It has to be said that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Germany has become the most "unable" country in .
The root cause is that Merkel has stepped down, and Germany ushered in " Scholz era" . Berlin inevitably has to go through some turmoil and twists and turns. Compared with the "Queen of Europe" who has been in charge of the German regime for 16 years, Scholz, whose political qualifications mainly come from the position of mayor of Hamburg , is indeed a little immature.
This means that Scholz is often subject to some hindrance. In addition, he and Merkel are of different parties, and their political stance naturally affects his governing style.
Some things, Merkel dares to do and has the ability to do them, but Scholz is inevitably is hindered .
For example, when the United States sells 4 times the high price of liquefied natural gas to Europe, Merkel will at least publicly express dissatisfaction with Washington , and use its appeal to unite EU member states to jointly put pressure on the United States to fight for a more suitable price.
Of course, if Merkel is still there, the energy cooperation between Germany and Russia may not be as difficult as today.
But now, only French President Macron has come out, taking the lead in questioning ignoring the "friendship" between Europe and the United States, and emphasizing that the price of natural gas sold in Europe in the United States is "related to the sincerity of transatlantic trade" , and also reminded the Biden administration in a remarkable way: Your approach "is a double standard" .
However, just when France intends to lead the EU countries to unite and set an upper limit on natural gas prices . However, the Scholz government early took out 200 billion euros to try to subsidize energy to the country. There is no doubt that Germany's plan is to spend more money to rush energy in the market, and it has been criticized as "surrenderism" .
Macron was very dissatisfied with this and publicly accused Berlin of "distorting" the European market in . Its behavior of isolating itself is not good for Germany and Europe. In view of this, regular ministerial meetings between France and Germany were forced to postpone, and the leaders of the two countries did not even hold a joint press conference after the hasty talks on October 26.
Various signs indicate that there are increasing differences between France and Germany, and their key partnerships are facing obstacles. Foreign media claim that "the wound in the heart of the EU is ulcerating" .
But in this context, the Scholz government has firmly begun to promote large-scale energy relief plans. On November 3 local time, Berlin has reached an agreement with the heads of 16 state governments to jointly share the burden on the finances of a package of energy subsidies.
German media claimed that this paved the way for the implementation of the 200 billion euro subsidy plan .
In other words, Macron's warning to Scholz was ignored. The last meeting between the two sides did not produce positive results. The EU's energy policy has also begun to part ways. countries will have to "select side stations" .
In addition to energy policy, the two sides have quite different differences in foreign policy, and Germany often does things that contradict .
For example, a few days ago, a German government representative openly claimed that Serbia must make a choice, whether it wants to join the EU, or intends to continue to maintain a partnership with Russia? If Serbian President Vucic goes to the EU, it will receive support from Berlin. But if you choose another way, then "consequences" .
This is an unblocked threat, and it is Germany's "power" to the Vucic government's , because Scholz will host the Western Balkans National and Regional Leaders' Summit on November 3, which also made the atmosphere before the summit even more tense.
At the same time, Turkish President Erdogan , who just spoke with Scholz, said in a TV interview on the 2nd local time that Scholz held a completely different position from Putin a month ago, but has now changed and is advocating the search for a common language.
So, what exactly is Scholz's real idea? Let’s talk about two simple points.
first. At present, it seems that there is no consensus within Germany yet, and the Scholz government's policy toward Russia is still on the verge of sway. The reasons for this status quo are very complicated, both related to Scholz and the overall environment of German politics.
As mentioned at the beginning of the article, Scholz is not as politically courageous as Merkel. He himself is a relatively weak leader of . Such a leader often shows that his strength is not as good as under the background of "great changes unseen in a century".
As for German politics, it is currently in a very wonderful situation, that is, the government is in charge of the three parties in . This also causes different voices to be heard within the German government today, and Scholz's ruling foundation is not stable.
Second, France and Germany's attitude towards Russia also differed . Macron and Putin used phone calls a lot. France hoped that the relationship between the two sides could return to rationality, rather than being "led by the US policy towards Russia and Ukraine" .
is the German government's position towards Russia. Previously, was generally biased towards Central and Eastern European countries , because the Merkel government's tolerance towards Russia and Russia-German economic and trade cooperation have always made these countries complain. So after Scholz came to power, Germany was forced to turn amid these criticisms, so it was difficult to advance and retreat with France in foreign policy.
However, if what the Turkish president said is true, then France and Germany's policy toward Russia may have the possibility of cooperation.
But no matter what, France and Germany cannot lead the EU alone, and the development trend of the EU is also inseparable from either France or Germany. In short, France-German relations will affect Europe's international status, where will the Scholz government's policy trend go, and will also affect Europe's geopolitical pattern.
