has not yet settled, and it has risen again!
For the current protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there are two major events that are most worthy of attention: : Donetsk , Lugansk , Khlsson and Zaporoze 4 "referendum to Russia". triggered a huge change in the situation. Ukraine was furious and continued to launch a fierce attack on Russia. The United States and the West imposed large-scale sanctions and blockades on Russia;
: The Russian "Northern Stream" natural gas pipeline was bizarrely bombed, and 4 leaks appeared in and triggered an underwater explosion, which once again exacerbated the energy crisis in Europe and the confrontation between Russia and the West.
After all, Europe is about to enter winter, and the repair time of the "Northern Stream" pipeline takes at least half a year or a year . Without Russian natural gas, Europe will be extremely difficult this year.
plus, on the issue of "who did it" , Russia accused it of being a malicious US and Western forces, with the aim of completely severing Russia-European natural gas energy trade exchanges and further putting pressure on Russia.
However, American and Western politicians "turned around" , saying that this was Russia's "self-directed and acted by itself", intending to blame the United States and the West and create reasons for refusing to provide natural gas to Europe.
However, Russia clearly denied the "absurd statement" of US and Western politicians, and is generally disagreeable. After all, after the "North Stream" pipeline was bombed, it took time, laborious and required a lot of funds to repair it. Compared with the "reason for Russian self-directed and self-acted" mentioned by Western politicians, is a completely "lose transaction", and it is not an exaggeration to describe it as "injuring one hundred enemies and losing one thousand themselves".
Therefore, the question of "who did it" obviously became Rashomon again. But behind this reflects the intensification of conflicts between Russia and the West, and the continued increase in the probability of direct conflict between Russia and the West.
. Fortunately, on the 3rd, the Danish Energy Agency and the Russian Natural Gas Company both confirmed that the " Nord Stream 1" and "North Stream 2" pipelines destroyed by have stopped leaking, and the air pressure and water pressure in the pipeline have also reached a balance.
This means that the parties involved in the "North Stream" pipeline can next investigate, evaluate and formulate repair plans for the damaged pipeline. In the original expectation, the "North Stream" pipeline may have to leak for at least one week before it will stop leaking. Now the actual situation is indeed much earlier than expected.
and the damaged pipeline stopped leaking in advance, and there are three main factors influencing:
. At the time of the incident, the "Beixi 1" and "Beixi 2" pipelines were both in a "stop air", so the amount of natural gas stored in the pipeline was fixed;
. Because the leaking pipeline is underwater, under the influence of water pressure and air pressure, the speed of natural gas leakage of natural gas reaches a "balance" with an air pressure in the pipeline, which is obviously faster. For example, the "bubble circle" with a diameter of more than 1 kilometer formed on the water surface;
3. The leakage points in the "Beixi" pipeline may be more than imagined. first discovered 3 leaks, and the fourth leakage point was found the next day, but the damage was lighter than the first 3.
Therefore, no one knows whether there will be more leakage points in the "North Stream" pipeline, which will speed up the leakage rate of natural gas.
In addition, although the "North Stream" pipeline has stopped leaking and the relevant investigation and evaluation work will be put on the agenda soon, the United States, Russia and Europe, as the main parties involved, are not happy at the moment, and the "unhappy" points are different.
Let’s talk about Russia first.
htmlOn the 3rd, Russian Vice Premier Novak said that technically, the possibility of repairing the "North Stream" pipeline exists, but given that there have never been similar major accidents in the past, the Russian side is not sure whether the actual operation is feasible.Before this, the Russian Natural Gas Company also stated that it has preliminarily formulated 12 HTML plans:
First, make a "big box" that sinks into the seabed, erect on the damaged pipeline, and then repair the damaged pipeline in the box;
Second, "lift the damaged pipeline to the water surface", and then repair the pipeline at sea.
But no matter which solution it is, it requires a lot of technical, financial and time support, such as time to build a "big box"; ships, cranes, etc. that carry the pipeline to the water surface are all big problems.
In particular, in the context of large-scale sanctions against Russia by the United States and the West, it is undoubtedly "more difficult" to obtain corresponding technology, ships and maintenance equipment, and to successfully repair pipelines.
