The world situation often affects the whole world. A casual detail may cause an uproar.
There is no doubt that the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become a major event that has profoundly changed the evolution of the international landscape. The world situation is also facing more variables and turbulence.
html On the last day of June, the international situation ushered in two new trends closely related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Trend 1: The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to spread, Ukraine and Syria have "broken off diplomatic relations".
html On the 30th, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy announced that Ukraine would terminate diplomatic relations with Syria, saying "there will no longer be relations between the two countries." also announced that it would increase sanctions on Syria.As for the trigger of the "severance of diplomatic relations", the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on the 29th that recognized the "independent" status of two places in Ukraine and eastern Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk .
As we all know, the chaos in eastern Ukraine is one of the main triggers that led to the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Putin also signed a document formally recognizing the "independence" of Ukraine and eastern Ukraine.
Therefore, now that Syria has suddenly announced the news, it will naturally be regarded as an "opponent" by Ukraine, and it is not surprising to announce the "breakoff of diplomatic relations".
But the problem is that although Syria has a close relationship with Russia, and after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Syria is indeed one of the few countries in the world that continues to support Russia; but without warning, Syria suddenly announced that it recognized Ukraine and Eastern Russia. "Independence", it quite a bit means that is "looking for trouble" . Secondly, was "blacklisted" by Ukraine. The most important thing is that Syria is likely to become a target of the West.
So, is there any other secret behind Syria’s sudden announcement? Among these, has at least 2 things to pay attention to.
The first thing is that on the 29th, when Putin visited Turkmenistan , he met with Iranian President Raisi on the situation in Syria.
Putin said that Russia and Iran have maintained in-depth cooperation and interaction on security issues and Syria. Leahy said that Iran hopes to hold a summit on Syria with Russia and Turkey in Tehran as soon as possible. He also stressed that security concerns about Syria must be permanently resolved as soon as possible.
In other words, this meeting between the Russian and Iranian presidents not only talked about the situation in Syria, but also promoted the situation in Syria to develop in a peaceful and positive direction.
The second incident, also on the 29th, , Russia prepared a statement about "condemning the Israeli air strikes on the Syrian capital" , and prepared to submit it to the United Nations Security Council for review and release, but it was blocked by the United States, Britain and other Western countries. This resulted in the matter falling through.
It is not difficult to analyze three points from this:
Russia is indeed interested in Syria. Whether it is Putin's foreign visit or Russia's activities in the United Nations , it has not forgotten its concern for the situation in Syria. Syria must have seen it. , also keep in mind, it is not surprising to take action to express support for Russia or to "reciprocate".
Syrian President Assad
. The West blocked Russia’s statement condemning Israel at the Security Council . It is estimated that Syria is also holding its breath. On the one hand, Syria is the victim of unprovoked air strikes; on the other hand, Russia stood up for Syria, but was blocked by the West. Naturally, Syria couldn't stand it. It used the method of recognizing the "independence" of Ukraine and East to put pressure on Ukraine in disguise. It may also have the intention of putting pressure on the West.
3 Whether Syria puts pressure on Ukraine or Ukraine "cuts off diplomatic relations" with Syria , it will undoubtedly deepen the complexity and tension of the current situation between Russia and Ukraine.
In particular, the development of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine into a contest between Russia and the West, and now the conflict between Ukraine and Syria, are the main manifestations of the profound changes in the international situation caused by this war.
However, such "reflections" exist not only between Ukraine and Syria, but also between the United States and Iran.
Iranian President Raisi
Movement 2: The Iranian nuclear negotiations have reached a deadlock again, and Iran has given the United States another "power down". On the 29th, representatives of the United States, Iran and the European Union held intense negotiations on the "Iran Nuclear Agreement" in Doha, the capital of Qatar, but in the end they failed to achieve the progress expected by the EU representatives as mediators.
To put it bluntly, there is no agreement, and the negotiations that have just been restarted are showing a tendency to reach a deadlock again.
As for the "crux" of the negotiations, Iran requires the United States to lift all sanctions against Iran and ensure that it will not withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement again. The United States refuses to compromise, and the negotiations will naturally not proceed.
Moreover, Iran has a very tough attitude this time, saying that it "will never give in on the bottom line issue."
It should be noted that since the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, the United States has restarted its maximum pressure strategy on Iran, and even used military means for a time, but it has never been able to make Iran surrender.
After Biden came to power, the United States wanted to return to the nuclear agreement and asked Iran to stop and destroy all current nuclear development results. Then Tehran issued a condition- The United States must lift all sanctions against Iran. Among them, the sanctions originally imposed by the Trump administration were only part of it.
However, canceling the "maximum pressure" policy of the Trump administration would have meant the "failure" of the U.S. policy toward Iran; now that all sanctions have to be lifted, is tantamount to highlighting the "failure" of the United States. , announcing to the outside world that American hegemony is "in name only" and has become the essence of a "paper tiger". Biden is naturally unwilling to do so.
Therefore, the Iran nuclear negotiations have been on and off since the end of last year, and were directly "suspended" at the beginning of this year. It was not until the 26th of this month that the EU High Representative for Diplomacy and Security Borrell visited Tehran to act as a "mediator". Iran resumes negotiations with the United States.
Today, negotiations have resumed, but there is still no progress, which is equivalent to "standing still."
Moreover, what is different today is that Iran continues to show strength towards the United States at this time and insists on asking the United States to lift all sanctions. In fact, it also poses a huge problem for Biden.
As soon as comes, Biden will visit the Middle East in mid-July. This will be his first trip to the Middle East in the past two years since he took office. The White House naturally wants to take it seriously, and it is best for Biden to gain "in the Middle East." "A big achievement" and returned with a full load to prepare for this year's congressional midterm elections.
The successful negotiation between the United States and Iran and the return of the United States to the "Iran Nuclear Agreement" are undoubtedly the major events that best highlight Biden's "contribution". But now, with Iran taking a tough stance and refusing to compromise, the White House's plan may also come to naught.
Secondly, Iran's nuclear development process has reached a "critical stage", and it is actually only one step away from "nuclear possession".
In addition, Iran launched the domestically produced launch vehicle "Zuljana" at a high level a few days ago, which alarmed the United States. It was once believed that this was a prelude to Iran's preparations to develop ballistic missile , and it was also a warning to the United States and Europe. A "disgrace".
Therefore, when Iran successively plays its nuclear trump card and test-fires launch vehicles, Europe is very nervous and hopes that the United States and Iran can successfully negotiate quickly, restore the Iran nuclear agreement, and prevent Iran from making more dangerous and threatening actions.
Invisibly, the EU is also putting pressure on the United States. And this is one of the reasons why the EU serves as the "mediator" of this negotiation.
Thirdly, unlike "moderates" like former Iranian President Rouhani, current Iranian President Raisi is an obvious hardliner on the United States. will never compromise easily with the United States before specific demands are resolved.
Interestingly, Leahy and Putin held a meeting on the 29th, and the two probably also talked about the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Although the content of the negotiations between the two is not yet clear, Russia has already expressed its attitude towards the negotiations - supports Iran in defending its own interests.
This means that it is very unrealistic and unachievable for the United States to force Iran to compromise by applying pressure or continuing to impose sanctions.
At present, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are still continuing. Next, let’s see how the United States will respond to Iran’s problems.
