[Editor's Note] This article is authorized by the author. The "Qin'an Strategy" is exclusively original published on the Toutiao platform , and is reprinted from the official account "Kujian Intellectual and Foreign Major". author Wang Gaigai, founder and dean of GDYT, a major diplomatic think tank, .
Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for 200 days. After September, a dramatic scene appeared on the Ukrainian battlefield. In the case of unfavorable counterattack in August, the Ukrainian army suddenly recovered 6,000 square kilometers of lost land in one week, and voices of despising the Russian army were heard everywhere. Western media began to create momentum, cheerfully declared that the Russian army had been defeated. Various rumors are circulating in Chinese domestic media, the most typical of which is the speech that the former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine said, "Russia has been defeated, and China should abandon Russia." A US Democratic think tank in China still reprinted and circulated on its website in a high-profile manner despite the ambassador's refutation of the rumors, forming a typical public opinion war.
However, the real situation of things is not that simple. We can know the real logic after a little analysis. Some domestic analysts who are more pro-US and anti-Russian in the United States believe that the reason why Ukrainian has achieved brilliant results in recent times is because President Zelensky successfully adopted the tactic of "tranquility away from the mountain". He first launched a counterattack on the southern line and transferred the main force of the Russian army to the southern line, resulting in the empty force of the Eastern Line; and then caught the Russian army off guard on the Eastern Line.
In fact, the Russian army did not show the appearance of throwing away his armor, but retreated in an orderly manner. It cannot be said that the Russian army was caught off guard. Putin is looking for better opportunities to concentrate on the offense. This is very similar to the tactics Mao Zedong adopted during the Liaoshen Battle of 1947 to 1948. He first adopted a strategic retreat, and even gave up Yan'an , and then used the domestic contradictions of the US election to create illusions. Finally, he found the right time to successfully fight back, which made Truman , who did not support Chiang Kai-shek, who was unexpectedly re-election, and eventually forced the United States to give up Chiang Kai-shek. After that, we will analyze it in detail.
In essence, this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a contest between Russia and the United States. The factor that really determines the situation on the battlefield is how long the United States wants to persist and how many weapons it wants to provide to Ukraine. In 1948, the United States also had differences in its attitude towards China's civil war: The Republican Party 's Dewey advocated increasing aid to Chiang; Truman of the Democratic Party opposed increasing aid to Chiang, and even advocated abandoning Chiang, supporting the Guangxi warlord Li Zongren as president. The then ambassador to China, Stu Leiden, directly interfered in China's high-level politics and mobilized Li to replace Chiang. Mao Zedong cleverly took advantage of the division within the United States, first creating the illusion of retreat and contraction, and then suddenly launched a counterattack a few days before the 1948 US election.
11947, Mao Zedong gave up many liberated areas and even left Yan'an, adopted the mushroom tactics , and dealt with the enemy in northern Shaanxi. Chiang Kai-shek's media created a public opinion war and advocated that the Communist army "retreat step by step", but he did not know that he had entered the trap arranged by Mao. Mao’s strategy is two aspects. One is to preserve vital forces in the military and do not care about how much territory there is; the other is to carefully observe and understand the internal politics of the United States and create illusions. Mao delayed the time for the main decisive battle on the battlefield, in order to indulge the pro-Chiang forces of the United States and let them advocate that support for Chiang Kai-shek could bring benefits to the Americans. In this case, Chiang believed it and clearly stood on the side of the Republican Party in the United States. Doing so would obviously offend President Truman who was preparing for re-election.
However, just when the US election was about to be held three weeks later, Mao Zedong suddenly ordered the attack on Jinzhou , and took Jinzhou in one week, and then took the entire Northeast in two weeks. Americans are stunned now. November 2 of that year was the end of the Liaoshen Campaign and the Northeast were completely liberated. On the same day, it was just the time for the US election to vote. 48 hours later, Chiang Kai-shek was disappointed when he learned that Truman was re-elected at night.
In fact, Mao had fully met the conditions to annihilate the enemy in the Northeast in June 1948. But if action was taken then, it would definitely be less effective than launching an attack three months later. There was a saying before that Mao was preparing to launch an attack when General Chiang's army retreated from the Northeast to eliminate its vital forces. In fact, Chiang never wanted to withdraw his troops from the Northeast because he believed that Wei Lihuang was fully capable of defending the Northeast. The real factor that affects Mao’s decision-making is actually the internal affairs of the United States.
