After Russia defined the Crimea Bridge explosion as a terrorist attack, on October 10, Russia launched a large-scale retaliation against Ukraine, and Ukraine was hit by Russian missiles for the first time in many places such as , Kiev, and . What weapon did Russia use to strike this time, and what tricks do they have in the selection of targets, and will it lead to further escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
After the attack on the Kerch Bridge in Russia, I mentioned that an alternative way of retaliation in Russia is to launch an missile strike on the symbolic political target of Ukraine in Kiev. For example, Kiev Presidential Office, Parliament, intelligence agencies, etc. In fact, Russia's targets selected by the attack did indeed focus on these symbolic goals first.
It is reported that missiles fell in the streets near Zelensky's office, and the headquarters of the Ukrainian National Security Agency was hit by missiles, and the Kiev Municipal Government was also hit. At that time, British BBC reporters were talking about "Russian revenge" during a TV broadcast, and the missile flew past his head and he had to hide. Secondly, some targets involving national economy and people's livelihood have been hit. Information shows that the Kiev Thermal Power Plant was hit by multiple Kh-101 missiles. Videos online also show that some bridges were attacked by missiles, but the damage was limited. The blow to the above target is on the one hand, to punish Ukrainian intelligence agencies and other government departments involved in the Kerch Bridge explosion, and on the other hand, to retaliate against Ukrainian infrastructure after the Kerch Bridge was bombed. In addition, the Russian army also hopes to hit the morale of the Ukrainian people, but this small-scale strike may backfire.
Russian army launches missiles in the Black Sea
Let’s take a look at the main weapons of Russia’s strike this time, mainly expensive missiles. There are three types of missiles, one is the Kh-101 cruise missile , which is mainly carried and launched by the Tu-95 bomber and the Tu-160 bomber of the Aerospace Army. Currently, these two bombers are mainly used to launch the cruise missile , and do not even have the ability to drop conventional bombs. The second type is the "caliber" cruise missile launched from the ship of the Black Sea. The third type is likely to include the Iskander cruise missile. In addition, it is reported that dozens of Shahd-136 cruise missiles, or suicide drones, were fired from Belarus , to Kiev. It is not ruled out that the possibility of the Tu-22 bomber launching the KH-22/32 supersonic cruise missile over Belarus will be launched to carry out a strike. Among them, the Iskander system includes two types: ballistic missile and cruise missile, with a range of less than 500 kilometers; the caliber cruise missile based on the carrier caliber cruise missile range exceeds 1,500 kilometers; and the airborne Kh-101 range exceeds 2,500 kilometers, which is a strategic cruise missile. And Shahed-136 is the cheapest. This wave of attack on
can be said that Russia has taken out all its original foundation . Because Russia's long-range precision strike ammunition is indeed getting less and less, Ukraine said that Russia launched 75 missiles this time. This means that this intensity of blow is likely not to last long. Especially the use of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles is expensive and may not be easy to deal with some targets. If the attack on some economic targets cannot weaken Ukraine's war potential, it will have a smaller impact on the battlefield, and instead consume Russia's precise strike ammunition, which is not conducive to the concentrated attack on the Ukrainian army. During the Second World War , Germany's bombing of Britain was initially concentrated on British military targets. The British military targets were seriously damaged. At the critical moment when they were almost unable to withstand, the German army began to turn to bomb British civilian targets, which instead allowed the British army to breathe.
So, when it comes to choosing a bombing target, if the ammunition is sufficient, it is no problem to blow up the other party's civilian target and force the other party to surrender. For example, NATO bombed Yugoslaughter back then. However, if there is not such sufficient precision strike ammunition, you must choose your target carefully and focus on military targets. This is also an important reason why the Russian army did not attack Ukraine's civilian targets on a large scale before. Military targets are still unexploded, so how can we have the energy to explode so many civilian targets?Therefore, this attack on Ukrainian civilian targets will not have any impact on the battlefield situation.
But the question is, is the Russian army really just to vent their emotions? Or is it the prelude to the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
In fact, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has gradually escalated to a very high level. Except for the nuclear bomb , the Russian army used all the weapons they could use, and began to mobilize 300,000 reserve forces. If upgraded, one important thing may be to restart the ground strike in the direction of Belarus. At the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia went directly from Belarus to Ukraine to attack Kiev, but the first stage was insufficient to estimate the difficulties and finally withdrew from this direction. So after the mobilization, will Russia use this air strike on Kiev to restart the direction of Belarus? This is highly possible, even if it is just to restrain Ukraine.
Ukraine and the West also have room for upgrading. Especially after Russia launches such a large-scale strike, the United States may sell more weapons to Ukraine, including air defense missiles - which will further limit the use of the Russian Aerospace Forces. More importantly, it may lead to the United States exporting more offensive weapons to Ukraine, such as the Army tactical missile system launched by Himas rocket launcher system . This missile has an improved version of 300 kilometers, which will pose a greater threat to the Russian army, including to Russian local targets. Once such gradual escalation is formed, the Russian army may eventually be forced into a desperate situation.
We have talked about it before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was basically played within the rules of the game. However, Du Jinna was assassinated and the Beixi natural gas pipeline was attacked, especially after Crimea Bridge was bombed, causing both sides to begin to take the ordinary path and fail to abide by the rules of the game, which will lead to the conflict in an uncontrolled direction.
