The battle between the two old people continues...
"Life is an endless struggle". It is really appropriate to use this sentence to describe these two old people in beautiful country . One is 80 years old and the other is 76 years old, and is still fighting for every vote.
Recently, everyone has focused on personnel changes in the country, and may have overlooked it. On the other side of the Pacific, the world's most powerful countries are in a battle that may change their ZZ pattern - the midterm election.
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Midterm election, the ultimate battle of Congress
On November 8, 2022, the beautiful country will hold the midterm elections. A beautiful country is established with three powers, judicial power - executive power - legislative power, among which judicial power comes from the Supreme Court and the Supreme Justice, and the executive power comes from the beautiful government, mainly the president of the beautiful country and his cabinet. The main holder of legislative power is Congress, covering the House of Representatives and the Senate we often hear about.
Source: Public Information
Beautiful President will hold elections every four years, and in the second year of the presidential term, a major re-election of Congress will be held, generally called "midterm elections", and all seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be re-election. Whoever wins can control Congress.
p.s. The midterm elections also include many local elections, which have a huge impact on local areas, but they have little impact on the overall governance direction and international relations. Yutou will not tell too much about it.
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Presidential election outpost - midterm election
How important is the midterm election? Yutou believes that it can be interpreted from two aspects:
First of all, in addition to the most important legislative power, Congress also has the right to amend the constitution, appropriation rights, recall rights and some military powers. The "impeachment of the president" that everyone often heard during his tenure as a special master was one of the powers of Congress; in addition, the review of budget (money) is also the power of Congress.
Simply put, although the president of a beautiful country has great power, if there is no support from Congress, he will be restrained in his governance. It is also what we commonly call the "lame duck president". Therefore, the two parties are also working hard to compete for every Congress seat.
Secondly, Yutou also called this year's midterm elections "Presidential Outpost Battle". It has been two years since I took office. At present, the overall governance situation seems to be not ideal, mainly the inflation problem, which has made the people score a very low score on his economic policies. Although after July, relying on the "anti-abortion card", " interest rate hike anti-inflation card" and "eagle rabbit battle card", the current support level is only 43%, which is a world-class difference from his reputation when he was elected.
Source: Caixin.com
If the midterm election is defeated, it may also affect Mr. Bai's reputation in the Democratic Party, and may even be unable to win the nomination in the 2024 presidential election. After all, the Republican opponent they are most likely to face in 2024 is still the election expert - Trump .
Source: Realclearpolitics
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Can the day change after the midterm elections?
The current Democratic and Republican seats are 50 to 50 among the 100 seats in the Senate (Democrats can use the vice president's voting rights, so they have an advantage), and the number of seats re-elected this time is 35; of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the Democrats account for 220 seats, the Republicans account for 210 seats, and 5 seats are vacant, and all seats in the House of Representatives need to be re-elected.
From the current poll, the market generally believes that the Republicans have a greater advantage in the House of Representatives. The market believes that the Republicans have basically locked 214 seats in the House of Representatives, and the Democrats have locked 191 seats. The Republicans only need to win 8 seats from the Democrats in the midterm elections to get the House of Representatives. According to fivethirtyeight's poll forecast, the current Republican victory rate in the House of Representatives is as high as more than 80%.
Of course, this also conforms to historical laws. Generally speaking, the ruling party will lose the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. Yutou does not explain too much about this phenomenon. However, based on the historical laws and Mr. Bai's current weak support, the Democrats seem to be in danger in the House of Representatives.
Source: fivethirtyeight
The Senate is quite stalemate. Judging from the 35 seats currently re-elected, there are 14 Democrats and 21 Republicans. According to fivethirtyeight's poll forecast, the Democrats still have a very weak lead in the Senate, with a winning rate of around 53%.
Source: fivethirtyeight
Overall, the Democratic Party, who mastered both the White House and the Congress in the past two years, has a high probability of losing at least one house in Congress. It can be foreseen that Mr. Bai will have greater resistance in his governance for the remaining two years.
Source: Yutou sorting
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How to change the beautiful country after the midterm elections?
As mentioned above, after the midterm elections, the congressional structure of the beautiful country will most likely usher in changes, and Mr. Bai will be faced with greater challenges in his governance in the future.
For beautiful domestic, Yutou believes that there are two things that will change significantly:
First of all, it is the emergence of a financial deadlock. Since the two parties took office, the degree of differences and struggles between the two parties have continued to increase. Now it can be described as "the momentum is like water and fire". Cooperation is a very low-probability event. If the Democrats cannot fully rule, policies introduced during their tenure such as the "Inflation Reduction Act" and the "Student Loan Plan" subsidies, and even future policy implementation, may be constrained. If the Republican Party obtains control of the two houses at the same time, it will inevitably lead to a more difficult deadlock in the finances.
Second, it is a change in the Federal Reserve's policy. This part of the fish head has mentioned it many times in the past. Part of the reason for the strong tightening of the Federal Reserve's strong tightening is due to the need for election situations. After the election, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will likely slow down. Of course, what is more related to the midterm elections is that next year, the economy of beautiful countries will be very poor and even fall into recession. If the fiscal deadlock mentioned by Yutou appears, it will inevitably be greater for the economy, and it may also accelerate the Fed's slowdown in rate hikes, and even the possibility of interest rate cuts.
Source: IMF
Outwardly, the two parties have different aspects:
First of all, the two parties have different attitudes towards the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. At present, beautiful countries provide more military support and economic aid from Ukraine, while the Republican Party is unwilling to spend too much elsewhere. If the Republican Party controls the Congress, it may limit the assistance of beautiful countries to Ukraine, resulting in changes in the conflict situation.
Secondly, the fish head doesn’t think it will change, but what everyone is very concerned about is the relationship between the eagle and the rabbit. The current hawkish attitude towards Tujiang is a rare and rare consensus between the two parties, and it can even be said to be the public opinion of a beautiful country. According to the latest survey by Pew Research Center, more than 89% of the respondents have regarded Tujiang as a competitor rather than a partner. This is also why the recent frequent actions of Mr. Ju have been, mainly because of the vote considerations in the midterm elections.
Fish Head guesses that after the midterm elections, there may be some slowdown in actions and more opportunities for communication. However, it is probably difficult to go back to the past relationship that focuses on cooperation. It is even foreseeable that before the beautiful presidential election in 2024, the relationship between the two sides will be copied again...
Like you, the stocks have all hit the daily limit~
