of administration, US President Biden ushered in his first "middle term exam". On November 8th local time, against the backdrop of high inflation in the domestic market, severe political polarization and intensified social divisions, the war drums of the midterm elections were officially ringing.
is no different from previous years. This year's midterm election determines the control of the Senate and House of Representatives, that is, re-electing all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. The Democrats and Republicans will form a new power game situation in Congress.
At the same time, a series of notable unusual phenomena are happening one after another: leaders of both parties and candidates of parliament spared no effort to carry out election mobilization, voters' attention and participation exceeding the past, and record midterm election expenditures... This seems to indicate that the particularity and importance of this midterm election are different from the past. Therefore, many American political observers regard it as a "rehearsal" of the 2024 election.
"Although the results of the midterm election are not necessarily related to the next election, the meaning of this election is very strong, which is different from the past." Diao Daming, a researcher at the National Development and Strategy Institute of Renmin University of China and deputy director of the American Research Center, analyzed to The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that this election involves some issues that will only appear during the election, which has a certain "linkage" with the 2024 election.
CNNCNN even conducted a forward-looking analysis, "The 2024 presidential election will begin immediately after November 8, and it is likely to kick off before the vote count is completed."
focuses on the observation of a series of "abnormal" phenomena during the midterm elections, and Wang Hao, associate professor at the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, believes that the current political ecology of the United States is showing a distorted trend of "election-based election". Wang Hao said in an interview with The Paper, "Under the background of further deepening of domestic political polarization and rift in the United States, the midterm election has become a variable that shapes the political structure of the United States and thus deeply affects the direction of the US internal affairs and diplomatic agenda."
is comparable to the "famous scene" of the general election
This midterm election is the first election since the 2020 election, especially since the Capitol Hill riots in January last year. During this period, social issues such as inflation, abortion rights, gun control, and immigration policies broke out, and competition between the two parties was particularly fierce.
It is worth mentioning that many "famous scenes" that can only be seen in the general election also appeared in this midterm election. The most typical one is the last weekend before the election. The three presidents and former presidents - Biden, former Democratic president Obama , and former Republican president Trump all appeared in key swing states Pennsylvania on November 5, competing for votes for candidates in their respective camps.
According to Associated Press observation, this is the first time since Biden took office that Obama has "in the same frame" with Biden at the campaign rally, and the "three presidents" confronted him in Pennsylvania , which is enough to see the importance of the state to the midterm elections. CNN believes that the Battle of Pennsylvania is a preview of the election battle that Biden may once again fight against Trump in 2024.
In Diao Daming's view, Trump, as a former president, has been exposed in this midterm election, and has also endorsed candidates widely, created momentum everywhere, and even shaped the victory of the Republican Party as his own. This phenomenon is rare.
The Pennsylvania Senate seat is crucial to the Democrats and will affect whether the party can continue to have an advantage in the Senate. According to political analysis website 538 (FiveThirtyEight), Republicans are expected to win a majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, while the Senate election is even more stalemate.
In addition, this midterm election is also known as the most "money-burning" midterm election in the United States. According to the US political donation database and non-partisan organization OpenSecrets, there are only two days left before midterm election day. The latest statistics show that this year's election is expected to cost more than $16.7 billion (including all campaign spending at the federal and state levels), becoming the most expensive one ever.
Under the "offensive" of politicians from both parties who tried their best to mobilize and overwhelm campaign advertisements, the midterm election also showed a higher turnout than before. U.S. News World Report data shows that the turnout rate of the midterm elections in 2018 reached a 40-year high, accounting for 49% of the total voting age population. This number is expected to be higher this year.
Regarding this phenomenon, Capitol Hill editor Conradis analyzed, "From the data on early voting, the turnout rate this time may be much higher than the previous average. This shows people's concerns about the current situation of the country." According to statistics from NBC on November 7, more than 40 million people have participated in early voting in the midterm elections.
American consumer news and business channel (CNBC) has also shown that voters' interest in the midterm election has reached an all-time high, and most registered voters said that for them, the election is "more important" than past midterm elections.
In addition to the above phenomena, Wang Hao also told The Paper that similar to the "chaos" in the United States' internal affairs and diplomacy that occurred before the election, such as the attack on the Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi husband at home, the search of Trump's manor, and Pelosi's exile in Taiwan in early August, are often only on the eve of the election, similar to the huge impact event similar to the "October Surprise" (referring to news events that occurred before the November election and may have an impact on the results).
Political polarization intensifies, and public opinion is divided into two parts
Through a series of unusual phenomena in this midterm election, the two parties' gunpowder-filled "open and secret struggles" are clearly visible, and behind the fierce party struggles, it reflects that the influence of the midterm elections on the domestic political landscape of the United States is on an upward trend.
How to understand the importance of midterm elections rising? Wang Hao analyzed that as the domestic political polarization and division in the United States are further deepening, the two parties will regard any political election or competition as a contest of power balance between parties, which is an inevitable result of the deepening of political polarization.
"Under this background, the Democratic and Republican parties and their supporters all believe that the other side will lead the United States in a wrong direction of development. Therefore, although it is just a midterm election, it will be regarded by both sides as a contest that determines the future direction of the country." Wang Hao explained.
