The Russian-Ukrainian War can be analyzed from multiple perspectives. These perspectives have both independent logical basis and interact with each other. Neither these perspectives nor logic exist in isolation, but the result of joint action and joint promotion. Only by observing from these multiple perspectives can we truly and comprehensively understand this war.
We can list some perspectives: This war is a geopolitical battle between the United States and the West and Russia, and a war between NATO and Russia for Ukraine; this war is also the war between the United States and by creating a powerful enemy for EU , thus forcing the EU to act according to the will of the United States and eventually join forces to deal with China; this war is also the war between the United States and the United States promotes the "new Cold War" Prerequisites; This war is still a war in which the United States tests tactics and strategies. The goal is to repeat it in the Taiwan Strait in the future... · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
However, there is a perspective that they are fascinated by the authorities, or they also feel a little bit, but they do not realize that the seriousness of the problem, nor do they realize that this time is different from the past. The United States has really opened its bloody mouth and wants to eat up all the economic energy of its allies!
If you pay attention, you will find that the United States began to inflation in April 2021, and then continued to rise. By December 2021, the United States' CPI had risen by 0.5% month-on-month and 7% year-on-year. Don’t forget that this data is the data after adjusting the energy weight. In fact, the US CPI has exceeded 10% at this time, and the daily consumer goods have increased by more than 20%. The economic problems in the United States are very serious, and the severity is that the severely hollowed-out US economy can no longer withstand the fluctuations in energy prices.
You can recall that when oil prices rose to $147 in 2017, inflation pressure was all over the world developing countries , and the United States had almost no inflation, so he was extremely calm. However, this time when the energy price exceeded 70 or 80 dollars, the US economy could not stand it. Of course, severe inflation in the United States is not just the reason for the rise in energy prices, but the United States released more than $6 trillion in liquidity in the year from 2020 to 2021 in order to stabilize the economy. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon in most cases. When the huge amount of US dollar 1 US capital market cannot carry it, and the United States cannot transfer these US dollars to the international market, the backlash of inflation comes.
Objectively, the severe inflation in the United States is somewhat unsolvable, and just hiking interest rates through cannot be solved well. Moreover, because the valuation of US stock is too high, the fierce interest rate hike of Federal Reserve can easily cause a collapse in the capital market. Once the US stock market collapses, it will be an economic disaster everywhere. A new debt crisis will break out, and its severity may be more serious than the subprime mortgage crisis , because the asset value of US stocks is much overestimated now than in 2008. Once the stock market collapses, it will inevitably be severe inflation and currency depreciation, and inflation will not change because of Fed rate hike .
In this case, if the United States wants to raise interest rates violently and stabilize the capital market as much as possible, it must make the whole world unsafe and put the whole world in turmoil. The United States originally planned to defeat China, so it launched a trade war and a technology war against China, and it continued to raise troubles in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, but the final result was that the United States was defeated in the trade war, the technology war was stalemate, and the United States did not dare to show off with China alone in the geopolitical war... On March 18, 2021, Chinese leaders trained senior officials in the White House as if they were training elementary school students. However, as Chinese leaders kept "slapping" the United States in the face, the United States leaders did not dare to confront the Chinese leaders.After that, it has been proved that the United States dared not showdown with China alone, and the Biden administration finally turned the contradiction plan back to Ukraine.
provoked the war in the Taiwan Strait. The United States competed with China alone. In the end, the United States will definitely lose. The US think tanks have made countless deductions. It is precisely because the US military knew that the showdown with China alone with China alone could not win China, so after the showdown between China and the United States on March 18, 2021, the United States turned to Ukraine again. To put it bluntly, the United States dare not chew on China's hard bones, so it went to pinch the soft persimmon of Ukraine again. Of course, the United States does not dare to directly confront China because the United States' own economy urgently needs foreign "blood transfusions", and it is impossible to see a clear understanding of the confrontation with China in a short period of time, and the United States cannot achieve its goal at all. However, Ukraine is different, and the United States will have immediate results.
This is the fundamental reason why Zelensky led the American media to the front line in eastern Ukraine to perform around and could not arouse interest from the White House. In the second half of the year, the situation in Russia and Ukraine suddenly became tense.
After China showed up with the United States Alaska, the United States chose to provoke the intensification of the situation in Russia and Ukraine by guiding Ukraine to join NATO. After receiving the intelligence, Russia began to make military preparations. This is why the Russian army was preparing to start military exercises several months in advance, because Russia received certain information from the United States that Ukraine wanted to join NATO, and Putin was determined to use military means to stop it.
Comrades who purchased the limited-edition commemorative wine that last year Zhanhao and Luzhou Laojiao should be able to see the 20,000 words " Big Turning " article inside, which particularly emphasized the big showdown between China and the United States in the analysis. After this showdown between China and the United States, the world is a major turning point, and it is also a major turning point for China. Many major events around the world will happen with this major turning point. The Russian-Ukraine War is actually the United States' inability to attack China, and thus attacking Russia through Ukraine. The United States' idea is to attack Russia first, and then control the EU and other Western countries to jointly attack China.