And, in addition to overcoming these difficulties, Russia also has to face huge losses and blows suffered by 's "absence" of European winter natural gas energy market.
More important point is that if Russia cannot resume the transmission of natural gas to Europe, then Europe will have to "quit" Russian natural gas, which will directly affect Russia and Europe's long-term energy trade cooperation.
Therefore, whether it is the immediate direct loss or the long-term layout and cooperation situation, it is the key that Russia has to worry about.
In addition, due to Western sanctions, a large number of Russians related to energy were banned from entering the country, and the incident occurred in the Baltic area. Russia did not know how to send people to evaluate and investigate , and it was not sure how to carry out pipeline maintenance work in the future.
If the United States "puts obstacles and interferes with it" at this critical moment, Russia's situation will be even more uncomfortable.
However, compared with Russia, the United States is also "pressure".
Because, after the North Stream natural gas pipeline was destroyed, the United States has always been the "biggest suspect" in .
As a result, the United States is one of the most direct " beneficiaries ".
htmlOn the 3rd, US Secretary of State Blinken publicly stated that the "North Stream" pipeline was bombed as a "huge opportunity for " that could help Europe end its dependence on Russian energy "once and for all". also said that the United States has significantly increased the production of liquefied natural gas and is preparing to export European , and emphasized that the United States has become the main supplier of to European liquefied natural gas.
However, Europeans do not want such an "opportunity", because the prices of liquefied natural gas provided by the United States are ridiculously high, and they are obviously aiming for to "strike" .
In response to this, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova bluntly stated that Blinken's statement of "huge opportunity" has exposed the motivation of the United States and NATO to attack the "North Stream" pipeline.
Before this, Putin even said a classic saying - who benefits from it will do it.
In this way, the "suspect" in the United States is indeed not very big.
Secondly, Russia has defined the bombing of the "North Stream" pipeline as a "terrorist attack". Once finds out the culprit behind the scenes, it will respond strongly by "striking out extremist organizations".
The Russian side also said first about the United States, saying that if it is confirmed that the United States is involved in this matter, the situation in the United States and Russia will usher in "essential changes" in , and The liquefied natural gas that the United States is preparing to transport to Europe will also become the target of attack.
can be seen. The United States, which is the most suspected now, is likely to be the target of Russian anger.
, no one is destined to admit who did it, even if the investigation results show that a certain country will be denied. However, Russia will never suffer this "dumb loss" and will definitely retaliate against it "the culprit behind the scenes".
In this way, a new round of confrontation and struggle will take place again, and it is not ruled out that the Russian side directly "turns up the table" . By then, the "powder barrel" between Russia and the West is likely to be ignited.
Therefore, the most suspected United States is not only not trying to "put out the fire", but also making so-called "huge opportunity" remarks to fan the flames, which is undoubtedly challenging Russia's bottom line and Putin's patience.
It can be foreseen that if Russia is forced into a dead end, the United States will not be able to take it. Therefore, today's United States says it is not worried or afraid, and obviously no one believes it.
Finally, let’s talk about Europe, which may be the “largest loss”.
On the one hand, Europe relies heavily on Russian energy, and 245% of natural gas and 30% of oil come from Russia. Now that it is forcibly "decoupling", the energy crisis that Europe is already facing will escalate again. Due to the lack of energy, the prices of natural gas and electricity have been soaring again and again, and large-scale protests have erupted in Britain, France and Germany, Czech , Austria and other countries. After more than a month, Europe will be in full winter and greater protests may be staged again.
On the other hand, the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline was destroyed, and Europe may have to choose the expensive American liquefied natural gas, and accepts the fact that the United States is harshly fetched.
In fact, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe has been one of the "victims" of the sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia. The situation is not much optimistic than Russia. Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia-Europe relations were stable, and even had a brand new "North Stream 2" pipeline ready to go.
But now it seems that with the United States sanctions against Russia, Europe eventually "shot itself in the foot" and became the "stepstone" for the United States to realize its own interests.
Now, winter is coming, Europe is worried about how to survive the cold winter, Russia is worried about how to clean up the mess and reduce losses, while the United States is thinking hard about how to "take chestnuts from the fire" quietly and gain more benefits.
Next, let’s see how the United States, Russia and Europe take action.
