Since Russia launched the war, under the strong resistance of the Ukrainian military and civilians, the strategic goal of the Russian army has not been achieved. In the early days of the war, the Russian army wanted to take over the Ukrainian capital Kiev and the second largest city Kharkov , but they soon fell into the quagmire of war in the rotten swamps north of Kiev. After the war entered the second stage, although the Russian army achieved considerable results in the Donbas area, the recent large-scale counterattacks launched by the Ukrainian army in Kharson and Kharkov caused great losses to Russia, completely tore off the skin of this so-called world's second military power. In addition, Ukraine also attacked the most important supply line in southern Russia, that is, Crimea Bridge , which further difficulties the situation faced by the Russian army.
This war has been more than seven months so far. On the one hand, it has caused very heavy losses to Russia itself, but on the other hand, it has also made Ukraine and the Western countries that support them feel quite uncomfortable. Ukrainian government departments said it was affected by multiple factors such as war, bad weather and the drag on the progress of autumn harvest. Ukraine's economy shrank about 30% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year.
Ukraine's Ministry of Economic Development and Trade also issued a statement on the same day saying that Ukraine's GDP fell by nearly 35% year-on-year, which is basically the same as the decline in August. However, since the outbound transportation agreement for agricultural products at the port of Black Sea has been signed, Ukraine's exports have shown certain signs of recovery. Compared to August, Ukraine's exports rose by 23% in September, a figure that reached the highest level since the outbreak of the war.
However, until now, Ukraine's national foundation has undoubtedly been shaken. This year, Ukraine's export scale is less than a fraction of last year's, and its social consumption capacity has been completely compressed, and the only investment is limited to the military field. Currently, the Ukrainian government's monthly fiscal deficit is as high as about US$7 billion, and basically the expenditure of the military and civil servants is heavily dependent on financial aid from Western countries. If the West suddenly announces the termination of aid to Ukraine one day, the Ukrainian government will probably go bankrupt the next day.
At present, Ukraine has mobilized all social resources to serve the war, and its military expenditure has exceeded 20% of the GDP, which is the same as North Korea. Moreover, after multiple rounds of mobilization, nearly 40% of Ukraine's labor force is directly or indirectly serving the war. The labor shortage brought about has seriously affected the normal social order of the country, not to mention millions of war refugees fleeing Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine's industrial and agricultural production has shrunk greatly compared to before the war and is completely unable to achieve self-sufficiency.
Therefore, it is not difficult for us to see the current embarrassment facing the Ukrainian government, that is, the aid provided by the West must not be cut off. It is also worth mentioning that the current benchmark interest rate of of the Ukrainian Central Bank has reached 25%, which shows that there is no normal economic operation at all. Moreover, Ukraine's post-war reconstruction requires at least hundreds of billions of dollars. Ukraine, which has been destroyed, will definitely not be able to afford it. Their post-war reconstruction also depends on the West.
However, the problem is that Western countries, especially , EU , are currently living a very uncomfortable life due to the multiple rounds of sanctions against Russia. Not long ago, Germany and France also publicly stated that the United States sold natural gas to them was too expensive. You should know that Western aid cannot be a bottomless pit. How they can survive this winter safely is still unknown.
In the past, Ukraine also relied on Russian natural gas, but now the scale of their imports of Russian natural gas has been reduced to 0. Ukraine may not even be able to guarantee heating for normal residents, let alone support a war. This winter is the key to the entire war.