From an economic perspective, the United States cannot wait anymore and must quickly "replenish blood", otherwise inflation will not be transferred, and the risks in the capital market make the United States a little afraid of it. Therefore, the White House thought of "sucking blood" the EU and Japan led by Germany and France through the Russian-Ukraine War to solve its own economic problems. To put it bluntly, from an economic perspective, the Russian-Ukraine war is a tool to cooperate with the United States' interest rate hikes and solve the US economic problems.
For example, in the past, the United States' interest rate hike was just a wool cut from the world, and allies were of course no exception, but after the interest rate hike cycle, capital will return to the EU, so the negative impact is not too great, and it is still acceptable to the EU and other countries. This time, the EU and Japan did not realize this at first, and now they may have just realized that something is wrong, but their minds are not clear yet. They didn't know that the United States' target was not only Russia, but also China. They were the ones who were eaten first.
This time the United States swallowed up the economy of the EU and Japan, and its methods are still inseparable from the roots. We only need to look at the time nodes to see the treasure. The Russian-Ukrainian war broke out on February 24, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time on March 16. After that, as the Russian-Ukrainian war deepened, the Federal Reserve tried to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the beginning, and then began to raise interest rates violently. Recently, it has raised interest rates by 75 basis points three times in a row, which is rare in history. At the current pace, the Fed will eventually raise interest rates to more than 5%. Raising to more than 5% means that if you exchange money for US dollars, you will get more than 5% interest. Can funds not flow to the United States?
So we see that currencies in various countries are depreciating wildly. On the one hand, this is the result of capital flight. On the other hand, there are also Wall Street funds short and other currencies to make money. The United States has raised interest rates wildly, and cooperated with the Russian-Ukrainian war, you can imagine how much funds flowed into the United States from the EU. These funds entered the US market and some funds entered the stock market, so we saw that the US stock market did not experience a cliff-like plunge.However, even so, the United States is still under great pressure and there is still a possibility of a plunge in the future.
In addition, it is easy for the United States to be crazy, and the value of the US dollar will increase. This is equivalent to the increase in the purchasing power of the United States, so it can buy more international goods to stabilize prices. In the future, the United States can also acquire cheap assets globally by releasing liquidity on a large scale. In short, this round of crazy interest rate hikes, the United States has cut the world's leeks, especially the EU's funds have run away due to the dual factors of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
If things only end up with this, EU countries including Germany, France and Japan can still bear it, but the United States wants more than that, but there are also European countries such as Germany and Japan's high-end manufacturing industries. This is what kills countries such as Germany and Japan!
I wonder if you have thought about it. Why must the United States explode the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline? One of the most fundamental reasons is that the United States wants to significantly weaken Germany's energy supply capacity. Just imagine, when Russia's natural gas cannot be transported to Germany at all, not only can Germany not guarantee supply of natural gas, but also can't provide electricity. In this way, Germany's industry will suffer a heavy blow. Not only will the energy cost increase significantly, but the most important thing is that even electricity cannot be guaranteed. This will make the company's costs too high. Why have the four major auto companies in Germany, , Mercedes-Benz, , BMW, , Audi, and Volkswagen all increased their investment in China? This is the reason.
Automobile is the largest "cash bull" made in Germany. Now it has begun to transfer to China on a large scale, which is not good news for Germany, but German companies must survive, otherwise the problem of waiting for death in Germany is even greater. Although Japan is slightly better than Germany, Japan's energy costs will also rise sharply after it cannot obtain Russian energy. Coupled with currency depreciation, Japanese companies will also face a trend of weak competitiveness.
In this round, Germany, France, Japan and other European countries will be frantically robbed by the United States. They will only truly change after things happen and they discover the problem. Therefore, this round will be a very miserable time for Western countries such as Germany, France, Japan.
Zhan Hao’s " The World of Contest - A Good Opportunity to Breakthrough in the Fog! " wrote a passage:
At the global level, the surge in population, the promotion of globalization, and the unfairness and unreasonable distribution of global production. makes production relations unable to adapt to the needs of productivity, and productivity cannot meet the needs of the people of the world for a better life. Therefore, the competition for resources, interests, and power unfolds on a global scale, which has formed a political struggle between countries and countries. This kind of struggle is often a big loss for a country, and great turmoil between any country may have a subversive impact on one country or even many countries.
Everyone has seen this round of game, and now it has just entered the "world of great competition". As a result, Ukraine will inevitably lose a big loss, and the EU will inevitably lose a big loss. Russia may win and lose a big loss in the future. It is the end that China and the United States can decide who is the big loss. For China, to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, we must win a lot, and China's big losses are related to the fate of each of us. In this round of great game, whoever eats meat and drinks soup after the final result comes out, who can only drink the northwest wind, and who can't even drink the northwest wind is clear at a glance. Just like Ukraine, I'm afraid there will be no chance to drink the northwest wind!
