Biden has repeatedly announced that the United States will not directly intervene in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, saying that it is worried about triggering World War III. Many people believe it. And I say, many people have been fooled! Can you believe what American politicians say? cannot! Just listen the other way round.
First, the United States is not worried about triggering a third world war.
Some people conclude that the United States is worried that it cannot afford a nuclear strike , so it is afraid of triggering a third world war. This obviously underestimates the madness of the big capital interest groups behind the U.S. government, and makes the mistake of "thinking too well of the United States." You must know that the comprehensive military strength of the United States exceeds that of Russia. It is the first country to build a global anti-missile system. The United States has already taken precautions against possible nuclear strikes on the United States. This one. Secondly, the United States is the actuary of war costs. Even if it wants to launch a nuclear war, it will let Russia take the first step. In this way, Russia will be nailed to the bottom of morality, giving the United States more sufficient reasons to mobilize its allies to attack Russia.
Third, the United States is confident that through its strategic planning, even if Russia wants to carry out a preemptive nuclear strike, the United States will not be the first target to be struck. Usually nuclear bombs are most likely to appear in hot war areas. Recently, some Russian congressmen claimed that the first nuclear strike target would be London, which further confirmed the precise calculation of the United States. Therefore, once the U.S. government believes that it has absolute certainty, it will not mind triggering the Third World War by triggering a fire. We should not have any illusions about this and must be extremely vigilant.
Secondly, Europe may have a second Ukraine
Recently, two NATO countries want to take advantage of the situation. One is Poland , the other is Lithuania . Poland has always coveted the western region of Ukraine, especially Lviv, which was Poland's former homeland. After all, in the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Poland had already made a request to NATO, hoping to send troops into Ukraine. The Lithuanian government recently cut off the land channel for transporting goods from Russia's Economic Lithuania to Kaliningrad Oblast, which has triggered a strong reaction from Russia. If these two NATO members offend Russia and conflict, then other NATO countries will be obliged to send troops to "protect" Poland and Lithuania. At this time, a direct conflict between NATO and Russia will be inevitable. What should the United States do? Continue to deal with the Ukrainian model and turn Poland or Lithuania into a second Ukraine? Or directly confront Russia? This is the greatest uncertainty about the future.
Thirdly, the UK has different ideas from the EU
The leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Romania visited Kiev. They obviously wanted to cheer up Zelensky and offered Ukraine EU membership candidate status, but secretly they wanted to give Zelensky Lensky put pressure on him to trade land for peace. British Prime Minister Johnson hurriedly went to add fuel to the fire, expressing his continued support for Ukraine's deadly fight with Russia. He proposed a massive program of professional military training. Johnson emphasized that with this plan, the Ukrainian people's confidence in winning will be greatly enhanced, thereby changing the balance of the entire battlefield. The British "Independent" reported on the 25th that Andrei Gurulev, a member of the Russian Federation's State Duma Defense Committee, made a public statement: If World War III breaks out, London will be the first NATO strategic target targeted by Russian missiles. This statement is not groundless and has something to do with Johnson's promise to Kiev.
Fourth, the Russia-Ukraine crisis may intensify after the two summits.
The NATO summit will follow the G7 summit. The United States will continue to force its allies to support Ukraine in fighting Russia. This is an important goal for the United States to achieve through these two summits. There are rumors on the Internet that the United States intends to shut down the flames, which is a smokescreen released by the Biden administration. The U.S. government's intention is to push its allies to the front line while it continues to control the second line from a distance. It does not want to stop this conflict. Therefore, the Russia-Ukraine crisis will not ease but may intensify after the two summits. If Ukraine uses retreat to advance and realizes the NATO-oriented military weapons, and if the United Kingdom and other countries achieve initial results in training Ukrainian soldiers, Ukraine's counterattack will become stronger. By then, the pressure on Russia will increase.It is difficult to say whether the United States will tolerate Russia's occupation of the entire eastern Ukraine and parts of southern Ukraine. It is not that the United States will take back land for Ukraine, but that if Russia achieves all the goals of the special military operation, it will have a negative impact on the "world leadership" of the United States. It is too destructive and European allies will lose confidence in the United States.
Fifth, the United States has other intentions in exerting pressure on China.
At the time of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the pressure on China by the United States has not decreased but increased. Our usual understanding is that the US government shows the world that the United States is capable of confronting China and Russia at the same time. From another perspective, the main purpose of the United States may be to forcefully prevent China from supporting Russia. From the perspective of the United States, no matter how extreme sanctions the United States imposes on Russia, as long as Russia has China's support, Russia's economy will not collapse, and the effect of U.S. sanctions on Russia will be greatly reduced or even reduced to zero.
Senior officials at all levels of the U.S. government have repeatedly put pressure on China, saying that if China supports Russia, it will bear huge consequences. Even if the United States wants to encircle and suppress China, the best time is after it crushes Russia, not before. According to Biden's calculations, once Russia is crushed, NATO's eastward expansion to China's northern border will be like searching for something. Japan, South Korea and Australia will cooperate with NATO's actions, and a complete encirclement circle to encircle and suppress China will naturally be formed. Crushing Russia and encircling China are so closely related. For this reason, the United States will really not give up until it achieves its goal of crushing Russia, so triggering a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is not an impossible option.
This is indeed the last madness of the big American capital interest groups. We say that the world has come to a crossroads. The United States understands this sentence as whether the United States' hegemony can be sustained and expanded depends on this. Now that Russia has been forced into the situation, how can we not finish our work in one battle, first defeat Russia and then encircle and suppress China, and once and for all relieve the "worries" of US hegemony?
