Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Western countries have begun to impose blockades and sanctions on Russia. The sanctions have caused the Russian economy to be in trouble, but Western countries are not having a hard time either. As time goes by, Western countries would rather lose 1,000 to themselves than kill the enemy. 800, began to continue to expand sanctions against Russia, freeze Russian assets, and even refuse to import Russian crude oil.
In this case, Russian President Putin quickly signed a decree, stating in the form of legislation that rubles would be used to repay Western debts. If Western countries do not agree, then Russia will treat it as a severance of diplomatic relations. It is worth noting that although Russia has always used rubles to repay its debts, after four months of the Russia-Ukraine war, it finally used rubles to repay its debts for the first time. This reveals three pieces of information.
The first message is that using rubles to pay off debts is Putin’s punch against the West.
First of all, we have to explain that Russia is not without money. It has the ability to repay Western debts. Even if it is subject to large-scale sanctions from the West, Russia currently has nearly 600 billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves. It uses these foreign exchanges to It can be said that it is more than enough to pay off the debt.
However, the West is currently imposing large-scale sanctions on Russia. In this context, the intersection between Russia and the West can be said to be less and less. Although it is natural to repay debts, this debt is also a counter-sanction by Russia. If the West is directly repaid, Russia will not only lose a sum of money, but also lose a constraint on the West.
Another important reason is that the West has frozen and seized a large number of Russian assets. Russia also has huge assets overseas, and Russian citizens even have assets in foreign accounts. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the West blocked it all For these properties, Russia's money cannot be recovered at all if its money is seized, so it cannot repay its debts to the West in a timely manner.
In this way, Russia originally wanted to repay the money, but its assets have been seized. Ukraine is still clamoring to use Russian assets to help Ukraine rebuild. How dare Russia directly repay the debt? You must know that Russia has a large number of seized assets. While seizing Russian assets and asking Russia to repay its debts, this is obviously problematic. No wonder Putin uses rubles to repay the money.
The second message is that the West is frantically freezing Russian assets, sanctioning Russian energy, and even forcing Russia to pay off its debts. The only purpose is to force Russia into a debt crisis and be unable to extricate itself. In this way, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian military must defeat.
Under the long-term confrontational blockade by the West, Russia's economy has not been very good. It is relatively closed and financially stretched. Because of this, although Russia is also called a big country, due to its weak economy, it is only Stay ahead of the curve in several areas. The most important thing is the military industry, followed by the energy industry, and then agriculture. The Soviet Union once wanted to design and develop a satellite system, named GLONASS . Due to financial constraints, it actually took nearly half a century to complete the project. Finish.
At present, Russia’s expenditure is no less than the expenditure on satellite research and development. Nearly 200,000 Russian troops are active in the Ukrainian battlefield, spending a lot of money every day. In this case, a debt crisis is most likely to break out. As long as Russia has a debt crisis, then Russia will They will be dragged down by the war.
Although the West is reducing its energy imports from Russia, Russia exports a large amount of oil to Asian countries. Oil trade is the basis for the Russian army to fight. As long as Russia continues to export oil, the Russian army will continue to fight. confidence. Western countries just want Russia to fall into a debt crisis, so Russia will lose without a fight before the Ukrainian army counterattacks.
The third message is that the Russian ruble is currently facing potential risks. The Russian economy is already somewhat weak. After encountering Western sanctions this time, the domestic currency began to experience inflation . Once there is a problem with the ruble, the Russian military will If you don't fight, you will be defeated.
In order to avoid an economic crisis, Russia began to take a series of measures to prevent the ruble from continuing to depreciate. The first thing it did was to localize private enterprises and anchor the ruble to its own industrial production to keep the ruble strong, but this was not enough. In order to keep the ruble strong, Putin directly ordered the oil trade to be settled in rubles. Although Western countries unanimously resisted this decree, they all secretly used rubles for payment behind the scenes.
In this way, the value of the ruble is linked to oil. As long as Russia continues to trade oil, the ruble will not depreciate. Under Putin's layout, the Russian ruble not only does not depreciate, but continues to appreciate. This appreciation has brought huge benefits to Russia, but the ruble, which is linked to energy, is not stable and will change with the extent of Russia's oil trade.
Now the West has passed a new round of sanctions against Russia and announced that it will end its dependence on Russian oil by the end of this year. Once the West stops importing Russian energy, the value of the ruble will be affected by Russian oil exports, which will make the ruble face a new situation. round of crises, and by that time, an economic crisis may break out in Russia.
It is precisely because of the sanctions issued by the West that Western countries began to import a large amount of Russian energy and began to reserve for winter. Russia also promptly reduced the oil delivery volume of Beixi-1 at this time, so that Western countries could increase Reliance on Russian energy is not a long-term solution after all.
It is precisely because of this that in order to prevent Russia from devaluing the ruble and causing an economic crisis, Putin directly signed an order to repay Western debts in rubles. If Western countries do not accept it, there is no need for Russia to continue to maintain relations with the West, because that is equivalent to Let the ruble devalue, but if the West accepts it, it will undoubtedly intensify the internationalization process of the ruble.
Putin stated at the BRICS meeting some time ago that a new currency settlement system is now needed to replace the US dollar system. At this juncture, Putin suddenly signed an order to settle Western debts with the ruble. In this case, The value of the ruble will be diversified, not only linked to the country's physical industry and oil trade, but also to international trade .
Everything happens for a reason. Putin signed an order to use the ruble to repay the debts of the West. It is very likely to keep the ruble strong and try to avoid a debt crisis. The West’s plan to freeze Russian assets in order to bring down the Russian army in the rear has failed. If this continues, Russia will have no pressure even if it engages in a long-term war.
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