Putin html Just after his 270th birthday, Ukraine sent a "difficulty" to him. According to media reports, of the Crimea Bridge suddenly exploded, some sections of the road were destroyed, and the entire bridge has been suspended. After the incident, Ukrainian side quickly stated that the bombing of the Crimea Bridge was just the beginning, which was equivalent to indirect recognition of Ukrainian side's conduct of the attack. In addition, Ukrainian media also said that the attack was a carefully planned operation by the Ukrainian National Security Administration. In addition, the Foreign Minister of Estonia also publicly congratulated the Ukrainian special forces because he speculated that the Crimean Bridge was bombed with the participation of the Ukrainian special forces. Based on various news, it can basically be confirmed that it was an attack launched by Ukraine.
attack method on the Ukrainian army, it can be seen that the news shows that it should have come from the bomb explosion, not the missile attack that the Russian media first mentioned. According to the investigation by the Russian Counter-Terrorism Committee, the explosion was mainly caused by an oil tanker , which ignited the train beside it. If this is the case, it means that Ukraine has been planning for a long time and has infiltrated Crimea, which means that Ukraine can bomb not only the Crimean Bridge, but the other important transportation routes and facilities in the region may also become targets in the future.
In my opinion, there are two main reasons why Ukraine chose to attack the Crimean Bridge. First, this bridge is not only a major transportation route, but also has special political significance. It is a landmark facility for Russia to actually control Crimea. When the bridge was opened to traffic, Putin drove across the bridge himself, which shows the particularity of the political significance of the bridge. Ukraine's attack on the Crimea Bridge this time is to compete with Russia for the ownership of Crimea.
Second, in order to cut off the supply of the Russian army on the southern front. If the Russian army in the Khlsong region wants to obtain logistics supplies from the local area, there are only two ways to choose from. One is to pass the Crimea Bridge and directly transport it to Khlsson; the other is to detour Donetsk and Zaporoze , and then arrive at Khlsson. Obviously the first route is the best route because the distance is closer. Now that the Crimea Bridge is temporarily suspended, the Russian army in Khlsun's direction to obtain supplies can only choose the second route, or use ferry to transport materials through the Chikki Strait.
Therefore, the logistics supply of the Russian army in the direction of Khlsun will be affected, and it will also have a certain impact on the Russian army's combat will. At present, the Ukrainian army is increasing its counterattack efforts and trying to achieve as many counterattack results as possible before the Russian army's newly recruited 300,000 troops are fully taken into place, so Ukraine has sufficient motivation to attack the Crimean Bridge.
In fact, as early as July this year, Ukraine had made many statements that once there is a possibility of blowing up the Crimean Bridge, Ukraine will take action, so this attack has been planned for a long time.
Of course, the bombing of the Crimea Bridge has occurred and cannot be restored, so there are four main things facing Russia now, and immediate action must be taken.
First of all, stabilize the social order in the Crimea region. According to the local government, there are currently tens of thousands of Russian people on vacation in the local area, and local daily necessities can only maintain demand for two months, and fuel supply is only enough to last for half a month, and it is urgently needed to replenish them. However, although the only land passage has been cut off, there is still a ferry to replenish supplies, so it is not difficult to stabilize the social order in the Crimea region.
Secondly, solve the logistics supply problem in the Khlsong area and stabilize the morale of the Russian army on the front. Then, we will increase the intensity of investigations in the Crimea region, eliminate Ukraine's infiltration, and avoid similar situations from happening again.
Finally, seize the time to repair the Crimea Bridge and strive to restore and open traffic as soon as possible. Ensure the smoothness of transportation channels. Judging from the pictures on the scene, the arches of the bridge were not affected too much, so this attack was not fatal to the bridge. However, when the repair will be completed, the Russian side is also evaluating, and there is no definite answer.But if the bridge cannot be guaranteed to be attacked again, it will be meaningless even if the bridge is repaired quickly. After all, destruction is easier than construction.
Of course, the attack on the Crimean Bridge was a serious provocative act. Since Ukraine has admitted that Russia will inevitably take measures to respond. As early as two months ago, when Ukraine threatened to bomb the Crimean Bridge, Russia had a clear response, "If Ukraine dares to launch an attack on the bridge, it will be responded by Russia's "Judgement Day" style."
with the Russian nation's nature and since the Russian government has issued a warning, it will definitely be fulfilled, otherwise the Putin government will face a crisis of trust. At present, I think Russia has at least 2 counterattack options to choose from.
The first solution is peer-to-peer counter. Ukraine blows up the Crimea Bridge, and Russia can also launch a precise strike on Ukraine's iconic facilities. However, if Putin's response is limited to this, it may be difficult to give an explanation to the country, and it will also make Ukraine more aggressive, so there should be a stronger response.
The second plan further escalates the conflict and even declares war directly on Ukraine on the grounds that Ukraine attacks Russia's large civil infrastructure. Russian State Duma representative Morozov said bluntly after the attack that this was a "declaration of war" on Russia. However, for Russia, if it is really ready to declare war, it is actually easy to find reasons and will not wait until the Crimean Bridge is attacked before declaring war. Once war is officially declared on Ukraine, the nature of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will change, and such an ending is undoubtedly what the United States wants to see. So in my opinion, the second solution is unlikely, and the first one is the most likely. The outside world has always speculated that the "judgmental" response may be a tactical nuclear strike, but the possibility is actually not high. After all, Russia wants to win the war, rather than a nuclear war-like mutual destruction.
At present, how to counterattack is a difficult task for Putin. Putin has ordered the formation of a government committee to investigate the matter, which also provides a buffer period for countermeasures. After the "North Stream" pipeline was bombed, the Crimea Bridge was also bombed, and the United States and Ukraine are gradually approaching Putin's bottom line, which will also add more instability and uncertainty to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and even global security.
