The situation on the battlefield is changing rapidly, and this sentence is really not a joke-yesterday, Ukraine , which was still clamoring for a fierce battle in Lisichansk , suddenly changed the subject today and directly stated that it would withdraw from the battle.
On July 3, local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the Ukrainian military command had confirmed that it would lead the troops to withdraw from the city of Lischichansk.
The reason given by Ukraine is that the Russian army has certain advantages in equipment and numbers. Continuing to defend will only lead to tragic consequences. In order to avoid unnecessary losses, we chose to retreat tactically.
Zelensky later said that when modern equipment is ready, the Ukrainian army will regain control with the rocket launcher system provided by the United States.
No matter how is, at least now with the fall of Lisichansk, the entire Luhansk region can be said to have fallen into the hands of Russia. At this point, the second phase of Russia’s special military operation can be described as a great success.
However, the war is far from over , and Russia's situation is by no means one of peace of mind . By carefully analyzing the next developments of both parties, we may find some clues:
The first is Russia. Russia's next plan is already known to the world, which is to capture the Donetsk region and completely control the entire Donbass region.
For this goal, the Russian army is working non-stop. The war here has just ended, and the battle there has been seamlessly connected.
On July 3, local time, Russia's Luhansk Armed Forces stated that the battle for the city of Seversk in the Donetsk region has begun, and the Russian army is advancing here at full speed.
Subsequently, the Ukrainian media also released news that the city of Slavyansk in the Donetsk region suffered a large-scale shelling from Russia on July 3.
I have to say that Russia really doesn’t give Ukraine a chance to breathe, but is there any hidden danger behind this extreme speed? Yes, and it's not small.
It can be seen from Russia's full-speed advancement that Russia hopes to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine quickly and fully control the eastern Ukraine region. This means that Russia may have sensed the crisis behind this.
Moreover, in conjunction with Ukraine's raid on the Russian mainland, Finland is about to deploy a NATO military base and Lithuania blockade Kaliningrad . There are various signs that Russia is facing a lot of pressure, so Russia is eager to end this war quickly and free up its hands to do other things.
Then there is the Ukrainian side. With the loss of the Lugansk region, Ukraine's pressure is increasing sharply. Whether it is territory or morale, it is in urgent need of a counterattack to ease it.
But this is difficult. Let’s think about the actions that Ukraine may take next. The author believes that there are two main points:
First, increase the attacks on Russia itself. With the invasion of Belgodero by , it means that Ukraine has the ability to attack the Russian mainland. This kind of thing has only happened zero and countless times.
Therefore, Ukraine should frequently attack the Russian mainland in the future, but the cost is huge, that is, Russia's counterattack and retaliation.
Second, promote from the Black Sea. According to Zelensky’s speech, we can know that Ukraine is planning to promote from Kharkiv , Kherson and Black Sea sea. The first two will not be analyzed because Ukraine counterattacks from these two places every day.
now has another one at sea. I personally guess this is because Russia gave up Snake Island a few days ago, giving Ukraine an opportunity to advance from the sea.
The reason why Russia gave up Snake Island was to ease the conflict in food transportation, but forget this statement. The most critical factor is that Snake Island has a very low strategic position for Russia, and it is covered by Ukrainian artillery fire. The cost of guarding this place is not proportional to the benefits.
Now that Ukraine has occupied this island, it hopes to use it as a fulcrum to launch a counterattack against Russia from the sea. But Ukraine can attack Snake Island, and so can Russia. How can such an unstable fulcrum support Ukraine's counterattack plan?
Taken together, Russia hopes for a quick victory and Ukraine hopes to counterattack. However, both have their own difficulties. It depends on who can open the situation first.