Russian army still has an absolute advantage
Putin is very clear that the internal affairs of the United States are very fragile. The characteristic of Americans is to change their minds. It will only aid powerful agents, not weak agents. Only when this person can help the United States safeguard its interests will the American people support the government to send him money and weapons. This was the case in 1948 and still the case in 2022.
Although both parties in the United States advocate aid to Ukraine, the Republican and Democratic parties have different determinations. Trump is a very pro-Putin politician who not only admires Putin, but also threatens to withdraw from NATO . After November, it is very likely that the Republicans will win both houses, but Putin hopes that the Democrats will lose more miserably. The Democratic Party’s thinking is to consolidate American leadership by supporting Europe. But the American people are unwilling to give so much to Europe, and they want to see a president who serves the Americans themselves.
Compared with Ukraine, the Russian army still has absolute firepower advantages. The most important thing is that Russia has absolute air supremacy, which is enough to make up for the shortcomings in military strength. At least facing the weak Ukrainian army, it will not reach the level of retreat. The Ukrainian army was not trained enough, was not very good at using Western weapons, and its combat effectiveness was obviously very weak. Moreover, Ukraine almost fought against Russia with all its might, and the mobilization of both sides was not the same magnitude.
From the perspective of the number of troops, Russia definitely has an absolute advantage. Russia has many means, which can not only attack Ukraine's civilian facilities, but also threaten Ukraine's nuclear power plants, and even use the tactical nuclear weapon when necessary. The United States and NATO dare not risk encountering the Russian army directly. It can be compared. In 1948, the United States did not dare to venture into China and encounter directly with the People's Liberation Army. How could the United States dare to enter Ukraine directly with the Russian army with nuclear weapon ?
Interestingly, when the Ukrainian army quickly recovered the lost land, the Russian army retreated while concentrating artillery fire to attack Ukraine's power stations and important infrastructure, and did not concentrate firepower to attack the attacking Ukrainian army, which made people have to doubt Putin's strategy. The Ukrainian army tore a small hole in Kharkov , and in fact, the Russian army could fill its troops immediately.
At present, the Russian army is obviously defending the south and retreating to the east. Whether intentionally or unintentionally, the next battlefield situation is to face the frontal base or fight a position, which is not conducive to the Ukrainian army's small Kuailing's advantage and is more likely to be severely damaged by the powerful artillery fire of the Russian army.
1th month is the key
various signs indicate that for Russia, November is the best offensive opportunity. Now Russia should accumulate strength and preserve its strength.
Unemployment rate and Inflation are already very serious, and Europeans are now in a wait-and-see attitude. The well-known American thinker Fukuyama recently published an article pointing out that the performance of Ukrainian in the battlefield determines the attitude of Europeans. Taking the initiative to quit Europe will not only deal with energy, but also impact the psychology of Europeans. It can be imagined that in such a difficult winter, the anti-war sentiment in Europe will definitely be very high.
Russia's closing of Nord Stream 1 makes the winter recession shrouded over the euro zone an increasingly grim reality. The already high risk of quantitative ration and power outages has increased, and a strong cold current may quickly deplete natural gas reserves.Not all countries will be affected the same: countries that traditionally rely on Russian gas most, including Germany, Italy and Central Europe, face a more severe economic downturn that could put pressure on solidarity. If heating is not available in winter, many factories will stop working, causing a large number of workers to lose their jobs.
Currently, European Far rightism is rising rapidly. Last week, the author visited the National Institute of Strategic Studies at Tsinghua University and talked about the populism issue in European countries. Today, Europe not only faces the energy and economic crisis caused by the Ukrainian war crisis, but also faces the double blow of the appreciation of the US dollar. Europe, which is accelerating its recession, is unlikely to work with the United States to fully support Ukraine. Only by launching a counterattack at any cost can Ukraine continue to support itself, and the same is true for the United States. But Ukraine's army is limited. Even if the weapons are advanced, the number of troops will not be enough. It was precisely because Putin saw this that he decided to carry out a limited retreat in some places.