I say that the danger of World War III is looming because of these uncertainties. This may be one of many possible scenarios for the evolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. China's task is to prevent the situation between Russia and Ukraine from developing in the most dangerous direction and to curb the United States' strategic impulse to trigger World War III.
What should I do in China? China's approach should be:
First, promote peace talks in a high-profile manner
There are two levels of peace talks here. One is to promote peace talks with Russia and Ukraine. The second is to encourage peace talks between the United States and Russia. The tone of both efforts to persuade peace and promote talks must be high. The first is China's necessary political attitude. China cannot support Russia in taking away Ukrainian land. Russia's special military operations only need to achieve the goals of demilitarization and denazification. It doesn't matter whether Russia listens or not. China must persuade, and Russia will understand. The second is an international status that China should strive for. China has repeatedly stated that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is essentially a conflict between Russia and the United States, and Ukraine is only an agent of the United States. The United States is secretly backing fire, but openly can only call for a truce. Then China seizes on the United States' "truce call" to call for peace talks between Russia and the United States, and explicitly states that China can be the mediator in Russia-U.S. relations. Whether or not the United States agrees with China taking this role is not important. The key is that China should let the world know that China is willing and able to be a mediator in Russia-U.S. relations. The international influence generated by China's attitude has a positive role in restricting the US government from triggering World War III.
Second, the United States will never be prepared.
If the United States wants to destroy China, it needs two conditions: first, Russia collapses, and NATO reaches China’s doorstep; second, someone wants to be the “Ukraine of Asia,” and the United States is lucky in China. Copy the "Russian-Ukrainian model". The United States is afraid that China will support Russia, so China will support Russia. If Russia does not collapse, NATO will not be able to reach China's northern border. If the United States wants to build an Asian Ukraine, its first choice must be the Taiwan authorities. But the United States must first solve a problem called "internationalization of the Taiwan issue." China is determined not to ask the United States to do this if it has the conditions. If it fails, the first candidate for the "Asian Ukraine" for the United States is Japan, followed by South Korea. China must find a way to make it impossible for these two countries. In this way, the conditions for the United States to encircle and suppress China will never be well prepared.The more China develops, the less ready the United States will be until China becomes so powerful that the United States will no longer have the opportunity to encircle and suppress China. In this way, the United States will have no chance to trigger World War III.
Third, you hit yours and I'll hit mine
The previous two moves also mean dancing with the magic wand of America. China's more clever trick is that you hit yours and I hit mine. I wrote an article on the 26th, "Big Deal!" High-level Dialogue on Global Development, Planning for Common Wealth in the World" highly praised the "BRICS ➕" Summit and High-level Dialogue on Global Development. The article compares this dialogue with the upcoming G7 summit and NATO summit of Western forces represented by the United States. The conclusion is that the contrast is very sharp-the theme of the dialogue here is "global development" and the implementation of the United Nations agenda; and that What I am thinking about is how to continue to use Ukraine to bring down Russia, how to make Europe willingly commit suicide, and how to create an Indo-Pacific encirclement to encircle and suppress China.
is planning for global common prosperity, and is planning to continue to dominate the world. One side is working hard to maintain and consolidate peace, while the other side is racking its brains to create and expand world turmoil. One side is drawing up a list to implement the United Nations 2023 agenda, and the other side is drawing up a pie to counter China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative. On the issue, China can carry out such activities frequently. As long as it can unite developing countries to form a united front against US hegemony, it can restrain the US government's impulse to trigger World War III to the greatest extent.
Fourth, actively promote "world denuclearization"
I remember that the five permanent members of the United Nations issued a joint statement. The core message is that " a nuclear war cannot be fought and cannot be won." The "BRICS Summit" also advocated "world denuclearization", and the wave of "world denuclearization" is rising. What China needs to do is to work with the United Nations, the "BRICS" and other international organizations to guide "world denuclearization" in the right direction, so that it will not be used by countries with ulterior motives like Japan. Forming "world denuclearization" into an international trend can also effectively curb the United States' impulse to trigger a nuclear war. It is in the interest of all countries, including developing countries, to realize a "nuclear-free world" by promoting the "world denuclearization" movement. But when promoting "a world without nuclear weapons", don't forget to also promote "a world without biological and chemical weapons." The United States is the only country that retains and continues to develop biological and chemical weapons , so promoting "a world without biological and chemical weapons" is more targeted. , it will be more obvious to restrain the United States' impulse to trigger World War III.
Fifth, China must be prepared.
The possibility of World War III depends to a certain extent on the resoluteness of our struggle. If the vast majority of developing countries continue to be tolerant, the hegemonic forces represented by the United States will become even more arrogant, and the Third World War may indeed be inevitable. China needs to be prepared, that is, to accurately measure how likely it is that the United States will use the Russia-Ukraine conflict to trigger World War III, and how likely it is that the struggle to suppress war, with developing countries as the main force, will prevent the occurrence of war. To what extent should China prepare for this, it can most effectively promote the enhancement of China's comprehensive national strength and the improvement of people's living standards. China must calm down, conduct careful research and take serious actions. Forewarned is forearmed, without prejudging the waste. As long as China is well prepared, even if World War III is triggered, China can respond calmly and remain invincible.
To sum it up, don’t have any illusions about the United States. The United States has done too many deceptive things. The more it swears no, the more careful we must be. Never make the mistake of "thinking too well of the U.S. government" again!
Note: The author of this article is Mou Lin, a core member of the "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank". It is an original work for this platform. In the new year, I wish everyone can join hands to defeat the epidemic, curb hegemony, and move towards a better future together.