CNBC's survey also shows that about 80% of Democratic and Republican voters believe that the political opposition poses a threat to its own interests and that if it is not stopped, it will destroy the United States.
This mobilization strategy that over-examination of the consequences of defeat and the "competitive narrative" of zero-sum game style are fully reflected in this midterm election. The most typical example is the recent confrontation between Biden and Trump at the Pennsylvania campaign rally. In his speech, Biden emphasized, "The election results will reshape the United States in the next few decades... This is a choice, a choice between two completely different American visions."
On the same day, in Latrob, Pennsylvania, Trump was not outdone. He criticized the Biden administration for being unable to cope with crime, illegal immigration and high inflation, and warned seriously that if the Republican Party loses the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections, "I don't know if this country can live for another two years."
In fact, the political polarization reflected in this midterm election can be traced back to the 1970s. After half a century of regime rotation and fierce debates caused by some major political events, the issue of political polarization has become increasingly prominent.
It should be noted that since Trump’s administration, new changes have occurred in the political polarization of the United States. Wang Hao analyzed that after Trump took office, he strengthened the momentum of the two parties' "veto politics" (referring to excessive use of veto power within the government or institutions and "opposing for the sake of opposition"), making it further evolve into a mutual "stigmatization", suppression, slander, and even taking retaliatory actions.
Obviously, Biden himself has already felt that the potential "revenge" behavior is pressing step by step. According to the website of the US " News Weekly ", Biden recently revealed that if the Democrats lose the midterm election and allow the Republicans to gain control of the Congress, he will face the risk of being impeached.He also explained to voters that he was "not kidding".
At present, the consequence of the intensified political polarization is the further deterioration of the American political ecology. A poll conducted by the Washington Post and the ABC jointly showed that 88% of Americans were worried that political differences would intensify, increasing the risk of political violence in the United States. NBC noted that for many voters, the spiral of violence and concerns are creating anxiety, paranoia and an overwhelming sense of fear that the country is on the eve of destruction.
"This trend of political polarization may be difficult to reverse." Wang Hao explained that de-industrialization , economic financialization, virtualization, and bubbles have caused the economic and social structure of the United States to change, the middle class has continued to shrink, and the gap between the rich and the poor has widened. When the middle class in the social structure is in a minority position, extreme ideas of extreme left or extreme right emerge. The "Trump phenomenon" and the white populist thought he represents are the manifestation of this extreme trend of thought.
Former US President Trump
Will the United States return to the hustle and bustle of the "Trump era"?
Although this midterm election has a certain linkage effect with the 2024 general election, in Diao Daming's view, this election overall still looks relatively "normal".
Diao Daming further explained that the common "public opinion reversal" phenomenon in midterm elections (that is, the ruling party usually loses its seat in the first midterm elections after taking office); and the focus on issues such as economy, medical care, and people's livelihood in the elections is no essential difference from the past. It can be said that this is still a relatively typical midterm election.
However, judging from the election trends since the preliminary election in March this year, this midterm election also showed some trends that may have a long-term impact on the future US political ecology, which is worthy of our attention.
On the one hand, who will eventually fall in the state seats may prove whether there is any essential adjustment in the traditional sphere of influence of the two parties. "When there are only one or two days left before the formal election, there are still some key state seats that are more suspenseful." Diao Daming pointed out that the focus of the problem is not only on the suspense itself, but on the "indicator" significance of these key states to the two parties.
According to CNN, the election situation of the six key states, including Arizona , Georgia , Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, may determine the ownership of control of the Senate. Looking back at the 2020 presidential election, all of the above six states were won by Biden.
But it is worth mentioning that in the 2016 election, then Republican presidential candidate Trump won votes in five states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But in the 2020 general election, the above five continents "turned from red to blue" and were won by Biden.
"If this trend (referring to the 'red from red to blue' in the 2020 general election) is secondly confirmed in this midterm election, it may subvert the trend of conservatization in southern states (referring to Arizona and Georgia) since the US civil rights movement." Therefore, Diao Damin believes that changes in the Senate seats not only determine the ownership of the Senate in the next two years, but also concern the trend of the change in the sphere of influence of the two parties at the level of "sectionalism".
Another trend worthy of attention is that due to the overthrow of the "Roy v. Wade case", such a narrative of "cultural war" may continue to affect the future direction of American politics.
On June 24 this year, the verdict made by the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the 1973 "Roy v. Wade case" caused an uproar. Judging from the poll data, the social rift caused by this "historical regression" has been directly reflected in the electoral political level.
According to CNN on November 8, the poll results of Edison Research Corporation on American voters who have voted in the midterm elections showed that abortion rights are second only to inflation and have become one of the most concerned issues for American voters.
Diao Damin pointed out that if conservatives continue to erode the achievements of the "civil rights movement" through their overwhelmingly controlled judicial power , American society will become increasingly divided and its impact on politics will become more severe in the future.
"This midterm election has ended the relatively boring and calm state of American politics in the past two years. American politics may soon return to the more noisy and noisy state of the 'Trump era', even more serious than this." Diao Damin concluded.