Although the United States and Europe have imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia, Russia has not suffered economic difficulties until now. Russia's oil revenue is diversified, and India and China are its big buyers. Zelensky just wanted to take a gamble. He knew very well that the situation he was facing and that EU would eventually abandon him. Singing to Russia is obviously a psychological self-comfort, and it may also be a cheering for Europe. Zelensky learned to learn to "burn the boat", but Putin first learned to learn to learn to "do not pursue the enemy with the defeat", and then he will learn to learn to learn to learn to "take the enemy with the remaining courage to pursue the enemy with the defeat."
At present, it seems that Donbass is not in a hurry to liberation. The Donbas armed forces must assume more responsibility for self-protection, while the southern Nikolayev must be taken down, which is related to the siege of Odessa and the security of Crimea . The current situation does not mean that the Ukrainian army's combat power has been greatly improved, nor does it mean that the Russian army will retreat, but that Putin is re-arranging. The longer the Ukrainian army fought, the more territory it would split out.
Biden 's nightmare is coming
Ukrainian war has diverted the attention of the American people and increased the Democratic Party's ability to manipulate various agendas. Biden's initial plan was to change the adverse situation facing the Democratic Party in the midterm elections through this war, which could repair the image of an incompetent president since the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan. The current situation in the United States is a bit like 1939-1941. Before the outbreak of Pearl Harbor, the United States made a fortune in war. When the war broke out in February, Biden believed that half a year would be effective and would help the Democratic midterm elections. In fact, it seems that's not the case now.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, many Americans believed that Russia would definitely fail. Russia's attack on Ukraine has made the Western world unite in hatred of the enemy, and the US's domestic support for Trump has dropped significantly. The Ukrainian war will also affect the balance of power within the Republican Party, and the anti-Trump power has once been strengthened. But as the war continued, Americans began to become tired. Therefore, in the recent Republican midterm nomination station, most of Trump-supported politicians won the nomination, and Trump's political influence within the Republican Party has been consolidated. Republican politicians who support the fight against Russia will have to shut up. American voters attach great importance to the self-interest of the United States, which is similar to the fact that Mao Zedong had just won the Liaoshen Campaign in 1948, and voters completely lost confidence in Chiang Kai-shek. Dewey, who was originally far ahead, lost a lot.
It is foreseeable that from November, Putin will launch a strong offensive, and it is not ruled out that various means will be used. The key is to make the people of European and American countries unable to see hope, which will in turn affect the government decisions of these countries. Although nearly 80% of Russia's people support this war, for now, Russia has not mobilized the whole nation at all. The main body of fighting in Ukraine is still professional soldiers, not recruited soldiers.Moscow is bustling with traffic, and the market's prosperity seems to be still the same. The ruble exchange rate against the US dollar has rebounded to its highest level since 2018, and the inflation rate and the shrinking rate of GDP are both lower than expected in April. The economic pain caused by the Ukrainian war has not yet been passed on to the Russian people.
China should look at the situation and make plans for
Russia's performance in the war will directly concern China's interests. According to the analysis of an authoritative professor in Taiwan, the United States is creating an atmosphere of the People's Liberation Army's eagerness to reunify the military, which will easily win the trust of the allies. The US's abacus has caused the conflict between mainland China and Taiwan to continue for a long time. The United States also supplies weapons to Ukraine and Taiwan; The US CIA trains Ukraine to fight street fighting, and now it is constantly pressuring Taiwan to step up its mobilization of people to train street fighting capabilities.
There are still some people in China who like to hype Putin's coup. In fact, Putin's approval rating is as high as 80%. Even if Putin stepped down, his successor was more likely to be a tough nationalist than a liberal. The loudest call in Russia is now from nationalists - they call for the escalation of the war. It is entirely possible that Ukraine will disappear from the map, but Russia will not disappear from the map. It will still have a large number of nuclear weapons, and also a huge team of young people as reserve members.
Biden induced Russia at the beginning and forced it to send troops. In fact, his plan failed. After the November election, pro-Russia forces in the United States will increase significantly, and there will be a strong check and balance against Biden in Congress. For Russia, its enemy is not Ukraine, but the Biden administration of the United States. As long as Trump controls both houses, it will be difficult for Biden to allocate funds to Ukraine. Therefore, Putin is accumulating strength and will surely win in November. In short, Russia cannot fail. China must grasp the direction of the war and make wise choices in a timely manner.
