Germany's largest bank - Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Seven said that the engine of European economic development will fall into recession. The engine mentioned here refers to Germany. Germany is the most developed country in Europe. Thanks to Germany's economic advantages, many European countries are very dependent on Germany's economy. Once Germany falls into recession, it will inevitably affect other European allies. .
Shiwan pointed out that the Russian-Ukrainian war destroyed some certainty, which is the basis for the operation of global economic system over the past few decades. Including supply chain, labor market, natural gas and electricity shortages, these are key factors that have led to the euro zone inflation at an all-time high.
Based on this, West Van believes that Germany's economic recession is inevitable, even if Germany has enough resilience to deal with the recession.
Then, West Vancouver changed its tone and suddenly mentioned China, urging the German authorities to speed up the decoupling from China because the German economy is too dependent on China - China accounts for about 8% of Germany's exports and about 12% of imports. Fundamental changes are needed.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, what Germany has been doing is to decouple from Russia, mainly reflected in the energy field. Germany has been trying to get rid of its energy dependence on Russia. This is also the main reason for the high inflation in Germany. The high energy prices have led to a surge in electricity prices, making Germany, a major industrial power, miserable.
But even so, Germany still ignored the interests of the German people and forced to decouple from Russia. At the same time, some hawkish politicians in Germany began to advocate decoupling from China. Under the pressure of the United States, even Scholz also expressed his desire to reduce his dependence on China. Over time, the voice of decoupling from China has become louder and louder within Germany.
Although Germany has not taken any specific actions yet, judging from the division of the authorities in Scholz and his own ability to withstand pressure, it is not ruled out that Germany will take the initiative to promote decoupling from China in the future.
One of the main reasons Germany can become Europe's economic engine is that Germany has been increasing its cooperation with China because China is the global economic engine. Driven by China, Germany's economy has made great progress, allowing Germany to still have a lot of say in EU without military advantages.
If Germany has no economic advantage, its status in the EU will also decline. Taking the initiative to decouple from China means that Germany is actively giving up its economic advantages. As a defeated country with limited military strength, Germany's status in G7 Group and even internationally will be affected.
When Scholz came to power, Germany was in a much better situation than it is now. At that time, Merkel , under the pressure of sanctions, built the "North Stream 2" pipeline, and waited for Scholz to take office and directly ventilated. As a result, after Scholz took office, he repeatedly asked for trouble for Russia and stopped the The approval of Nord Stream 2" has now completely broken down.
In the Merkel era, Germany's direction was very clear. Relying on Russia's energy, it became the energy center of the EU, and relying on China's economic strength, it became the economic center of the EU. With Merkel's promotion, the big framework was established and detailed cooperation was achieved. Scholz just needs to follow the general direction set by Merkel.
As a result, Scholz played a good hand and gave in. The United States gave in as soon as it was put in a slight pressure. Not only did it break up with Russia, but now it has shifted its strategic focus to Asia and began to plan to decouple China in advance, even if the economy is in progress. Recession is also spared.
The biggest difference between Germany in the Scholz era and Germany in the Merkel era is that it has no autonomy. Through cooperation with China and Russia, Merkel has made Germany more and more independent. The arrival of Scholz It ruined Merkel's efforts for more than ten years, making Germany once again a country that relies on the United States and acts according to the United States' expression. How can such a country lead the EU?
